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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#321

Post by nradov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #222
ericmay wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every day investors absolutely buy these shares; these price targets are publicly available and SpaceX shares are equally publicly available. And you can just not buy the shares . It's very straightforward.

> And you can just not buy the shares. It's very straightforward. Sure, but the SEC exists, in theory, to make that decision one you can make an informed decision on, because con artists don't typically put a disclaimer in that says "this is bullshit".

You appear to have misunderstood the role of the SEC. They will investigate civil violations of securities laws but there has been no credible allegation of such here. They don't take responsibility for stock valuation.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#322

Post by fakedang »

someuser54541 wrote: post #117
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Dogs of the Dow

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#323

Post by cmiles8 »

therobots927 wrote: post #310
marcosdumay wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That. I'm personally on the team that think it's honest. But then they have to explain why their marketing numbers are so weird.

I don’t know how $5B+ in marketing for OpenAI is actually possible. To put it in perspective, that’s about the combined campaign budget of the Trump and Harris campaigns. I would expect to be seeing a lot more openAI ads than I’m seeing right now. And they would be everywhere .

“Marketing” typically includes all the people in solutions architecture, developer advocacy, compute credits, and many other things. It’s a ton more than just advertising spend, which is often a minority of what appears on that line item. Given that it’s very plausible those sort of sums are realistic.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#324

Post by tialaramex »

saturn8601 wrote: post #267
tialaramex wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter anyway. The US is done. The empire's peak was towards the end of last century. That's one reason the nostalgia play works so well. A Trump supporter in 2026 can see that their past looks better than their future, they're just wrong to imagine that they can do anything about that. I think it's interesting to analyse Xi, who unlike Trump is aware that the US is failing and that most likely China will…

The UK empire is considered by many to have ended in 1947 with the independence of India. Others say it was finally finished in 1997 with Hong Kong. Either way the UK is still around and while things aren't rosy, they still trudge along and will continue to do so. Meanwhile the US's "supposed upcoming ending" puts them in a better position than the UK was in many different categories. It still has massive resources,…

Obviously the UK didn't vanish in a puff of smoke and nor will the US. America doesn't cease to exist it is just gradually ceasing to matter as I said.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#325

Post by DANmode »

someuser54541 wrote: post #117
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

> savings

> market

These are two different things.

Because there are instruments that make market exposure easier, doesn’t make market exposure correct 100% of the time.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#326

Post by hnisnotbenign »

linsomniac wrote: post #248
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Reminder: Serious people have been predicting a market crash "within the next 3 months" for 3 years now. In that time, the "market" has gone up around 70% (66%-86% depending on the what part you are looking at). A friend of mine and I go out to lunch every 3 months and talk about, among other things, investing. We've made a trope of it, calling out the people who are predicting an imminent market crash every time we…

[flagged]

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#327

Post by ceejayoz »

nradov wrote: post #321
ceejayoz wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And you can just not buy the shares. It's very straightforward. Sure, but the SEC exists, in theory, to make that decision one you can make an informed decision on, because con artists don't typically put a disclaimer in that says "this is bullshit".

You appear to have misunderstood the role of the SEC. They will investigate civil violations of securities laws but there has been no credible allegation of such here. They don't take responsibility for stock valuation.

> They don't take responsibility for stock valuation.

Nice strawman, but that's not what I said.

They can, and do, intervene in things like lying to investors to inflate valuations.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#328

Post by mancerayder »

cmiles8 wrote: post #136
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Stay well diversified, keep investing each month, and take a nap. There are almost surely severe bumps ahead for the AI space and that will likely spill over into the broader market. But unless you’re retiring in the next few years don’t worry about it. You can’t time the ups and downs and the only proven strategy is to just keep investing in a broad indexed portfolio and just ride out. You’ll take a short term hit b…

The S&P is through the roof because of the AI boom - it's bound to crash if the big players do. What's a better index? It's hard to imagine a world in which these broad indexes don't crash too. It's the sector indexes I'd love to understand better from a cyclical point of view, so I can buy something that won't also crash.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#329

Post by ceejayoz »

ericmay wrote: post #318
ceejayoz wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can't make an informed decision on it unless you do your own research… Most retail investors suffer from significant information asymmetry. We have regulations, in part, to mitigate this fact. > Just because you think something is bullshit doesn't mean it is. A point you yourself might remember when arguing on the internet.

> Most retail investors suffer from significant information asymmetry. We have regulations, in part, to mitigate this fact. I don't disagree - however that's a separate point from the OP's it's all a scam and pump-and-dump sentiments and doesn't detract from any point I've made. > A point you yourself might remember when arguing on the internet. I know it feels great to write things like this but I don't care - my po…

A pump and dump is information asymmetry writ large. It’s how it works!

A pump and dump scam doesn’t care if valuation goes down as long as they can exit profitably.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#330

Post by mancerayder »

jghn wrote: post #242
fhdkweig wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date Retirement fund has fluctuated up and down by about 0.1%. It has basically plateaued. I don't think I am losing out on potential short term gains. I like the idea that I have cash available to buy in on the day of the crash.

what if you buy on the day of the crash only to discover that was day one of a year long crash?

Then he's beating those who held right before crash number 1, right?
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