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Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

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Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#51
This makes sense to me as a correlation. Mental health disorders alone seem like they’d contribute significantly.

ADHD, for example, is correlated with both sleep cycle issues and worse outcomes in life (including higher rates of crime and participation in risky activities).

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#52
post #5

Well that sucks, given I have a gene variant related to delayed sleep according to 23andme. Last year I did an experiment of sorts while unemployed for a time and found that if I just slept and woke when tired that my sleep time would naturally recess and eventually "flip" after about a month. My entire life I've wondered why I feel incredibly tired and found waking up so difficult. Turns out that if you follow your…

I also have sleep drift problem and consistenyly had it for the past 7 years. I discovered that it helps when I actually put in effort to fix my sleep schedule. Like getting off screen 1 hour before I sleep. Boxing bedtime to 23:00-08:00. And similar things. It is just really difficult to fix for me but it doesn't feel impossible. I have made progress in last 6 months but trying different methods and only some portio…

I have had a similar experience. I would find my sleep schedule constantly drifting later and later, which made it harder to wake up in the morning, so I would self medicate with caffeine which made me anxious, which contributed to the same cycle. But even when I stopped taking caffeine I always found it difficult to actually go to bed at the same time every day.

What finally worked for me were red light glasses. I wear the True Dark Twilights Classics (though I’m sure there are other brands on the market) for 2-3 hours before bed time and I’m actually sleepy. Way more effective than taking melatonin tablets ever was in my experience. And I haven’t even had to substantially change my screen usage either (though the glasses do make everything come out monochrome, which makes it difficult to use anything that’s not in color blind mode).

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#53
post #34

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

The study is clearly about correlation and not causation, but still the term "important predictor" keeps triggering me. People can't sleep due to stress or noise or disease (e.g. coughing), and while "predictor" seems to be normal science lingo I feel it nudges the conclusion of this study into the direction of causation instead of very clearly saying that it is pure correlation. Nobody goes to bed and wants to wake…

But they choose to. Alcohol, caffeine in the afternoon, just not realizing blackout curtains matter, lights or displays on in the room... you can't help someone who isn't making bad choices, but most people can make simple choices that improve their sleep a lot!

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#54
post #7
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you cut out all caffeine?

> conventional wisdom doesn't seem to stick

I wouldn’t say cutting out all caffeine is conventional wisdom. Every sleep specialist (sample size of 3) I have spoken to has basically said, while they don't recommend caffeine, if you only drink it early in the day it’s probably fine.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#55
post #16

Couldn’t this effect be classic cause vs correlation? Perhaps someone who has a consistent schedule is hypothetically more likely to make healthier choices on average?

tfa: "Results were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health factors"

Would love to see a causal model [0] to help better understand all of the mediators considered as well as confounders. I'm close to finishing up an interesting read from Judea Pearl/Dana Mackenzie - The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect [1]. Talks alot about Causal Models, Causal Inference, the 3 ladders of causation, etc. I liked the graphical approach to help outline exactly how one thinks about direct and indirect effects and how it facilitates counterfactual analysis and causal mediation analysis.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_model

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Why

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#56
post #5

Well that sucks, given I have a gene variant related to delayed sleep according to 23andme. Last year I did an experiment of sorts while unemployed for a time and found that if I just slept and woke when tired that my sleep time would naturally recess and eventually "flip" after about a month. My entire life I've wondered why I feel incredibly tired and found waking up so difficult. Turns out that if you follow your…

I also have sleep drift problem and consistenyly had it for the past 7 years. I discovered that it helps when I actually put in effort to fix my sleep schedule. Like getting off screen 1 hour before I sleep. Boxing bedtime to 23:00-08:00. And similar things. It is just really difficult to fix for me but it doesn't feel impossible. I have made progress in last 6 months but trying different methods and only some portio…

Good points, if I am careful about caffeine and do all of that it's not unmanageable. Being outdoors and camping and getting good physical activity is the best I found. But it's a struggle for me.

> Also have the same experience fighting depression-like symptoms and anxiety. It just takes a lot of time and is difficult. Some people just don't have these problems and I do but this doesn't mean I am genetically attuned to be like this and I can't do anything. It is just difficult.

Should I mention that "neurodivergence" and different sleep pattern genes have a large co-morbidity? E.g. many people with anxiety / ADHD / dyslexia / depression / etc have a very high likelihood of having delayed sleep or other genes.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#57

I kinda realize that the most important factor for personal success (whatever kind of success you want) is mental stability. Like, John Carmack said that he NEVER burned out, never went into a dark corner (verbatim from his interview), and everyone agrees that he works like a machine. And I don't think he actually spent a lot of mental training to achieve that stability, because, he has been like that from a young ag…

I sometimes think about the same. Its a sad truth that if you bad days those days may be at the worst moment. Sleep definitly helps for a good mind but also exercise!

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#58
post #39

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

Racing stripes would be a better example. Though negligible, a hand out the window does have a causal impact on speed. On the other hand racing stripes have zero impact, but do correlate to the speed of the car.

What about speed holes?

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#59
post #43
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point is that while it does act as negative acceleration there isn't a causal relationship with the actual speed of the car, which is mainly related to how far the gas pedal is pressed.

Drag is a causitive input to speed though. nextCarSpeed(currentSpeed, wheelPower, dragForce, mass, deltaTime) = currentSpeed + ((wheelPower / currentSpeed - dragForce) / mass) * deltaTime Increase "dragForce", and the resulting car speed decreases. That is a causal input, not an association.

In this example you're determining the speed of the car based on the wind flow on your hand. Putting the book in front might slow down the car, and it will probably also slow down the flow on the hand. However, if you still try to determine the speed of the car from the air flow on the hand, you'll probably be off, because car speed and wind flow aren't linked like that when the book is in the picture.
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