Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023) • Hacker News Board

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#31

Post by hobofan » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:40 PM UTC

estearum wrote: post #24

djoldman wrote: post #17

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

Bad example because yes it does make the car slow down.

I think the point is that while it does act as negative acceleration there isn't a causal relationship with the actual speed of the car, which is mainly related to how far the gas pedal is pressed.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#32

Post by c03 » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:40 PM UTC

djoldman wrote: post #17

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

>Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down.

...yes it does?

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#33

Post by ozgrakkurt » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC

elcritch wrote: post #5

Well that sucks, given I have a gene variant related to delayed sleep according to 23andme. Last year I did an experiment of sorts while unemployed for a time and found that if I just slept and woke when tired that my sleep time would naturally recess and eventually "flip" after about a month. My entire life I've wondered why I feel incredibly tired and found waking up so difficult. Turns out that if you follow your…

I also have sleep drift problem and consistenyly had it for the past 7 years.

I discovered that it helps when I actually put in effort to fix my sleep schedule. Like getting off screen 1 hour before I sleep. Boxing bedtime to 23:00-08:00. And similar things.

It is just really difficult to fix for me but it doesn't feel impossible. I have made progress in last 6 months but trying different methods and only some portion of that progress stays permanent.

Also have the same experience fighting depression-like symptoms and anxiety. It just takes a lot of time and is difficult. Some people just don't have these problems and I do but this doesn't mean I am genetically attuned to be like this and I can't do anything. It is just difficult.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#34

Post by bflesch » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC

djoldman wrote: post #17

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

The study is clearly about correlation and not causation, but still the term "important predictor" keeps triggering me. People can't sleep due to stress or noise or disease (e.g. coughing), and while "predictor" seems to be normal science lingo I feel it nudges the conclusion of this study into the direction of causation instead of very clearly saying that it is pure correlation.

Nobody goes to bed and wants to wake up 2 hours later.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#35

Post by y-curious » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC

estearum wrote: post #24

djoldman wrote: post #17

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

Bad example because yes it does make the car slow down.

Original comment assumes the size of my hands is not 50m^2. Very presumptuous.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#36

Post by al_borland » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:42 PM UTC

csomar wrote: post #13

shykes wrote: post #2

Well, I'm screwed...

Are you? Would be happy to die by 65-70 instead of struggling through 80s…

No one knows for sure how they will be in their old age. My grandmother didn’t seem to struggle until her mid to late 90s. That’s a lot of years to leave on the table. Years that allowed her to meet and enjoy time with her children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren.

Had she died at 65, I wouldn’t have even known her. Instead she was around for my entire childhood and well into adulthood.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#37

Post by ozgrakkurt » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:42 PM UTC

acron0 wrote: post #3

shykes wrote: post #2

Well, I'm screwed...

My thought exactly. For people who struggle with this, and conventional wisdom doesn't seem to stick, what are we supposed to do?

Conventional wisdom does work for me but it is immensely difficult. I would say take the advice seriously but don't take the timeframe or problem difficulty assesment coming from other people.

It is only natural that it takes months to years to fix a problem if you had the problem for years.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#38

Post by asah » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC

estearum wrote: post #24

djoldman wrote: post #17

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

Bad example because yes it does make the car slow down.

But what color is that bike shed ??? /s

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#39

Post by Bjartr » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:44 PM UTC

djoldman wrote: post #17

As always with a lot of these: it's not saying causation. You might measure the speed of your car by putting your hand out of the window and notice that the wind force on your hand is strong when the car goes fast. Putting your hand out of the window and then blocking the wind with a book doesn't make the car slow down. Keyword: "associated" EDIT: I meant to communicate that it doesn't make the car slow down as much…

Racing stripes would be a better example. Though negligible, a hand out the window does have a causal impact on speed.

On the other hand racing stripes have zero impact, but do correlate to the speed of the car.

Re: Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)

#40

Post by markus_zhang » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 12:45 PM UTC

I kinda realize that the most important factor for personal success (whatever kind of success you want) is mental stability.

Like, John Carmack said that he NEVER burned out, never went into a dark corner (verbatim from his interview), and everyone agrees that he works like a machine. And I don't think he actually spent a lot of mental training to achieve that stability, because, he has been like that from a young age. This is THE best thing you can have in the world, if you want to achieve something, anything. If you don't have the mental toughness, you won't be able to make through that 10,000 hours (cliche, I know). I guess that's also why many self-help book talk about being consistent -- to be consistent, is to have mental stability. And I think there is a whole difference, between someone who trains his mental to stay stable for 6 months, then collapse, from someone who actually doesn't need to train and just be stable somehow.

This also leads me to realize that good sleep is one of the fundamentals of a stable mind. As a parent, I actually don't remember when was the last time I had a good sleep, and my definition of a night of good sleep is perhaps just trivial for someone else. At the same time, I consider myself lucky, because at least I don't suffer from serious mental issues. I still have a job and a house, and that's better than many out there.

This then leads me to despise the human body. It is a machine so delicate that you have to be very lucky to be super productive, whatever your definition of being productive is. It seems to ignore the input in short term (e.g. you can eat garbage food for a month and nothing really happens, or, you can sleep 4-6 hours every day for the last 6 years and still function normally), but once the long term shows up it is very hard to reverse. And there are so many theories focused on it that we have no idea which one is best for the individual. You might as well spend years doing A/B test on yourself and still have no idea what the hell is going on. Or you need to be super rich to have some medical team monitor you 7/24 to figure out what the hell is going on.