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Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

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Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#111

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jmward01 wrote: post #47
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole" [1]. So "rapidly de-carbonising" is wrong. But decarbonising per se is correct. [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...

Chin's emissions rose by 20% from 2017 to 2024 and then flat-lined in 2025 with emissions expected to decline in 2026. That is what decarbonization looks like, the rate of change has swung massively in the right direction. The .3 in 2025 will likely turn into -1.5 in 2026 and more after that. They have embraced alternative energy because it is now making them money and gaining them influence. That trend won't change…

> That is what decarbonization looks like

Sure, I gave you that. But you went further. China is not “rapidly de-carbonizing right now.” It’s forecast to start rapidly decarbonizing in the next decade.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#112

Post by JumpCrisscross »

defrost wrote: post #84
AuthAuth wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its only falling per Chinese gov data. The trend since 2019 is for them to downplay emission data and when the next international review comes around we'll have seen that it was actually increasing for the past 3 years and everything will be revised and they will say oh its decreasing starting from now and everyone will forget that the gov stats were lying and take their word that its decreasing.

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) provides the most complete dataset tracking the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main driver of climate change. Every day, OCO-2 measures sunlight reflected from Earth’s surface to infer the dry-air column-averaged CO₂ mixing ratio and provides around 100,000 cloud-free observations.

…and what do those data say about China’s emissions?

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#113

Post by karmakurtisaani »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #104
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much of that is just outsourcing much of our industry to Asia/etc.?

Not as much as people would have you believe.

What a terrible answer.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#115

Post by frm88 »

teravor wrote: post #101
bulbar wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We will develop geo engineering with our quantum computers, fueled by cold fusion reactors. It's not like we just decide to solve something and then it just happens. There can also be serious outcomes of errors are made that are more serious than climate itself.

only if you want to do something really exotic/scifi. volcanoes have shown us how to do it relatively easily. conservatively, "$18 billion per year per degree Celsius of warming avoided".

Reduce the efficiency of solar energy generation by 5-15%. Best build alternative energy sources before attempting geo-engineering.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#116

Post by ndsipa_pomu »

teravor wrote: post #79

I wouldn't be too worried about it this century at least. if things look like they are going to get bad we will resort to geoengineering, and once we get a taste for it we will further optimize global temperatures to our liking. perversely, global warming earlier than expected is a good thing [for us] as it will wipe away all meaningful opposition to geoengineering. note how according to them having 50C days is a lik…

I'm not convinced that geoengineering is feasible when we can't even seem to stop churning CO2 into the atmosphere. It's far easier to stop the fossil fuel burning than to scrub the atmosphere or set up huge space mirrors, so why do you think that we'll manage to fix the climate? Far more likely is a massive population die off and a collapse of our modern society. At least some people made a lot of money from burning our future.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#117

Post by moritzwarhier »

teravor wrote: post #79

I wouldn't be too worried about it this century at least. if things look like they are going to get bad we will resort to geoengineering, and once we get a taste for it we will further optimize global temperatures to our liking. perversely, global warming earlier than expected is a good thing [for us] as it will wipe away all meaningful opposition to geoengineering. note how according to them having 50C days is a lik…

Wishful thinking, at best

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#118

Post by moritzwarhier »

exabrial wrote: post #83

Germany just shut down several perfectly fine nuclear reactors and has some of the dirtiest electricity generation in the entire world They need to look inward before pointing outward.

> The German Physics Society and the German Meteorological Society

are not the German government.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#119

Post by orwin »

dataflow wrote: post #74
leonidasv wrote: post #10

This is the most important part most people don't get: > And what would 3 °C mean for Germany? > FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts. 3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.

> This is the most important part most people don't get I wouldn't say "people don't get" it when it's not well-communicated. When the headline always says 2-3 degrees, of course people are going to shrug.

It was always explained that way to me though. the "Our house is burning, and we are looking away" speech was like 20 years ago and it was pretty clear then than average increase in temps mostly mean higher maximums and minimums.

Nowadays, people who never did anything to consume less (and made fun of people who stopped taking the plane) can't hide behind the "we didn't know" because everybody knew, so they hide behind the "it was not predicted to be as bad" and other "the scientists explained that poorly", but we know what's up, even when they lie to themselves.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#120

Post by defrost »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #112
defrost wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) provides the most complete dataset tracking the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main driver of climate change. Every day, OCO-2 measures sunlight reflected from Earth’s surface to infer the dry-air column-averaged CO₂ mixing ratio and provides around 100,000 cloud-free observations.

…and what do those data say about China’s emissions?

I'd love to know- ATM I've been on the hop all day and haven't had the time or the access to have a look see .. NASA datasets have less live website presentation this last year.

The main point to be landed by that terse comment was that the world isn't merely reliant on CCP statements.

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