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Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

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Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#31

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jmward01 wrote: post #24
alephnerd wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

You conveniently left the US out of that and the US's role in driving global emissions. China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now just like they rapidly spun up. They are an issue, but the US and its policies have a massive impact on this problem. Same with Europe. Rapidly adopting renewables and not externalizing our emissions to other countries would go a long way. I have seen the argument shift from 'T…

> China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now

Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole" [1].

So "rapidly de-carbonising" is wrong. But decarbonising per se is correct.

[1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#32

Post by addaon »

danielheath wrote: post #9
Madmallard wrote: post #4

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

Among _many_ other things, 3 degrees Celsius globally means more evaporation over oceans, which makes the air denser. Denser air carries more momentum, which means more frequent (and more severe) hurricanes.

> more evaporation over oceans, which makes the air denser

More humid air is less dense than less humid air at the same temperature and otherwise same composition. H2O has a molar mass of 18, vs ~29 for dry air.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#33

Post by JumpCrisscross »

musha68k wrote: post #30

UK official body of actuaries basically says we are on trajectory of "Extreme" rating: > 3°C or more by 2050. Multiple climate tipping points triggered, tipping cascade. > over 4 billion deaths If so, big shifts would already be imminently felt within next 5-10 years. Remember that there would basically be no place to hide from these direct or knock-on effects. Not for any self sufficient "prepper with a Mac Studio"…

> there will basically no place to hide from these direct or any knock-on effects

This is nonsense. (And your own source doesn't support the claim that the consequences of global warming will be unmitigable for anyone.)

Many parts of the world will become milder for human occupation as a result of climate change. And nothing realistically forecast is unavoidable with wealth–rich countries will A/C and seawall their ways around the consequences.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#34

Post by AuthAuth »

jmward01 wrote: post #24
alephnerd wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

You conveniently left the US out of that and the US's role in driving global emissions. China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now just like they rapidly spun up. They are an issue, but the US and its policies have a massive impact on this problem. Same with Europe. Rapidly adopting renewables and not externalizing our emissions to other countries would go a long way. I have seen the argument shift from 'T…

China is not rapidly de-carbonizing. They've put off even starting to transition to clean energy by 15 years and they lag behind the other nations. They shouldnt be where the US is as the US has done an awful job. They should be where the EU is.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#35

Post by JumpCrisscross »

cebert wrote: post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

You may enjoy Ian McEwan's What We Can Know: "Civilization as we know it ends. A pair of scholars in 2120, risking death from roving predatory gangs, travel across what’s left of England in search of a long-lost, epoch-making poem titled 'A Corona for Vivien.' They are the last, it seems, historians alive" [1]. (It's less apocalyptic than this makes it seem, at least relative to the modern apocalyptic genre à la Mad Max.)

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/books/review/ian-mcewan-w...

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#36

Post by AuthAuth »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #31
jmward01 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You conveniently left the US out of that and the US's role in driving global emissions. China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now just like they rapidly spun up. They are an issue, but the US and its policies have a massive impact on this problem. Same with Europe. Rapidly adopting renewables and not externalizing our emissions to other countries would go a long way. I have seen the argument shift from 'T…

> China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole" [1]. So "rapidly de-carbonising" is wrong. But decarbonising per se is correct. [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...

Its only falling per Chinese gov data. The trend since 2019 is for them to downplay emission data and when the next international review comes around we'll have seen that it was actually increasing for the past 3 years and everything will be revised and they will say oh its decreasing starting from now and everyone will forget that the gov stats were lying and take their word that its decreasing.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#37

Post by crystal_revenge »

puskavi wrote: post #21

EU has done its part, but all efforts are just drop in the ocean. Also, can these studies be trusted? EU basically throws money anything "green" (except buying forests and making them protected), so naturally these studies benefit from it.

> EU basically throws money anything "green"

Including paying to have wood pellets shipped across the Atlantic using bunker fuel and then calling it "bioenergy"

The EU is 'clean' largely out of it's own limited access to fossil fuels and other energy resources rather than because they are "doing their part".

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#38

Post by red75prime »

puskavi wrote: post #21

EU has done its part, but all efforts are just drop in the ocean. Also, can these studies be trusted? EU basically throws money anything "green" (except buying forests and making them protected), so naturally these studies benefit from it.

Protecting forests is good and all, but it will not reverse climate change. We'll have to stop all fossil fuel burning and, additionally, sequester around 600 billion tonnes of CO2 (in addition to all the natural carbon sinks) to get back to +1.5C by 2100.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#39

Post by grahamburger »

Madmallard wrote: post #4

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

As I understand it just means there's a lot more energy in the atmosphere. Like imagine the amount of energy it takes to increase water temperature in a pot by 3° and scale it up to the planet. All that energy makes everything bigger, badder, and less predictable. Longer, dryer droughts; bigger, longer winter storms, etc.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#40

Post by defrost »

myaccountonhn wrote: post #28
cute_boi wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have already accepted that there is nothing plebs can do about climate change. I can try hard by using public transport, using less plastic, and using less air conditioning, but all of those efforts are rendered useless by rich people going on vacation in yachts or private planes. And if you talk about reducing meat consumption, Americans will go mad, lol. Ordinary plebs trying to prevent climate change is like sub…

They're not rendered useless. Do you argue the same way about voting too? Ultimately consumption is 2/3s of all emissions, and the majority of it is not billionaires.

Are you saying that no billionaire profits from the consumption of others?

And, if some do, do they not maximise that profit by seeking to maximise the consumption of others?

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