Financing the AI boom: from cash flows to debt [pdf]

Post by oblio » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:39 AM UTC

etskinner wrote: post #46

jordanb wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moreover what would a bailout even look like? The banks got loan guarantees from the government essentially. But like what happens if the government guarantees open ai's loans if the company is structurally unprofitable? Does the government create an operating subsidy?

Inference is cheap, only the training is expensive. Both Bernie and Trump have suggested doing a partial government takeover of the big AI companies to start a sovereign wealth fund. So it would look like the government taking ownership, letting investors lose their stake, and then operating as inference-only, which would turn a profit

Post by cperciva » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:47 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #37

cperciva wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. In inflation adjusted dollars spending on AI dwarfs previous "megaprojects". But as a fraction of GDP it's fairly modest -- comparable to the Apollo Project. It's a sign of how much the economy has grown that under "1% of GDP for a few years" now is far bigger than "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" was in the late 1800s.

You seem to be implying that railway spending was "over 10% of GDP for a few decades" in the late 1800s. If yes then can you trace that back to a methodology? I tried and found much lower numbers, around 3% average over the peak decade. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44805979 Your estimate of current AI spending is also low. Hyperscaler capex alone is around 2% of US GDP, not including other costs (neoclouds, e…

Post by oblio » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:49 AM UTC

fragmede wrote: post #52

oblio wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Inference is cheap We have absolutely 0 hard proof of this. We have a lot of wishful thinking but no hard numbers, audited numbers from any public entity. I'd love to see them if they are available.

Where have you looked? OpenRouter? Your own experiments? From running various models locally on my MacBook, and paying for the laptop and the electricity to power it, but not the training run, as all I did was install some software that downloaded models from Hugging Face, yes it's cheap. Well, the hardware was several thousand dollars, so not cheap on a personal level, but not unaffordable either.

Post by BrenBarn » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:53 AM UTC

nativeit wrote: post #25

senectus1 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

pre-echos of "too big to fail"

I’m not sure I understand these references. The banks were too big to fail specifically because they were banks involved with the finances of every major industry and government, not simply because their (arguably specious) valuations, or even market caps, had a ton of zeroes on them. What’s the argument for OpenAI being so inherently critical and interweaved with the rest of the economy that it can’t be allowed to f…

Post by MichaelMoser123 » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 3:12 AM UTC