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No, we won't - there's significant capex on all that infra that will have to be paid down, and we won't have datacenters to help pay for it.
Call me overly cynical, but I’m willing to bet we’re already footing the bill in more than a few ways.
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I’m not sure I understand these references. The banks were too big to fail specifically because they were banks involved with the finances of every major industry and government, not simply because their (arguably specious) valuations, or even market caps, had a ton of zeroes on them. What’s the argument for OpenAI being so inherently critical and interweaved with the rest of the economy that it can’t be allowed to f…
Moreover what would a bailout even look like? The banks got loan guarantees from the government essentially. But like what happens if the government guarantees open ai's loans if the company is structurally unprofitable? Does the government create an operating subsidy?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
if growth doesn't materialize, then the infrastructure build out plays out exactly like the dot com bubble. the biggest difference this time around is the earnings. if those fall, the rest crubmles.
How are the earnings different this time? Can you add any color to that?
[1] a broad and poorly defined group of "we" - typically investors and tech-bro types.
Usefulness aside, I see little evidence AI is making money (profit, not revenue) for any firm whose profit doesn't come from the AI itself or the infrastructure, including supply chain. I'd love to hear a counterexample. One such example would be of a hypothetical company that does translations for payment, and with AI they now are making more profit because they use AI to do the translation rather than pay a transla…
AI has been making a ton for advertisers for decades. Think Facebook ads, Google search ads, etc. That's a different and older kind of AI than chatbots, but it's not fundamentally different, but AI is the engine that makes their ad targeting so effective, and why they're some of the most profitable large companies on the planet.
It is. We are talking about LLMs here.
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We don't have to spend it on hardware with such short use-life to spend down those dragon hoards... The amount of money we are talking about could have given the entire US high speed commuter rail.
Or treatment programs for addicts. There are a lot of economic benefits to helping folks on the lower side of the income spectrum.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m not sure I understand these references. The banks were too big to fail specifically because they were banks involved with the finances of every major industry and government, not simply because their (arguably specious) valuations, or even market caps, had a ton of zeroes on them. What’s the argument for OpenAI being so inherently critical and interweaved with the rest of the economy that it can’t be allowed to f…
Moreover what would a bailout even look like? The banks got loan guarantees from the government essentially. But like what happens if the government guarantees open ai's loans if the company is structurally unprofitable? Does the government create an operating subsidy?
So it would look like the government taking ownership, letting investors lose their stake, and then operating as inference-only, which would turn a profit
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m not sure I understand these references. The banks were too big to fail specifically because they were banks involved with the finances of every major industry and government, not simply because their (arguably specious) valuations, or even market caps, had a ton of zeroes on them. What’s the argument for OpenAI being so inherently critical and interweaved with the rest of the economy that it can’t be allowed to f…
“National security! We can’t let China win the AI race!” Or some BS
Earlier quoted context omitted.
We don't have to spend it on hardware with such short use-life to spend down those dragon hoards... The amount of money we are talking about could have given the entire US high speed commuter rail.
Or every teacher gets classroom supplies for five years. Or treatment programs for addicts. There are a lot of economic benefits to helping folks on the lower side of the income spectrum.
Personally, I’d rather the money be spent on datacenters. And as it goes, the guys with the money also would prefer that.
High growth scenario and medium growth scenario (Graph 2). I feel like an idiot asking - aren't we missing some, or at least one, scenario? Is "medium growth" for the next 4 years really the worst people can think of?
Essentially yes? The stock market operates entirely on the assumption that the lines will keep going up. As soon as they flatten the whole thing collapses onto itself.