281–290 of 378 posts
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What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?
Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.
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Why should a retail investor never buy derivatives? spreads?
You almost always lose a lot of money if you're seeking safety. Protection from downside risk on your S&P500 investments may cost 20-30% of your investment at which point you're better off just selling the investment and hoping it doesn't go up by that much.
What? Absolutely not.
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Takes a lot of IaaS to support the GPUs and workflows, all of that kit is immediately re-useable as general purpose compute to exit the commercial DCs they operate out of today. Much of their current debt fuelled expansion isn't singular to AI. The circular narrative ignores this.
Without the massive investiment in GPUs, what is the excessive IaaS going to support?
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Other than having a nice management UI, what does Virtualbox do that qemu doesn't these days?
Run your years-old VirtualBox images? If I were to guess; maybe QEMU does that too.
qemu definitely won't do that out of the box, so, yeah, VirtualBox is better than qemu there. But I bet there's a fancy-pants GUI out there that has an import wizard that will handle that for you.
[0] https://www.virtualbox.org/manual/topics/storage.html#vdidet...>
Ed Zitron must be feeling quite validated :-)
he is correct on most counts and for the rest I lack the competence to vouch for or denounce his research. a rare sight!
I think he is wrong when he says AI is useless. I agree that it's far from being as useful as assholes like Amodei claim it is, but it clearly has use cases.
Then again, that is the weak part of Zitron's argument, and laughably the only thing his critics like to engage.
When he brings up the bonkers economics of AI, and how absolutely unsustainable it is, his arguments are very solid. I am still to see one good counter to him there. It's not like he lacks haters who could try.
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> Every day investors absolutely buy these shares; these price targets are publicly available and SpaceX shares are equally publicly available. And you can just not buy the shares . It's very straightforward.
> And you can just not buy the shares. It's very straightforward. Sure, but the SEC exists, in theory, to make that decision one you can make an informed decision on, because con artists don't typically put a disclaimer in that says "this is bullshit".
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> The flaw in your thinking is assuming it's actually worth the IPO price. Then don't buy it at the IPO price? The bullshit artist will have to lower their price until there are takers in the market. > If I'm a bullshit artist, $100 is great, $50 is good, and I'm just trying to avoid the $0 scenario. They're not bullshit artists, they're greedy. If you think you're pulling one over on someone $100 is great but $200 i…
> Then don't buy it at the IPO price? I think you're getting lost here. If I invested $0.50/share, I know my company is worth realistically $10/share, and I can convince you to buy at $100/share, and it plunges to $50/share before I can offload, I am still a pretty happy camper . Retail investors are the marks, not the scammer here. > They're not bullshit artists, they're greedy. Those aren't mutually exclusive. Musk…
> Retail investors are the marks, not the scammer here.
Retail investors who aren't sophisticated enough to do analysis and evaluate equities shouldn't buy them less they potentially lose (or make) money. You're inventing a scam and scammers where none exist here. Uninformed retail investors, and who knows how much money they even have, should be buying index funds which is what is advised by investment firms, CFPs, and more.
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Sure, but this applies to any sufficiently advanced conspiracy theory and wouldn't be limited to markets. Secondly you the individual can just not buy the shares if you think they are overvalued. You're confusing your own interpretation of the valuation of some company with "the right valuation". Maybe you're just wrong and they're not over valued? Maybe you're right? It doesn't matter much, except you can buy shares…
What I'm saying is that it's a very small world. There's no conspiracy here just friendship and love.
Just friendship and love :)
There is AI data center overcapacity already. The KOSPI crashed last week, and it's a leading indicator for the cyclical hardware industry. It already had been that indicator in the 2000 bubble. I don't know what possessed Ellison to ruin a functioning company, but it will be interesting if he gets a margin call for ORCL's other debt exposures, which are Ellison's massive loans against his ORCL stock.
Well it seems like he bought the “AGI is 2 years away” line. As did… pretty much everyone in Silicon Valley.
They are just rich. And also assholes.
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> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…
What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?
Assuming you are the average person, and not a financial professional, using actual financial hedging instruments properly is unlikely, and far more likely to just increase risk and lower expected return.
A realistic way for an American citizen to reduce risk in the current market is to have a globally diversified portfolio that under-allocates to the US.