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S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

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Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#251

Post by inigyou »

someuser54541 wrote: post #117
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Just sell all your ETFs and buy them again when the market goes up or down. You're very likely to lose money with options and you will definitely lose a lot of money if you buy enough options to hedge your full exposure.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#252

Post by inigyou »

marojejian wrote: post #207
pid-1 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hold short term debt (e.g money market funds or SOFR ETFs). Then you will have cash in hand if either stocks fall or yelds raise. Never buy derivatives as a non institutional investor.

Why should a retail investor never buy derivatives? spreads?

You almost always lose a lot of money if you're seeking safety. Protection from downside risk on your S&P500 investments may cost 20-30% of your investment at which point you're better off just selling the investment and hoping it doesn't go up by that much.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#253

Post by jghn »

pedrosuave wrote: post #249

Is just wild to me people thinking ai is tulip fever or a massive bubble when every part of my life ai is entering. Even these forums 35 percent of posts are ai or vibe code related. At work (medical field) ai is replacing scribes and it can read an ecg better than your average doc. TSMC and chip companies are using in their pipelines. Pharm and bio companies are using. Archeologists are using to decode scrolls and f…

People said similar things leading up to the dot com crash. The commercialization of the internet was indeed a watershed moment. That didn't mean it wasn't a bubble. Both can be true at the same time.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#254

Post by [deleted] »

inigyou wrote: post #251
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Just sell all your ETFs and buy them again when the market goes up or down. You're very likely to lose money with options and you will definitely lose a lot of money if you buy enough options to hedge your full exposure.

[deleted]

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#255

Post by url00 »

Aurornis wrote: post #189
LaurensBER wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When we tried to do a pilot with their cloud we couldn't even sign-up. None of the corporate credit cards were accepted. In addition to that the form basically only worked in Edge. We emailed support, they changed something on the backend. It still did not work. We gave up. In retrospective that was a very clear warning sign that their priorities were misguided. I'm glad we did not waste any further time and effort o…

I signed up for Oracle Cloud. I couldn’t get any of the free trial options to work due to capacity limits. I couldn’t get my payment method added so I could pay for real servers. Then they terminated my free trial early with no explanation. I tried to add a payment method again and it didn’t work. It turned into a bigger joke when Oracle sales people started emailing me to ask how my trial was going. They must have b…

Similar experience. It was surreal coming from the (relatively) simple waters of Azure and Digital Ocean.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#256

Post by chasd00 »

someuser54541 wrote: post #117
lelanthran wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes. It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair. Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first…

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

> What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market?

honestly, if you're >= 10 years away from needing that money (retirement or whatever) then the best hedge is to ignore the news and just keep contributing to your investment as always. I got caught up in a couple moments (tarif drama April before last was one) where i panicked and sold and then it only took a few months to get back to even meanwhile 18% of my capital gains were now due to the taxman. I wrote a check to the IRS for 10's of thousands for no reason except over reacting and ignoring every financial advisor's advice.

if you're going to need your investment money within 10 years then you need to get advice on how to start reducing risk (and therefore reward) because you don't have time to survive and repair from a crash.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#257

Post by Schiendelman »

pedrosuave wrote: post #249

Is just wild to me people thinking ai is tulip fever or a massive bubble when every part of my life ai is entering. Even these forums 35 percent of posts are ai or vibe code related. At work (medical field) ai is replacing scribes and it can read an ecg better than your average doc. TSMC and chip companies are using in their pipelines. Pharm and bio companies are using. Archeologists are using to decode scrolls and f…

People whose job is writing code want it to be a bubble. It's probably not.

LBMs will eat robotics, and that alone will eat a double digit percentage of labor.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#258

Post by jr3592 »

inigyou wrote: post #251
someuser54541 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market? A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?

Just sell all your ETFs and buy them again when the market goes up or down. You're very likely to lose money with options and you will definitely lose a lot of money if you buy enough options to hedge your full exposure.

And risk missing out on the gains in the market that can and likely will happen between then and now.

Most researchers have shown that attempting to play the market is likely to fail in the end. Set it and forget it. Ride the wave.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#259

Post by marcosdumay »

an0malous wrote: post #66
cmiles8 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The general fallacy of the “but inference is profitable” argument is that it tends to ignore all the costs of building and training the model. Given the fact that 1) that’s not trivial, and 2) the arms race underway means one can’t stop training, then it ruins the financial picture. It’s like saying a new apartment building is “profitable” because the monthly income covers the monthly running costs, but ignoring the…

> The general fallacy of the “but inference is profitable” argument is that it tends to ignore all the costs of building and training the model. Given the fact that 1) that’s not trivial, and 2) the arms race underway means one can’t stop training, then it ruins the financial picture. Or that it’s all hearsay and no one has released financials yet?

xAI financials are public, and OpenAI financials leaked a short while ago.

That's the best possible interpretation of them.

The other possible interpretation is that they are manipulating the numbers (that they have to show to investors) and inference isn't actually profitable either. If they are not manipulating the numbers right now, both companies have a serious case of uncontrolled operational costs that they have to solve too.

Re: S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

#260

Post by fhdkweig »

jghn wrote: post #242
fhdkweig wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I moved 80% of my money out of Vanguard's Target Date Retirement funds and into a money market on June 1st. In the 1.5 months since, the remaining Target Date Retirement fund has fluctuated up and down by about 0.1%. It has basically plateaued. I don't think I am losing out on potential short term gains. I like the idea that I have cash available to buy in on the day of the crash.

what if you buy on the day of the crash only to discover that was day one of a year long crash?

I feel that even if that happens, at least I wasn't fully exposed to the first drop.
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