For those wondering, I found a post with a graph showing actual temperature rather than std dev from mean
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tompickerell_this-graph-shoul...
A graph that should be front-page news
191–200 of 469 posts
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#192Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#193If we assume that governments aren't going to address climate change and coordination between private citizens is unlikely to be enough to stop it, has anyone written anything on what individuals should do to avoid its effects? It feels like we are at the point where we should be talking a lot more about how live decent lives assuming that prevention and mitigation are unlikely.
You're looking for "deep adaptation"
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#194Representing that as a "climate spiral" would make it unnecessary to adjust for the seasons, and the original data could be used instead of a statistical view. It makes it easy for anyone to see the trend. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_spiral - https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-daily-global-t... - https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals/
The climate spiral can be misleading though, because it's natural for a viewer to interpret the change in terms of area.
Then, the increase from 1.5° to 2° looks much, much larger than the increase from 0° to 0.5°.
So it's misleading in terms of making recent warming seem even worse than it is. Now, of course, you might argue that is justified in spirit because the negative consequences from warming grow faster than linear... but that doesn't make it any less misleading in terms of the temperature change it is communicating.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#195Representing that as a "climate spiral" would make it unnecessary to adjust for the seasons, and the original data could be used instead of a statistical view. It makes it easy for anyone to see the trend. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_spiral - https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-daily-global-t... - https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals/
Polar coordinates are such a nice way to visualise periodic data.
They often are not, because they highly distort shape and size. Values that are smaller than the mean occupy much less space (area-wise) and seem less significant than they really are, while values that are larger than the mean occupy much more space (area-wise) and seem more significant than they really are.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Air bubbles from ancient atmosphere caught in ice -> historic CO2 levels -> historic average global temps. This is fairly 1:1 linkage, and the Earth-heating effect of atmospheric CO2 was established in what, early 20th century or so?
>historic CO2 levels -> historic average global temps But this seems to imply that global temperatures are only dependent on CO2 levels. That is a pretty flawed assumption...
No this is 'calibrated' against other research like fossils (indicating which species were living where & when) & probably more.
It's called science for a reason... (not back-of-a-napkin stuff)
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#197Representing that as a "climate spiral" would make it unnecessary to adjust for the seasons, and the original data could be used instead of a statistical view. It makes it easy for anyone to see the trend. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_spiral - https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/visualizing-daily-global-t... - https://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/spirals/
The climate spiral can be misleading though, because it's natural for a viewer to interpret the change in terms of area. Then, the increase from 1.5° to 2° looks much, much larger than the increase from 0° to 0.5°. So it's misleading in terms of making recent warming seem even worse than it is. Now, of course, you might argue that is justified in spirit because the negative consequences from warming grow faster than…
It would be easy to adjust the radius so that the area increase is proportional to the temperature increase.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
The economic system itself is incompatible with the physical reality of a finite planet. The ones steering society choose to crash and ruin everything rather than to jeopardize their positions in power. That obvious failure in morals and ethics, basic principles of adult responsibility really, is made possible by a lack of rational reflection in the populace. Objective truth has to take precedence over subjective des…
> The economic system itself is incompatible with the physical reality of a finite planet The economic reality is perfectly compatible with finite reality, because growth is not a function of resources. An email is more economically valuable than a paper mail despite requiring much less resources (and leading to a much less CO2 emission)
To believe this, you must believe that the economy can become arbitrarily decoupled from any physical good. Do you believe that food can become an arbitrarily small proportion of the economy (and so arbitrarily cheap relative to income)? Steel? Purified silicon? Infrastructure like bridges?
I don't. Perpetual growth is incompatible with finite resources. Fortunately, human flourishing does not depend on infinite economic growth; there is, for example, enough food for everyone on the planet. Capitalism is just bad at allocating resources by any metric other than its own. (Yes yes, it's better that feudalism was. I think we can hold ourselves to a higher bar than that.)
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
That article is vastly superior and is the one that should be being discussed, not this.
> Turn the volume on the typical El Niño impacts up to eleven, then watch the collective infrastructure of modern industrial civilization crumble. Watch as flooding storms wash away roads and cities. Watch as trailing storms create new inland lakes, swamping farmland. Watch as fires raze forests and grasslands. Watch as heatwaves turn temperate regions into unsurvivable hellscapes. Watch as crops fail and dams burst.…
This is intentional repetition. More specifically, anaphora [1]. You may not personally like it, but it is a rhetorical device used to emphasize a point. This one also comes with a nice progression: storms, storms, heat, heat, farmland, groceries.
This substack article also comes with additional graphs, a much better story flow (data is progressively introduced and explained before reaching the final plot), and was posted 2 days before the OP. I agree with GP that it is significantly superior to the OP (which is likely AI slop). Thanks for posting it.
Re: A graph that should be front-page news
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
People in the climate movement are rarely professional PR folks. Weaponizing their personal faults against the objective subject matter they talk about is disingenuous anyway? You cannot deduce factual correctness from how "holy" the messenger is.
I wasn't aware I had weaponised their personal faults, or indeed claimed that what they said was indicative of being a personal fault. I read his post, and then read some more of his writing, and simply felt it would be worth posting what I read in this thread. For me at least, it was a useful experience that changed some of what I was reading into the commentary surrounding the data. YMMV.
Glad you did. It’s just reasonable behavior to me