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The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

mwi.westpoint.edu

271–280 of 701 posts

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#271
post #153

A very insightful, and correct, piece. I'll quote in full the following, which I think gets to the heart of the matter. If you have no push, you can't apply pressure to the point. > The notion that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics is frequently discussed in military academies and war colleges, yet it is rarely reflected in the Army’s budget requests or modernization priorities. The outdated conc…

It is kind of interesting seeing the ukraine war tiptoe from actually striking the tail in earnest. We see some attacks on moscow refineries in recent days, yes, but why not full scale targeting of total industrial collapse of the russian state? Similarly, why doesn't Kyiv look like Gaza? I guess ukraine doesn't want to be slapped equally hard. We see this in the iran war too. Small scale, targeted attacks to some ch…

Dude, read some proper war news ffs. During a recent single night, those russian assholes send on Kyiv around 500 shaheds, 50 kalibr missiles, 50 of something else I dont recall etc totalling around 600 long range missiles/warheads/medium sized long range drones, each capable of significant damage due to big heavy explosive load. If they could they would send more, luckily russians and competence dont meet at the same room often.

If Ukraine's defense didnt shoot down >90% of them depending on the type it would be a total carnage, day after day.

Of couse its largely useless wave of terror, very similar to V1/V2 terror attacks nazi germany did on London, with similar results - increasing resolve. But infrastructure is hammered, during winter it can be brutal, and country cannot go on like that forever.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main point of this paper is that rear area bases are too vulnerable now. This paper is from West Point, and is the view from the Army side. It's a big problem for air forces, too. The US has a tradition of large, supposedly secure bases in the rear. The USAF has relied on this since WWII. It's not working any more. Iran has been hitting US air bases. In the last day, they've hit US bases in Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait…

Maybe the US should focus more on diplomacy and open collaboration rather than letting a few dozen psychopaths convince the country we need to support a war machine that has benefited no one outside of the defense industry.

If the problem was as simple as a few individuals and had no benefits it would not persist -- this is a Hollywood view of the world that won't help you understand your opposition.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US military knows full well the importance of logistics. TFA is somehow arguing for distributed distribution networks that are harder to track and attack. Why not advocate for improved defenses along the supply lines? Or is it down to percentages where just one good hit has large effect?

Ukraine is deploying AI enabled drones that require no fiber optic wires and no electronic tethering. They patrol autonomously and identify targets; a human authorizes the strike and they take out targets by themselves. This is the holy grail of modern warfare; destroy the enemy’s rear staging and logistics. If they don’t have fuel or ammo, they are a defenseless sitting target.

got any more links for info on these?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#274
post #218
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to be stronger than Israel just from scale, and that seems plenty strong enough to level a modern city in a few days or weeks.

Israel can fly aircraft over their adversaries at will. Russia can't.

What a difference having proper 5th generation planes makes

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#275

China has missed their window of opportunity, sadly. For the next big war, the US will simply not even need to air or sea to deliver weapons or supplies (see SpaceX's StarFall, of which 60x4 should fit into Starship). Per my calculations, the JDAM version of this will be cheaper than flying planes (and pilots) to drop bombs or cruise missiles. For small(er) wars, cheap drones break everything as they can destroy your…

I just don't see how the fuel costs of getting things up to space winning out unless production is located up there. especially since rocket launches tend to be extremely static. More dangerously, I think that would inevitably lead to space being the battlefield. Since that area doesn't need any more shrapnel orbiting at 17,500 mph; it seems an idea best left to the drawing board. The cleanup required will make clear…

> I just don't see how the fuel costs of getting things up to space winning out unless production is located up there.

Starship's in theory targeting something like a million bucks in fuel for a launch. For a military that spends more than that on individual missiles, that's peanuts.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having followed SpaceX since the beginning, this is not true at all. People doubted every single step. Industry experts did.

People doubt the timelines, not the claims. The timelines are pure fantasy and have been since the start.

> People doubt the timelines, not the claims.

People doubted the claims, too. Particularly landing and re-use.

Concrete example: https://spaceflightnow.com/2015/04/13/ula-plans-to-introduce...

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#277

China has missed their window of opportunity, sadly. For the next big war, the US will simply not even need to air or sea to deliver weapons or supplies (see SpaceX's StarFall, of which 60x4 should fit into Starship). Per my calculations, the JDAM version of this will be cheaper than flying planes (and pilots) to drop bombs or cruise missiles. For small(er) wars, cheap drones break everything as they can destroy your…

I just don't see how the fuel costs of getting things up to space winning out unless production is located up there. especially since rocket launches tend to be extremely static. More dangerously, I think that would inevitably lead to space being the battlefield. Since that area doesn't need any more shrapnel orbiting at 17,500 mph; it seems an idea best left to the drawing board. The cleanup required will make clear…

The prospect of cleanup duty has never stopped anyone at war. Fields of landmines maiming children for decades, unexploded ordinance in cities, etc etc.

Near earth orbit will be a field of debris until gravity takes over.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US military knows full well the importance of logistics. TFA is somehow arguing for distributed distribution networks that are harder to track and attack. Why not advocate for improved defenses along the supply lines? Or is it down to percentages where just one good hit has large effect?

The main point of this paper is that rear area bases are too vulnerable now. This paper is from West Point, and is the view from the Army side. It's a big problem for air forces, too. The US has a tradition of large, supposedly secure bases in the rear. The USAF has relied on this since WWII. It's not working any more. Iran has been hitting US air bases. In the last day, they've hit US bases in Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait…

> The US has a tradition of large, supposedly secure bases in the rear. The USAF has relied on this since WWII. It's not working any more.

I guess we're all guerrilla fighters now.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

huh? how does one keep a human in the loop for decision making it there is not an 'electronic tether'?

A human is not piloting the drone. It patrols even if it lost communication due to jamming. It does need communication to ask the human for authorization to strike.

> It does need communication to ask the human for authorization to strike.

well.. about that. "A senior figure in the Ukrainian defence industry told New Scientist that a test took place two years ago involving fully autonomous drones set to destroy anything in a given area, with confirmed casualties"

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2529849-fully-autonomou...

this article says "one time test" but i, personally, can't believe it's not being used daily.

https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/06/ukraines-one-time-test-us...

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#280

I would not underestimate the power of a fully mobilized USA. If we really need to, we can do a lot of things that would die to bureaucracy in peacetime - see WWII.

"see WWII" ... I agree, however it is very unfortunate that we have off-shored so much of our industrial capacity.
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