Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

mwi.westpoint.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 701 posts

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#41

Post by pjc50 »

strictnein wrote: post #14
wartywhoa23 wrote: post #4

Many complain on negativism in HN comments, but how in the world can a sane person express anything positive when there's a hell-bent will in conjunction with the "next war"?

Are you under the impression that humanity could reach a state where there is never another major war? I don't know how one would reach that conclusion, least of all a Major at the nation's leading military educational institute. Nothing "hell-bent" about it.

People were starting to think that way at the "end of history" period between the Cold War and 9/11. At that time the major powers were not involved in wars, and it was believed that regional ones could be "solved" like Yugoslavia.

9/11 was a huge success for Bin Laden's goal of restarting a forever war, though.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#42

Post by realusername »

haunter wrote: post #24

> If history provides the theory, the ongoing war in Ukraine offers a brutal contemporary lesson: Modern armies collapse when they run out of logistics, not when they run out of weapons. Is this really a new lesson? I thought that was common knowlegede since WW2 especially with the events of the Eastern Front.

"Amateurs discuss tactics, professionals discuss logistics"

Napoleon

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#44

Post by strulovich »

malfist wrote: post #11
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #6

When Russia invaded Ukraine, nobody (even the Ukranians) imagined that 5 years later they would have their own missiles hammering Russia 2500kms in the rear. Americans need to start accepting that a) the Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years and b) Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

This is not a very charitable explanation, it takes politicians at their word during a war. (One should not do that, and you can refer to Putin’s language at 2022 as a parallel example to Trump’s)

The initial US goals clearly were: 1. Regime change 2. Denial is of nuclear weapons

It’s also clear these goals were not achieved. So the US changed tactics and goals. (Same as Russia no longer plans on capturing Kiev it seems)

Most likely the US is stalling for time due to oil markets and has the same intentions as before, limited only by current capability.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#45

Post by wartywhoa23 »

abtinf wrote: post #38
wartywhoa23 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that war is the worst thing that humans can engage in, and that the prevailing sentiment is that constant war is an immutable status-quo, and hence it's okay, there's nothing we can do except downvoting those fucking negativists.

War is not nearly the worst thing. Not even in the top 10.

Oh, really? I'd like to see your top 10.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#46

Post by pjc50 »

xp84 wrote: post #33
mcphage wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran will probably in a better place than they are now, strategically speaking How could that be? Are they getting an influx of $300 billion dollars or something?

It’s an odd declaration and maybe based on Rus/Ukraine. But Ukraine is doing better now than in the first week of the “Special Military Operation” due to having a lot of rich allies who have (in fits and starts) given them a lot of money and gear, and due to a Russia which has stretched its military and economy to the breaking point. By contrast, Iran’s only allies are its terrorist affiliates in Lebanon, Gaza, and t…

I believe the assessment is based on the desire of the US to offer concessions (such as sanctions withdrawal) in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Which will be painful in the medium term, but less so in the long run as oil is diverted around it.

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#47

Post by phkahler »

kayo_20211030 wrote: post #2

A very insightful, and correct, piece. I'll quote in full the following, which I think gets to the heart of the matter. If you have no push, you can't apply pressure to the point. > The notion that amateurs talk tactics and professionals talk logistics is frequently discussed in military academies and war colleges, yet it is rarely reflected in the Army’s budget requests or modernization priorities. The outdated conc…

The US military knows full well the importance of logistics. TFA is somehow arguing for distributed distribution networks that are harder to track and attack. Why not advocate for improved defenses along the supply lines? Or is it down to percentages where just one good hit has large effect?

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#49

Post by xp84 »

causality0 wrote: post #5

Change is not going to happen until it's forced. The US military was born as a force required to rebuff existential threats. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the gravitational center of the US military has been the profit margins of defense contractors. What creates the greatest profit? Centralization. Why have a dozen logistics centers when you can have one big one? A trillion dollar fighter program more efficien…

Why are defense contractors not better investments, then?

https://youtu.be/C2gIId1dpDs

Re: The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war

#50

Post by __s »

jandrese wrote: post #31
malfist wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Iran war will also probably still be going on in 5 years The Russia/Ukraine war has a goal, to make Ukraine either part of Russia or a client state. What's the goal of the US/Iran war? So far it seems like the goal is to mostly return to the status quo prior to the war. I can't imagine that could continue 5 years because there's just not an objective. Of course, I could easily be mistaken.

The Trump administration forgot all of the lessons of Vietnam.

If it weren't for those bone spurs maybe that war wouldn't be so forgotten
Post reply on HN