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The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

ft.com

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Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#21

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

adastra22 wrote: post #17
ben_w wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huge negative margins, according to the article: "Starting with the reusable rockets, MS expects SpaceX to eat itself. Launch costs will collapse by more than 99 per cent versus their historical average within 10 years, it says. Operating margin on launches will have jumped to about 40 per cent, from around negative 50 per cent currently, but 40 per cent of less than 1 per cent still isn’t very much." Though as someo…

This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure.…

China and other competitors have other ideas, even if you're not aware of them.

When your whole pitch is that you're commoditising a technology, don't be surprised when you get a commoditised market.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#22

Post by Earw0rm »

laughing_man wrote: post #11
Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. It seems like it should be worth more than $8/shr if the potential is accounted properly.

I'm thinking of flying over on the Spruce Goose to watch the first operational launch.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#23

Post by XorNot »

Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

There just isn't that much demand for space.

Space is cool to nerds like me, but what do I really need from it? I've got all the navigation satellites I could want (which I don't pay for) and the best satellite imagery I use is still hyperspectral airborne imagery.

Now, of course that's not the full story but the use cases get rather specific beyond that: the launch market just isn't actually very big (afaik $30 billion a year).

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#24

Post by adgjlsfhk1 »

adastra22 wrote: post #17
ben_w wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huge negative margins, according to the article: "Starting with the reusable rockets, MS expects SpaceX to eat itself. Launch costs will collapse by more than 99 per cent versus their historical average within 10 years, it says. Operating margin on launches will have jumped to about 40 per cent, from around negative 50 per cent currently, but 40 per cent of less than 1 per cent still isn’t very much." Though as someo…

This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure.…

> SpaceX started moving into their own constellations because lower prices open up new markets, and this lets them access those markets without having to lower launch prices

the alternate take here is that even at current prices, falcon 9 is more than capable of completely filling space demand which makes building a >10x bigger vehicle seem kind of dumb

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#26

Post by jve »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #12
laughing_man wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. It seems like it should be worth more than $8/shr if the potential is accounted properly.

> Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. Any day now. Yep, real soon, honest!

Don't repeat mistakes of people that were making fun of SpaceX landing rockets before they started to land.

Starship has so much innovation in there, the raptors itself etc.

It launches, it flies, it re-enters and it lands. The engines work. The heat protection work. Even when they push it to the limits by intentionally experimenting with different heat protection, omitting tiles etc. Even when they are in R&D stage.

I believe they can make it work with little refurbishment between flights. Even if all didn't work like they planned, they still have a very, very good vehicle.

I mean something must go off the rails very very badly for the Starship NOT to enter the service.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#27

Post by Arnt »

laughing_man wrote: post #11
Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. It seems like it should be worth more than $8/shr if the potential is accounted properly.

Why is it going to be huge? Who are the customers and what do they want?

I don't follow this closely, just look at the pretty pictures. If there's demand for lifting much bigger/heavier things to orbit than presently possible, I would probably not know, for lack of pretty pictures. So please tell.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#28

Post by discreteevent »

Panhandler

> I sat out the TMT bubble until they quit using the term "information superhighway," and it saved me an 80% drawdown.

> I'm sitting out the AI / chip / SpaceX [AICSX, pronounced like the wrestling shoes?] bubble until they stop using the word "compute" as if it were a noun.

> I'm guessing I'll save myself a drawdown on a similar scale.

A comment under the original article.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#29

Post by zpeti »

XorNot wrote: post #23
Havoc wrote: post #2

That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity

There just isn't that much demand for space. Space is cool to nerds like me, but what do I really need from it? I've got all the navigation satellites I could want (which I don't pay for) and the best satellite imagery I use is still hyperspectral airborne imagery. Now, of course that's not the full story but the use cases get rather specific beyond that: the launch market just isn't actually very big (afaik $30 bill…

Without doing a google search - optical fibers factories and pharma factories can deliver higher quality products when built in space. And I bet there are hundreds of other examples.

Just because launch costs were high and these weren't viable before, doesn't mean they won't be viable now.

Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley

#30

Post by f4c39012 »

incognito124 wrote: post #18
ben_w wrote: post #7

My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their earthbound equivalents by 2031, and put 364GW of rigs in space by 2040." With 25% efficient cells, at 500 km altitude, in a terminator-tracing SSO, this is enough to occupy a *contiguous*…

I'm also writing a blogpost on orbital datacentres, maybe we should compare notes!

Dotnetrocks did an excellent breakdown https://www.dotnetrocks.com/details/2007
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