That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity
Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. It seems like it should be worth more than $8/shr if the potential is accounted properly.
The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
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Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#12That feels…low. They’re the only one with significant proven and operational space lift capacity
Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational. It seems like it should be worth more than $8/shr if the potential is accounted properly.
> Starship is going to be huge when it's finally operational.
Any day now. Yep, real soon, honest!
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#13My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their earthbound equivalents by 2031, and put 364GW of rigs in space by 2040." With 25% efficient cells, at 500 km altitude, in a terminator-tracing SSO, this is enough to occupy a *contiguous*…
He3 is needed as a cryogenic for quantum systems, not fusion fuel.
As I understand it, He3 is also used in nuclear materials detectors.
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#14My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their earthbound equivalents by 2031, and put 364GW of rigs in space by 2040." With 25% efficient cells, at 500 km altitude, in a terminator-tracing SSO, this is enough to occupy a *contiguous*…
He3 is needed as a cryogenic for quantum systems, not fusion fuel.
Morgan Stanley list both.
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
Space lift is not very profitable. The money comes from whatever you actually put in orbit with that lift capacity.
SpaceX’s launch services have huge margins.
Huge negative margins, according to the article:
"Starting with the reusable rockets, MS expects SpaceX to eat itself. Launch costs will collapse by more than 99 per cent versus their historical average within 10 years, it says. Operating margin on launches will have jumped to about 40 per cent, from around negative 50 per cent currently, but 40 per cent of less than 1 per cent still isn’t very much."
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#16> In our model, we estimate SpaceX raising an average of $72bn annually between 2027 and 2030 and then an average of $95bn annually between 2031 and 2034
Ah. There it is. Even if that's all done as investment-grade debt (with a 50 bp underwriting spread), that's $3+ billion of banking fees.
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
SpaceX’s launch services have huge margins.
Huge negative margins, according to the article: "Starting with the reusable rockets, MS expects SpaceX to eat itself. Launch costs will collapse by more than 99 per cent versus their historical average within 10 years, it says. Operating margin on launches will have jumped to about 40 per cent, from around negative 50 per cent currently, but 40 per cent of less than 1 per cent still isn’t very much." Though as someo…
This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace.
There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure. SpaceX started moving into their own constellations because lower prices open up new markets, and this lets them access those markets without having to lower launch prices.
And if you think, as Morgan Stanley seems to, that the only money to be made in space is selling launch of earth orbiting satellites, you’re going to miss out on the boom that is going to make the first quadrillionaire.
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#18My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their earthbound equivalents by 2031, and put 364GW of rigs in space by 2040." With 25% efficient cells, at 500 km altitude, in a terminator-tracing SSO, this is enough to occupy a *contiguous*…
I'm also writing a blogpost on orbital datacentres, maybe we should compare notes!
Re: The space bit of SpaceX is worth $8 a share, says Morgan Stanley
#19Earlier quoted context omitted.
Huge negative margins, according to the article: "Starting with the reusable rockets, MS expects SpaceX to eat itself. Launch costs will collapse by more than 99 per cent versus their historical average within 10 years, it says. Operating margin on launches will have jumped to about 40 per cent, from around negative 50 per cent currently, but 40 per cent of less than 1 per cent still isn’t very much." Though as someo…
This is my industry I know it well, apparently much better than these bozos. SpaceX launch is only “unprofitable” only in the accounting sense because they reinvest their profits into Starship. Their actual profit margin for launch of F9 is 62% - 80% depending on configuration. That is a margin unheard of in aerospace. There is literally no competition worth speaking of, and nobody to provide downward price pressure.…
> And if you think, as Morgan Stanley seems to, that the only money to be made in space is selling launch of earth orbiting satellites, you’re going to miss out on the boom that is going to make the first quadrillionaire.
I was with you up to this point.
Quadrillionaire? Seriously? On species-wide economy of 0.1Q/year? On a timescale short enough that SpaceX remains a coherent entity and you don't have to account for things like the sum-total risk of nuclear war? Or even just of Musk dying of old age given he's 55?