Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

apollo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 97 posts

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#71

Post by eru »

Legend2440 wrote: post #33
sublinear wrote: post #9

I don't understand why anyone insists that this needs more time. None of what we've seen in the past few years is new tech. It's more money and hardware thrown at the problem than ever before for diminishing returns. The market has clearly spoken. Knowing what you're doing is much more valuable than just the doing. That still requires humans. This AI winter has already begun.

>None of what we've seen in the past few years is new tech. Well that's just wrong. Reasoning models are new and very powerful. LLMs can complete open-ended tasks that require many complex steps. We're just beginning. The bubble will pop and investors will lose a lot of money, but we're not going back into a winter. It actually works this time.

I don't think there's any bubble to pop.

However, yes, market asset prices can go up as well as down. (If they could only go up, there would be free money to be made.)

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#72

Post by fancy_pantser »

profsummergig wrote: post #49
decimalenough wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've switched to non-SOTA models, which deliver comparable value at a fraction of the cost. A full day of coding with Deepseek is approx $1 in tokens, and at least for my use cases the quality is equivalent to Claude.

If you don't mind sharing... what's your preferred vendor for Deepseek

Not who you asked, but if you're looking for a rec, I've been using GLM and Deepseek models through Deepinfra because the prices are decent for US-based deployments and there's acceptable throughput and policy/terms. I'd love to find another that lowers prices over time when they roll out e.g. multi-token prediction instead of just taking a larger margin, but I don't know of any today.

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#73

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

eru wrote: post #62
runako wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether that person is talking their book or not, there absolutely has been an app explosion. Github & the app stores have all reported as much over the last year. I also have repeatedly experienced the phenomenon of nontechnical people having built custom software to run their businesses. A lawyer friend was first, sending me a link to his GitHub(!), where he has built a custom client intake/practice-management appl…

The closest parallel in history I can think of is the proliferation of spreadsheets in the 1980s.

Yeah, this feels like the right comparison. AI, like Excel makes it much easier for people to build useful tools.

And like Excel, software people are gonna end up complaining about the quality and having to maintain these applications.

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#74

Post by conductr »

binarymax wrote: post #25
rybosworld wrote: post #22

One thing I can't square: if the cost to build an application goes to zero, we should see a proliferation of apps, especially from the AI labs. The fact that we aren't seeing an app explosion (I think) is evidence that building applications people will pay for is significantly more complex than just prompting claude/codex/etc

I am absolutely seeing an explosion in apps. The reason you might not see them is because the app explosion is entirely custom and in house. I talked with a friend last week, who has never coded before in his life, who built an absolutely incredible fit-for-purpose app for his own job. He gave me a demo and it blew my mind. It will never go beyond his walls, and he will never buy SaaS that only kinda fits what he nee…

I’m seeing this too. I compare it to spreadsheets in terms of getting broad application building tools to the layperson

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#75

Post by eru »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #73
eru wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The closest parallel in history I can think of is the proliferation of spreadsheets in the 1980s.

Yeah, this feels like the right comparison. AI, like Excel makes it much easier for people to build useful tools. And like Excel, software people are gonna end up complaining about the quality and having to maintain these applications.

Yes. Though with Excel for most business users the choice was between

- lobby the IT department for at least a quarter, then wait at least one quarter, and at the end you get a buggy implementation of your idea that doesn't quite work

- or: spend a weekend hacking together a quick and ugly, buggy spreadsheet prototype of your idea that doesn't quite work.

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#76

Post by Ekaros »

esafak wrote: post #52
nstart wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because, as the gp pointed out, if the cost is least to the labs, then why not reap the benefits too? Hypothetical. Assume you can in fact point agents at a tool and say "replicate it. Make no mistakes". You then have software being instantly copy-able. Assume these agents can then be pointed to a customer feedback board in perpetuity and they autonomously upgrade the software over time. They analyze usage patterns a…

There is more to selling software than writing it. You have market, support, and sell. Do you think their resources are well spent doing that across the gamut of software? Of course not; companies specialize.

Isn't the promise that LLM can do all this better than any human? Or at least in few short months? Surely marketing, support and selling is just case of right prompt?

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#77

Post by Ekaros »

eru wrote: post #70
pdimitar wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes: historically this is not what I have observed businesses doing. They'd fight tooth and nail to reduce expenses for the fatter profits; cost savings are seldom if ever passed to consumers.

Obviously they don't voluntarily pass on cost savings to customers. That's why competition is there for. Btw, check how much RAM costs today per byte than eg 20 years ago. Even including today's AI driven price increases. Or check how much it costs to keep your house light up nice and bright compared to 50 years ago.

How much does a car cost now? Surely with automation, robots and general efficiency gains every where in the production chain they should be lot cheaper than they used to be.

The companies seem to rarely keep the cheaper models around too for something. Surely they could sell them for right price.

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#78

Post by DrewADesign »

eru wrote: post #68
DrewADesign wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even aside from inflation, the prospect of efficiency-borne gains meaningfully benefiting the consumer rather than fattening corporate profit margins, frankly, seems like magical thinking. I’ve seen no evidence that our current corporate culture is capable of it (for any longer than it takes to dominate some market.)

What does corporate culture have to do with any of it? The surplus goes to the consumer not because of any benevolent corporate culture, but because of competition. And (most) efficiency gains have benefited customers in the past. Just check eg how much you are paying for excellent lighting of your house today vs 200 years ago.

Yeah that’s why health care and credit are so cheap!

How about literally anything run by private equity?

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#79

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

eru wrote: post #75
disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this feels like the right comparison. AI, like Excel makes it much easier for people to build useful tools. And like Excel, software people are gonna end up complaining about the quality and having to maintain these applications.

Yes. Though with Excel for most business users the choice was between - lobby the IT department for at least a quarter, then wait at least one quarter, and at the end you get a buggy implementation of your idea that doesn't quite work - or: spend a weekend hacking together a quick and ugly, buggy spreadsheet prototype of your idea that doesn't quite work.

> - or: spend a weekend hacking together a quick and ugly, buggy spreadsheet prototype of your idea that doesn't quite work.

I mean, based on my own experience with AI tools, this feels like the standard output.

Re: AI: The ROI Runway Could Be Long Outside the Tech Sector

#80

Post by onel »

rybosworld wrote: post #22

One thing I can't square: if the cost to build an application goes to zero, we should see a proliferation of apps, especially from the AI labs. The fact that we aren't seeing an app explosion (I think) is evidence that building applications people will pay for is significantly more complex than just prompting claude/codex/etc

I think there is an explosion of new apps, the problem is still distribution in marketing. If I develop a new vibe coded app, it will still take some time for it to be known. And also get good.

Also, what another commenter said that most of new apps are in-house, fully agree with that.

Post reply on HN