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One thing I can't square: if the cost to build an application goes to zero, we should see a proliferation of apps, especially from the AI labs. The fact that we aren't seeing an app explosion (I think) is evidence that building applications people will pay for is significantly more complex than just prompting claude/codex/etc
And I don't think this is unusual. It took decades for previous technologies to be fully integrated into existing businesses. In the 80s you could see the IT revolution everywhere... except the productivity statistics, which didn't catch up until the 90s.
LLMs are still very new and have significant limitations (like prompt injection and high token costs) that are very likely solveable but will take time.
I don't understand why anyone insists that this needs more time. None of what we've seen in the past few years is new tech. It's more money and hardware thrown at the problem than ever before for diminishing returns. The market has clearly spoken. Knowing what you're doing is much more valuable than just the doing. That still requires humans. This AI winter has already begun.
Well that's just wrong. Reasoning models are new and very powerful. LLMs can complete open-ended tasks that require many complex steps.
We're just beginning. The bubble will pop and investors will lose a lot of money, but we're not going back into a winter. It actually works this time.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am absolutely seeing an explosion in apps. The reason you might not see them is because the app explosion is entirely custom and in house. I talked with a friend last week, who has never coded before in his life, who built an absolutely incredible fit-for-purpose app for his own job. He gave me a demo and it blew my mind. It will never go beyond his walls, and he will never buy SaaS that only kinda fits what he nee…
From their profile, this person makes a living selling AI programming products, by the way. Who could have guessed. There's a pattern to be noticed, even.
I also have repeatedly experienced the phenomenon of nontechnical people having built custom software to run their businesses. A lawyer friend was first, sending me a link to his GitHub(!), where he has built a custom client intake/practice-management application to work as the firm works. He's not the only non-technical lawyer I know who has shared vibe coded apps with me.
I personally build many, many single-use apps than I ever would have before. Gnarly debugging sessions can be greatly simplified by inserting a custom piece of disposable tooling/etc. I am not a Mac programmer, but I now have custom Mac apps to solve problems that only I want solved. Do these count?
Honestly, I would be a little surprised if anyone posting on HN did not have some personal exposure to the explosion of apps.
One thing I can't square: if the cost to build an application goes to zero, we should see a proliferation of apps, especially from the AI labs. The fact that we aren't seeing an app explosion (I think) is evidence that building applications people will pay for is significantly more complex than just prompting claude/codex/etc
On a commercial support forum I moderate we had to ban software announcements there were so many.
> If token costs converge toward zero for most AI use cases... In the real world, token costs seem to be going up, as early stage pricing at a loss gives way to pricing that generates revenue. Compute costs might go down a little over the next five years, but there's nothing coming along in hardware that leads to huge reductions in price. NVidia says don't expect better price/performance before 2030. The models keep…
> If token costs converge toward zero for most AI use cases... In the real world, token costs seem to be going up, as early stage pricing at a loss gives way to pricing that generates revenue. Compute costs might go down a little over the next five years, but there's nothing coming along in hardware that leads to huge reductions in price. NVidia says don't expect better price/performance before 2030. The models keep…
You are right - tokens are going up currently.
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Hypothetical: Pepsi starts using AI in some magical way that allows them to increase their margins. This allows them to reduce prices while increasing profits. Price-sensitive customers switch from Coca Cola products to Pepsi products. Coca Cola loses some market share, reducing economies of scale, and reducing margins, thus reducing profits. As the cycle repeats, Pepsi moves to dominate the market, and Coca Cola is…
Realistic and historically accurate: Pepsi starts collecting the extra profits with zero price reductions.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well those efficiency gains have to show up somewhere. It would imply that consumers / customers of these companies are receiving cheaper or higher value services / goods. Thats at odds with current inflation trends to say the least.
Even aside from inflation, the prospect of efficiency-borne gains meaningfully benefiting the consumer rather than fattening corporate profit margins, frankly, seems like magical thinking. I’ve seen no evidence that our current corporate culture is capable of it (for any longer than it takes to dominate some market.)