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GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

martinalderson.com

191–200 of 495 posts

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#191
post #5

I'm not convinced raw costs matter: 1. Compute costs collapsed since the advent of Cloud and yet hyperscalers still have fat margins. 2. Many open source office suites exist yet none compete with the ubiquity of gsuite or office. GitHub, Slack are similar examples. 3. Both Windows and macOS dominate the home desktop space despite free alternatives existing for a long time. 4. Many formerly open source infrastructure…

there's huge margins on GPU time, not tokens.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#192

I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…

I have the same experience. I literally cannot fathom how people burn the number of tokens they claim to.

because they don't know what they're doing.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed they are all lossy. Not sure how much they contribute to the quality loss in long context though. I got a 700k session with DSV4 Pro (official API), and the model was still coherent and didn't make any tool call error.

That’s a low bar though, and the least I would expect.

Well I wouldn't call it a low bar, since some of the edits were quite complex. And 1M context in less than 6GB of VRAM is truly impressive, but somehow this gets way less attention than the crappy turbo quant from Google.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#194

I'll agree but from the other direction. AI continues to absorb my job as a senior systems software engineer (c/c++) and after a couple months I've only spent a few hundred dollars using gpt-5.5/5.6 and codex. I have no idea what people are doing to burn so many tokens but for me this is laughably cheap and every day I discover new capabilities. I don't care if costs go up or down, it's so cheap for what I get that I…

I have the same experience. I literally cannot fathom how people burn the number of tokens they claim to.

Very large context windows (usually when you're working on a very large existing project) will chew through tokens quickly. So will RAG.

If you're working on isolated components within a system or small projects, you'll have a very different experience.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#195
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unlike all your examples, switching out an LLM is both cheap an easy. So easy that every 3 months or so new models are released and people grab them and start using them. The UX is the same regardless the provider. You send in a prompt, it spits back an answer. In all your other cases, the cost to switch is losing support and a difficult transition period. But in the case of LLMs, there was no support to begin with.…

If you're developing on top of LLM APIs directly, this is definitely not true. There are differences in how context caching works, in what's available through native harnesses, the types of tools you're fine-tuned on (GPT uses apply_patch while Claude uses edit, with different formats), the API surface (Agents SDK, Responses API, Managed Agents), cost structures, and best-practice guidance all around. Not to mention…

This is a meme and massively over-complicating what is ultimately quite simple.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, as in, really, will they? Where and at what price, especially across an actual enterprise that needs to deploy them to lots of devs? There's much more than just the actual model. Of course my numbers are a sample of one and I am not spending a lot of money or time on it. Just lazily trying things on my "happen to have this" hardware. But basically trying out the Claude Code I'm used to from work but locally…

4.7 Flash is a small model that's almost a year old, which is ancient. And yes, your dinky GPU will not run anything worthwhile. Just spend $5 on OpenCode Go and give GLM 5.2 a shot if you have the time. It's not quite as good as Opus, but it's more than good enough for many tasks.

> Just spend $5 on OpenCode Go

$5 the first month, then price is doubled.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#197
post #35

> the least understood upcoming shift in AI economics. Then proceeds to talk about something in the AI news every day. Hey, did you guys hear? Open source models are cheaper and their quality is increasing! So, first, by no measure is GLM5.2 as good as Opus. Second, yes, open source models will put pressure on margins...eventually. Everyone knows that. But do you think today's AI business model is the same as tomorro…

GLM-5.2 is not as good as Opus, it's better. I can abliterate GLM-5.2 and have it work on projects that Opus refuses.

The cost of running abliterated GLM-5.2 on western inference providers gets close to that of anthropic Opus and is still dumber on everything except the naughty queries you're trying to do. I love uncensored AI too but we need to be realistic here.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#198
post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4.7 Flash is a small model that's almost a year old, which is ancient. And yes, your dinky GPU will not run anything worthwhile. Just spend $5 on OpenCode Go and give GLM 5.2 a shot if you have the time. It's not quite as good as Opus, but it's more than good enough for many tasks.

> Just spend $5 on OpenCode Go $5 the first month , then price is doubled.

The $5 is so they can see if open weights models are worth using, not so they can use it for a month. (Which you can't; The quota runs out way sooner than a month for any serious usage. Still worth the price of entry.)

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#199
Last month, I cancelled my Claude Pro subscription and instead used those 20$ to purchase Openrouter Credits. Most of my knowledge-seeking questions can be answered by Gemma4, for basic code editing, Qwen3.6 27b is enough, and for really difficult tasks, GLM5.2 doesn't leave me hanging. I'm by no means a heavy AI user, so I'm even saving money going the API Credit route and relying on the smallest possible model depending on the task complexity.

Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse

#200
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of those things you mentioned have sticking power because they’re familiar to folks and migrating to something else is a big deal. I can’t imagine most people would be able to tell the difference between Sonnet and GLM 5.2. If the infrastructure around the model you’re using doesn’t change, then swapping models is extremely easy.

I'm using pi-coder with just the free-tier models I can get on openrouter / opencode / kilocode. When I run out of quota on one model I often switch to another model in the same session , and it generally works just fine.

When I use it for fiction, I generally switch models 2-3 times per response. It's basically normal
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