GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
martinalderson.com
GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
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Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#2I hope cheaper inference eventually means faster speeds at the lower tiers. I don't want to settle for 100 t/s, but I don't want to pay $10 per prompt either
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#3They have a vision MCP to make up for the model itself not having the capability natively: https://docs.z.ai/devpack/mcp/vision-mcp-server
I also found their web search to be mostly okay.
Furthermore, in case this is of interest to anyone, if you use their ZCode harness then you get bigger Coding Plan quotas: https://zcode.z.ai/en
Used it for a bit, it sits somewhere between OpenCode Desktop (still new but nice) and Claude Desktop (recent versions are good).
As for GLM 5.2 as a model - with max thinking it’s generally satisfactory, somewhere between Sonnet 5 and Opus 4.8, better than DeepSeek V4 Pro for sure.
Pricing wise, the subscription doesn’t seem as good as expected. I spent like 60% of the weekly limits of the Pro (50 USD) plan in one day, only because each 5 hour limit only gave me 20% to spend, otherwise it’d be 80-100%. Not even doing anything crazy, just parallel long form work on 2 projects with about 96% cache rate and at most 3 parallel code review sub-agents.
Their Max (100 USD) subscription would last me the whole week, but so does Anthropic for the same money and so would OpenAI. Off-peak is more palatable but I can’t just twiddle my thumbs at 9 AM to 1 PM local time.
Proper savings would show up with the Max plan and yearly billing, but that’s more of a tough sell.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#4>the least understood upcoming shift in AI economics.
Then proceeds to talk about something in the AI news every day. Hey, did you guys hear? Open source models are cheaper and their quality is increasing!
So, first, by no measure is GLM5.2 as good as Opus.
Second, yes, open source models will put pressure on margins...eventually. Everyone knows that. But do you think today's AI business model is the same as tomorrow's?
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#5I'm not convinced raw costs matter:
1. Compute costs collapsed since the advent of Cloud and yet hyperscalers still have fat margins.
2. Many open source office suites exist yet none compete with the ubiquity of gsuite or office. GitHub, Slack are similar examples.
3. Both Windows and macOS dominate the home desktop space despite free alternatives existing for a long time.
4. Many formerly open source infrastructure components like Redis and Elastic Search have Apache equivalents, but they still command healthy margins.
I understand the arguments for a margin collapse, but I don't see any historical analogues. It seems that enterprises will pay top dollar for service guarantees, integration, and someone they can sue.
It's nobody gets fired for buying IBM all over again.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#6I also think we’ll approach a point where increasing intelligence is not really going to suddenly improve most work tasks. I bet that’s already happened actually.
We’re oohing and aahing about models, when the ones a few versions ago did a good enough job for most of the dumb coding, etc we do
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#7I hope cheaper inference eventually means faster speeds at the lower tiers. I don't want to settle for 100 t/s, but I don't want to pay $10 per prompt either
Which raises the question, which are the fastest frontier models? are the enterprise hosted Anthropic models faster than what Anthropic serves?
Somehow no one talks about LLM speed.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#8I'm not convinced raw costs matter: 1. Compute costs collapsed since the advent of Cloud and yet hyperscalers still have fat margins. 2. Many open source office suites exist yet none compete with the ubiquity of gsuite or office. GitHub, Slack are similar examples. 3. Both Windows and macOS dominate the home desktop space despite free alternatives existing for a long time. 4. Many formerly open source infrastructure…
The target audience is different. Coding is mainly a trade of the tech savvy, who like many on r/localllama users do not hesitate to deply on 16GB Vram gpus. Even if so, it is estimated that within 2 years we will be able to run Claude 4.8 on consumer hardware give the rate of improvement of open-weight LLMs, which will put more financial pressure on "paid" labs. It's just a matter of rate of improvement which is shrinking between open-closed models.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#9Seems like a pretty pointless post that still centers around output tokens.
In agentic coding, cached input tokens is 90% of the API "cost". It doesn't require GPU compute, and DeepSeek has shown that it can be done 50~100x cheaper with MLA/CSA/HCA, and a whole bunch of disks. This should collapse the margin.
Re: GLM 5.2 and the coming AI margin collapse
#10I'm not convinced raw costs matter: 1. Compute costs collapsed since the advent of Cloud and yet hyperscalers still have fat margins. 2. Many open source office suites exist yet none compete with the ubiquity of gsuite or office. GitHub, Slack are similar examples. 3. Both Windows and macOS dominate the home desktop space despite free alternatives existing for a long time. 4. Many formerly open source infrastructure…
A lot of those things you mentioned have sticking power because they’re familiar to folks and migrating to something else is a big deal.
I can’t imagine most people would be able to tell the difference between Sonnet and GLM 5.2. If the infrastructure around the model you’re using doesn’t change, then swapping models is extremely easy.