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GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

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Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#171
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's kinda hilarious. Pretty soon they might just ask people to write code themselves.

I’m in Finance and learned pretty quickly that to point out the implicit future cost raises based on the cost the LLM-providers need to recoup was unpopular at best (STFU better describes the situation). Running full force into a bear trap.

I've seen that mentality and gone to bat to convince a boardroom that it's the wrong approach, when people were star-struck by the possibilities. Luckily I'm in a position as CTO of a (very non-tech, brick and mortar) company that entrusts me to manage their budget for new features, and prevent erosion of our software/logistics over the long term. And I've come down decidedly on the side of not having LLMs fuck with any schema or architecture changes or anything in the codebase that would touch upon business logic. When your code actually encapsulates business logic, which is often counterintuitive and full of weird exceptions, 90% of the code work is done by prior planning to map out all possible branches and the algorithms to assist employee decision making. The 10% that's actually writing code needs to be done by someone who understands the entire stack and business model perfectly. Some nice HTML/CSS fluff here and there is great to hand off to an LLM, and you don't need frontier models for that.

I shot down similar arguments in favor of outsourcing overseas for years. Outsourcing any critical logic to an LLM is even worse.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're in a price war with the People's Republic of China running flat out with the full backing of a government that literally does not care if they ever see a financial return on the investment, they just want to drive the value of LLM training and inference to zero because we banked the market on it being arbitrarily high margin forever. China was like hold my beer. They have a staggering surplus of grid capacity…

The US can just ban Chinese weights being used in US companies.

If the Trump administration decides to annoint Altman and Amodei in defiance of market forces it will rapidly discover that it no longer has the sovereign bond auction pricing power to prop them up. This isn't 1998: the Treasury has taken five major body blows in the last 25 years, the world's energy markets, maritime insurance regimes, electronic payments rails, and moral authority in places like the UN Security Council are effectively bifurcated. Oil and money and data and people just flow around the United States now. Canada's sovereign debt yields tank harder when the market is spooked, that's the North American flight to quality.

The administration could probably put some serious friction on open weight model use in the Fortune 500 for a little while, but the opposition never got such a gift right before a squeaker midterm. And outside of major enterprises with puckered ass compliance departments? Not a chance. It's popular around here to forget Uber and AirBnB and yes, OpenAI and Anthropic all got their start flagrantly breaking the law and grew lawyers and lobbyists faster than anyone could enforce it. And this time everyone from the DNC to the EFF would be holding hands wearing "Save The Models" t-shirts. Not even NVIDIA is remotely pretending they're anything but all in on GLM 5.2, they had an NVFP4 quant up by the time most people read the blog post.

And the Trump Administration isn't exactly enamored of Comrade Amodei at the moment, being as they're appealing the lawsuit Anthropic brought against the Pentagon during a shooting war.

Forcing the American proprietary AI megalab financing event was our fiscal Ukraine Special Military Operation, the market is calling the bluff and neither the capital markets nor the Federal Reserve has the dry powder to absorb this one.

The Treasury auctions will flat not clear in an orderly way. We can't raise 2-4 trillion dollars on a dime in 2026 and if CoreWeave turns out, as many suspect, to be Patient Zero? It would be that big a hole.

We play by the same rules as everyone else now. I hope we regard it as being worth it, but I fear we will not.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#173
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course I understand all this, but why the cuteness? Why not just say " 2 agent? > Something like GLM-4-32B-0414-128K (not made up [2]) doesn't quite roll off the tongue I suppose. Surely it would sell better though if they could communicate what they're selling? > Coding agent" similar to Claude Code [1], something with a more descriptive name. Does this really need branding at all? Surely claude should sell itsel…

It's a post on twitter, not a press release.

Branding is far more subsistent and meaningful than either lol. They just want to paint themselves as gods. But they are producing software, not magical beings, and we should see them as salesmen, not gods. Not to mention they'd probably sell more software if people could understand their product lineup

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#175

I'm working in large US corporation. And I see that I already have access to 5.6-Sol Ultra on my corporate account. I haven't really used it yet. 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens. Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.

The craziest to me was someone saying “we are using AI in daily processes, now we need to automate”.

But of course to some asshole non-technical people it meant asking for their vibe coded bullshit to be merged into production without review and fighting about it.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#176
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It‘s a collective psychosis. There is not other explanation.

Everyone is falling over themselves out of FOMO.

It’s 100% FOMO from investors, board members and C-levels disconnected from the daily work.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#177

Hope this forces Anthropic to be less stingy with Fable.

It is not because they want to but because they literally don't have the capacity to.

I thought that was solved after the SpaceX deal? Claude is rarely down since that and they have a 1.5x usage promo until 13th July.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#178
post #175

I'm working in large US corporation. And I see that I already have access to 5.6-Sol Ultra on my corporate account. I haven't really used it yet. 2 months ago management was showing us scoreboards, praising leaders who used most tokens. Last few weeks, we're getting weekly emails, telling us that whenever we can - we should use cheaper models, and that we should watch the page which shows our tokens usage.

The craziest to me was someone saying “we are using AI in daily processes, now we need to automate”. But of course to some asshole non-technical people it meant asking for their vibe coded bullshit to be merged into production without review and fighting about it.

The craziest for me is companies that sticking stochastic agents into automated business processes and expecting stable/reliable outcomes. Businesses want deterministic processes in the vast majority of cases.

Re: GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra will be in Codex

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But if you assume he's just a villain You don't have to assume anything. A true "good guy" doesn't openly say that he's fine with autonomous, AI-powered weapons being used against me, and mass surveillance applied to me and my family just because I don't live in the US. A true "good guy" doesn't say "privacy is a human right", and then immediately (and completely) bend the knee to an authoritarian government on thi…

OpenAI's agreement with the Pentagon was "No use of OpenAI technology to direct autonomous weapons systems". And about the mass surveillance, I don't see why the military should not use AI to do surveillance abroad.

Maybe because it will make people abroad like you less and that has flow-on effects, mostly economic.
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