Earlier quoted context omitted.
And yet this doesn't turn out to be Meta's problem at all. https://uk.pcmag.com/ai/165970/meta-exploring-option-to-sell... Meta bought too many GPUs, has spare GPU capacity and they are exploring renting that capacity out. The problem is not that the models need too much to do the job. If that were the case, Meta would not have spare capacity. The problem is that the models currently can't be made to do the job.
I think Meta’s massive compute investment was never about its 100,000 engineers running coding models, but its 3,500,000,000 users wanting to use AI in every single product (and some new ones: Meta AI, glasses, etc.) So I would think that’s the part that’s not being utilized anywhere near the amount they hoped...
Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
101–110 of 661 posts
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#102Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#103Maybe Wang has correctly identified that the programming and agentic ability that Anthropic and OpenAI models have has largely come from armies of software engineers creating massive datasets by writing out coding and agentic problems and solutions?
So he told Zuckerberg that. The reason it may be turning into so much friction is that at companies like Anthropic or OpenAI, training engineers were either hired specifically for that purpose or probably mostly handled through contracts with third parties (which again, hired them to train AI). And honestly many of them may be overseas or just happy to have a job in a difficult period. But anyway they wouldn't have very high salary expectations etc.
But Zuckerberg already had 25000 engineers. Why not take say 1/5 of them and get them working on the the dataset? The problem is that those engineers were hired for different prestigious highly paid positions at Meta/Facebook. They were not hired to do tedious grading of AI answers or quiz construction.
But Zuckerberg either has to do this, or spend additional billions on doing it all with external contractors. A third option would be to try to create a massive distillation operation. Or just hope that his engineers could invent some magical new training trick that manifested the agentic and programming skills without the large scale human input.
Or he could release a model trained largely by existing open weights models. Which without some huge breakthrough probably has no chance of surpassing them, so is pointless.
I think most of the substantive criticism of Zuckerberg has been about burning funds. If he gives up the "your job is to grade AI homework now" plan because his engineers refuse, he would need to go through third parties. The additional billions and billions this would cost would create more pressure on the bottom line and shareholder pressure.
It would also give up any potential advantage that Wang may have optimistically sold the operation as, on that using "real" engineers as opposed to lower paid data labelling engineers might result in a higher quality dataset.
At some point, model architectures that don't need such massive datasets or can be created automatically in a way that advances the frontier will probably come about. But right now it doesn't exist.
Further, the way AI works currently, business advantage from AI comes from encoding existing internal intelligence and knowledge. Meta's massive engineering corp effectively has that in their heads. Having them create these datasets is possibly the only way to leverage this knowledge asset in this paradigm.
I guess the problem is it means forcing thousands of people to do a different job from the one they were hired for.
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
And yet this doesn't turn out to be Meta's problem at all. https://uk.pcmag.com/ai/165970/meta-exploring-option-to-sell... Meta bought too many GPUs, has spare GPU capacity and they are exploring renting that capacity out. The problem is not that the models need too much to do the job. If that were the case, Meta would not have spare capacity. The problem is that the models currently can't be made to do the job.
I think Meta’s massive compute investment was never about its 100,000 engineers running coding models, but its 3,500,000,000 users wanting to use AI in every single product (and some new ones: Meta AI, glasses, etc.) So I would think that’s the part that’s not being utilized anywhere near the amount they hoped...
The whole hype cycle has been pure delusion. Just like the Metaverse hype cycle before it.
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#105I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.
I was involved in three efforts to commercialize foundation models before they were ready in the 2010s so I have a good picture of how progress works at this sort of thing and the pace a lot of the industry has been talking about is unrealistic: like people were disappointed with the rate of development of Apple Intelligence but it's actually progressed at about the rate I expected.
Feels less like the pace of foundation model development and more so a specific failure of one organization to do something important.
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#106I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#107I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is that a problem for Meta though? They recently announced they're going to sell their excess compute, so I imagine the actual problem is they're resorting to doing that because AI isn't having nearly the effect/usage it was supposed to and now Zuck is being a sore winner about it
I agree, i don't think it is the core problem. Meta doesn't seem to be able to produce anything close to a frontier model. The selling of compute capacity seems to be acceptance of "compute is wasted on this crappy avocado model, we'd be better off allowing something better to run". The problem is clearly in the model architecture, the training and the data fed into the model which is causing them to give up on using…
Can't help but think that Meta's digital networking expertise is built atop a human-networking clusterf*ck
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#109The gap between "useful chatbot" and "useful agent" is way bigger than people realize. A chatbot can be wrong 10% of the time and still help you. An agent that's wrong 10% of the time is sending bad emails and making wrong API calls with no one checking.
Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree, i don't think it is the core problem. Meta doesn't seem to be able to produce anything close to a frontier model. The selling of compute capacity seems to be acceptance of "compute is wasted on this crappy avocado model, we'd be better off allowing something better to run". The problem is clearly in the model architecture, the training and the data fed into the model which is causing them to give up on using…
If their training base is dominated by Facebook and Instagram posts then it makes sense that their model is full of shit.