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Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

reuters.com

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Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#91

Post by jrockway »

dofm wrote: post #84
amelius wrote: post #79

"I was hoping AI had progressed enough so I could fire you. But you failed to make it so. Therefore, you're fired!"

Or: you wasted too much money on failing to replace yourselves so now I have to lay you off. Which is one of the two possible grand outcomes of the AI bubble, which both result in laying people off, because that is all these companies know how to do as a response to stress.

I am not sure that it has to be so zero sum. The AI truth is probably somewhere in the middle; it probably doesn't replace software engineers and it probably won't be deleted as completely useless. My current feeling is that it's a powerful tool I'm happy to pay to use; it doesn't replace me, but it makes it easier to do higher quality work. It feels a lot like IntelliSense, or faster compilers, or getting a 32" monitor. That probably doesn't sustain the bubble, but it's something that people are going to be poking at and making money off of for a long time.

I agree that people are investing as though the world is going to run itself while the ultra-wealthy run off in yachts to compare sizes. If it wasn't AI, it would just be tulips or something. That's just how people are. But maybe they'll be right, who knows.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#92

Post by PaulHoule »

_fat_santa wrote: post #76

I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.

I was involved in three efforts to commercialize foundation models before they were ready in the 2010s so I have a good picture of how progress works at this sort of thing and the pace a lot of the industry has been talking about is unrealistic: like people were disappointed with the rate of development of Apple Intelligence but it's actually progressed at about the rate I expected.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#93

Post by teeray »

_fat_santa wrote: post #76

I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.

They also believed they would be able to build that compute without restrictions. Between hardware costs and massive public opposition, scaling as they had anticipated is in jeopardy.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#94

Post by andybak »

holoduke wrote: post #88

Mark is really a bad leader with a mwah mwah vision. He is maybe correct in some things. But the execution is really really poor. Plus he does not have followers and believers. He only got money that can simulate followers to a certain extent

If it was still possible to get verbatim results from Google then I believe "mwah mwah vision" would have been an authentic Googlewhack pointing at this comment thread.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#95

Post by AnotherGoodName »

jalev wrote: post #86
_fat_santa wrote: post #76

I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.

Is that a problem for Meta though? They recently announced they're going to sell their excess compute, so I imagine the actual problem is they're resorting to doing that because AI isn't having nearly the effect/usage it was supposed to and now Zuck is being a sore winner about it

I agree, i don't think it is the core problem.

Meta doesn't seem to be able to produce anything close to a frontier model. The selling of compute capacity seems to be acceptance of "compute is wasted on this crappy avocado model, we'd be better off allowing something better to run".

The problem is clearly in the model architecture, the training and the data fed into the model which is causing them to give up on using their compute exclusively for their own models. They can't get it right so may as well sell the compute to someone that can.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#96

Post by memoriyato3 »

jalev wrote: post #86
_fat_santa wrote: post #76

I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.

Is that a problem for Meta though? They recently announced they're going to sell their excess compute, so I imagine the actual problem is they're resorting to doing that because AI isn't having nearly the effect/usage it was supposed to and now Zuck is being a sore winner about it

well, Google refused to increase Meta quote of tokens, even Google can't supply so many (paid) tokens as Meta is burning

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#98

Post by maccard »

_fat_santa wrote: post #76

I think what everyone underestimated was the absolute bonkers amount of compute it will take and how that compute must scale in order to keep up with larger and larger models.

Did we? Many of us have been saying that the amount of compute going into the models is unsustainable and that the models aren’t improving enough to justify that for over a year. The emperor has no clothes is true yet again.

Re: Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected

#100

Post by SoftTalker »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #95
jalev wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that a problem for Meta though? They recently announced they're going to sell their excess compute, so I imagine the actual problem is they're resorting to doing that because AI isn't having nearly the effect/usage it was supposed to and now Zuck is being a sore winner about it

I agree, i don't think it is the core problem. Meta doesn't seem to be able to produce anything close to a frontier model. The selling of compute capacity seems to be acceptance of "compute is wasted on this crappy avocado model, we'd be better off allowing something better to run". The problem is clearly in the model architecture, the training and the data fed into the model which is causing them to give up on using…

If their training base is dominated by Facebook and Instagram posts then it makes sense that their model is full of shit.
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