Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#161

Post by natural219 » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 9:41 PM UTC

redler wrote: post #141

temphn wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really think you can evaluate government loans the same way you would as a private investor. So, there are different ways to isolate a core philosophical disagreement but I think this may be one of them. In a different context you will hear people say that "the government is not a household" because the USG can print money. OK, so call that one point of view. Another point of view looks at the largest and mos…

I'm almost certain you're not arguing that "dollars generated per person" is the only valid measure of the success of a government as compared to the success of a large corporation. So how do you factor in all the other measures of success in such an evaluation? Trivially, corporations are amoral entities that have the ability, and sometimes the obligation, to jettison lines of business that lose money or simply don'…

It continues to shock me how many people believe that profit-seeking or optimizing production is "immoral". I have nothing much to say about it, since this position is fundamentally irreconcilable with the core ideas of capitalism, which I use as a framework to view all sorts of different aspects of life that become problematic if we believe that people are somehow duped into spending their money or time at a utility loss to themselves.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#162

Post by ghaff » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 9:50 PM UTC

el_cuadrado wrote: post #122

toddmorey wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally disagree. While not at gasoline car levels, Tesla has certainly passed the 'toy' mark in range. What's the range on a 5 series tank? 500 miles or so? 300 miles is more than enough to cover my daily needs at least. I imagine it is for most people, unless you fill up more than once every two days.

Yes, if you do not travel, it is a perfect car. I would not take Tesla on my camping trip, or my ski trip, or my ~700 miles road trip. And I honestly do not want a car I cannot use outside of my commute.

For most people today, an all-electric car is a pricey second car that you can't use on longer trips. Nothing inherently wrong with that. Lots of families have a couple vehicles, one of which is an SUV/minivan and the other a car. It's not even exactly unheard of for one person to own a couple of vehicles (I do). The main issue today is price which does indeed tend to put Teslas in the same category as owning a BMW as a second vehicle.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#163

Post by redler » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 9:52 PM UTC

temphn wrote: post #150

redler wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm almost certain you're not arguing that "dollars generated per person" is the only valid measure of the success of a government as compared to the success of a large corporation. So how do you factor in all the other measures of success in such an evaluation? Trivially, corporations are amoral entities that have the ability, and sometimes the obligation, to jettison lines of business that lose money or simply don'…

I'm almost certain you're not arguing that "dollars generated per person" is the only valid measure of the success of a government Sure, it isn't the only measure of success, but if this number is very low then that is (I would argue) a measure of failure. "Dollars generated per person" = tax-revenues per person is very similar to GDP-per-capita. And a high GDP-per-capita means you can spend on healthcare, earthquake…

I'm trying to be very careful to avoid responding to things you're not actually saying. This would be more fun to discuss over some beers.

Trying to tiptoe away from Godwin, I'll agree the use of moral/amoral is worth the quibble. Certainly it's people who have morals, and institutions that have, at best, ethics or principles. I'm not trying to argue that governments are moral, although they do take on responsibilities that corporations cannot or would not, and that such responsibilities can create something like a moral obligation -- operating on an axis that does not include a profit factor -- without imbuing the institution with "morals" per se.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#164

Post by redler » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 9:53 PM UTC

natural219 wrote: post #161

redler wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm almost certain you're not arguing that "dollars generated per person" is the only valid measure of the success of a government as compared to the success of a large corporation. So how do you factor in all the other measures of success in such an evaluation? Trivially, corporations are amoral entities that have the ability, and sometimes the obligation, to jettison lines of business that lose money or simply don'…

It continues to shock me how many people believe that profit-seeking or optimizing production is "immoral". I have nothing much to say about it, since this position is fundamentally irreconcilable with the core ideas of capitalism, which I use as a framework to view all sorts of different aspects of life that become problematic if we believe that people are somehow duped into spending their money or time at a utility…

You're responding to something I did not say. I said "amoral". It's different.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#165

Post by sophacles » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 10:08 PM UTC

el_cuadrado wrote: post #122

toddmorey wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally disagree. While not at gasoline car levels, Tesla has certainly passed the 'toy' mark in range. What's the range on a 5 series tank? 500 miles or so? 300 miles is more than enough to cover my daily needs at least. I imagine it is for most people, unless you fill up more than once every two days.

Yes, if you do not travel, it is a perfect car. I would not take Tesla on my camping trip, or my ski trip, or my ~700 miles road trip. And I honestly do not want a car I cannot use outside of my commute.

There is an entire, large, class of people for whom 300 miles range is more than adequate to cover a regional trip, if there is a place to charge the car overnight (e.g. at the hotel parking). Anything further is a plane ride + car rental anyway, so it's not a big deal. Your use case differs. To think this matters to a statistically significant group of people is merely logical fallacy.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#166

Post by hatcravat » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 10:20 PM UTC

to3m wrote: post #145

toddmorey wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally disagree. While not at gasoline car levels, Tesla has certainly passed the 'toy' mark in range. What's the range on a 5 series tank? 500 miles or so? 300 miles is more than enough to cover my daily needs at least. I imagine it is for most people, unless you fill up more than once every two days.

I suspect the issue is as much the comparative inconvenience of refilling as the actual range. In fact, 300 miles sounds perfectly adequate. Many cars won't go much further before they need more fuel. But if refilling involved more than spending 5 minutes at a petrol station (of which there are plenty, everywhere) it might start to sound a bit less reasonable...

I think part of the problem is also that many people underestimate the amount of time it takes to stop for gas. For city driving, you start with a full battery in the morning and never worry about stopping for gas (so the only place charge time matters is on the freeway).

The amount of time spent actually transferring liquid into the tank may only be 5 minutes. But then you need to add the time it takes for your card to authorize, the time it takes to go inside to use the restroom and buy snacks, etc. Then there's time it takes to get on and off the freeway (it always seems like there's a red light at the end of the off-ramp and another one to get out of the gas station). If you stop for fast food, that adds another 10 minutes (30 for a sit-down restaurant). Someone is sure to chime in that a gas car with three drivers and an empty container can drive 23.5 hours per day: I'm sure we've all done that at least once in college, but that mode of transport is much less appealing after one grows up.

My point is just that when all is said and done, the comparison is less like 5 minutes vs. 30 minutes and more like to 25-40 minutes vs. 40-50 minutes. The electric is still slower, but not 6 times slower, and you have an excuse to eat slightly less unhealthy food.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#167

Post by confluence » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 10:26 PM UTC

I have a significant fraction of my net worth invested in TSLA and have done so since the IPO. I believe TSLA will become a $50 billion dollar company over the forthcoming decade as it rides 2 cost trends and global GDP growth. Elon Musk does too - his renumeration package has TSLA pegged at a possible ~ $43 billion (http://seekingalpha.com/article/786711-a-43-billion-tesla-mu...).

I add to my position every month when vol. gets high - so please don't buy it :)

Fundamentally what people must understand is that electric cars have reached ICE parity in cost, use and ease of maintenance. Furthermore they either have, or will surpass, ICE vehicles in all categories over the coming decades on a total cost of ownership calculation. Finally by the end of the decade the lump sum cost of a comparable middle class electric vehicle at the dealer (or website) will be lower than an equivalent ICE vehicle on the day that you buy it.

There are 2 fundamental price forces driving this phenomena - and that is peak oil, in addition to Li-on battery production related to the explosive growth of smartphones/laptops/tablets over the last decade. Indeed this is what I look for in any investment strategy - where is the falling waterfall in cost, who is going to get fucked, and who is going to ride the barrel down. Falling prices drive the future - look for converging falling cost trends and a convergence of secondary technologies (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v... || http://www.amazon.com/Running-Money-Honchos-Monster-Markets/... || http://gigaom.com/2006/10/26/jawed-karim-how-youtube-took-of...).

> In the talk, which is about 45 minutes long, Karim also points to the confluence of broadband penetration, Flash 7, digital cameras and phones, and cheap bandwidth as environmental factors for YouTube’s birth on February 14, 2005. Then he plays the company’s very first video. Uploaded April 23, 2005, it shows Karim himself standing in front of elephants at the zoo. “The cool thing about these guys it they have really, really, really long trunks,” he says. That’s about it.

Gas prices will increase over the next 2 decades whilst battery costs will fall, squeezing ICE vehicles out the affordability range of most Americans.

Back in 1900 electric vehicles died because battery tech was not cost competitive with ICE vehicles, and rightly so, they sucked. In 2012, ICE vehicles began to die, because they were no longer competitive with electric vehicles.

Welcome to the future.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#168

Post by Lewisham » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 10:39 PM UTC

el_cuadrado wrote: post #122

toddmorey wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally disagree. While not at gasoline car levels, Tesla has certainly passed the 'toy' mark in range. What's the range on a 5 series tank? 500 miles or so? 300 miles is more than enough to cover my daily needs at least. I imagine it is for most people, unless you fill up more than once every two days.

Yes, if you do not travel, it is a perfect car. I would not take Tesla on my camping trip, or my ski trip, or my ~700 miles road trip. And I honestly do not want a car I cannot use outside of my commute.

But that makes you the outlier in most American households. Lots of American families have a car for a specific purpose: minivan for the kids or a pickup for going to Tahoe.

There is no reason that the Tesla has to make a value proposition which assumes it wont be paired with a more utilitarian vehicle by buyers. And with the superchargers, you really can drive the SF-LA corridor, which in CA at least, is very very good.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#169

Post by prodigal_erik » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 10:46 PM UTC

Tuna-Fish wrote: post #131

sukuriant wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fast enough for most needs. If you're traveling across country, a 30 minute break every 5 hours might be just what the doctor ordered. If you break apart your eating times just right, you can have it coincide with eating times. If charge time were reduced to 30 minutes in the general case for electric cars, I'd be much, much more likely to consider them a viable alternative to my current car. We just need the in…

How about the car that can use the infrastructure that already exists? All this talk about new transportation fuels imho always sidesteps the fact that gasoline will never run out . Petroleum will, but producing gasoline out of other sources is something that we already know how to do, and have done in industrial scale in the past. Fischer-Tropsch is cost-effective from coal at some point below $150 oil price. If you…

Incomplete combustion is a much bigger problem for complex molecules like hydrocarbons. Even with catalytic converters, small-scale consumer engines throw out a lot of toxic crap besides pure CO2.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#170

Post by patrickk » Wed, Dec 05, 2012, 10:51 PM UTC

timdorr wrote: post #115

ImprovedSilence wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like ford has about 5B in loans from them. And Fisker Automotive has a lil more than Tesla in loans. and Fisker makes some damn sexy cars: https://www.google.com/search?q=fisker&oe=utf-8&aq=t...

Yep, they're definitely hot cars: http://jalopnik.com/5956179/more-than-a-dozen-fisker-karma-h...

Elon Musk doesn't regard Fisker as a serious competitor. He said something like: "Fisker is headed up by a car designer, not an engineer. The reason we haven't had electric cars isn't because they looked bad" (or words to that effect).