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Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

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Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#111
post #109

This is good news, but being cash flow positive over a week is not really an impressive achievement. It's easy enough to game this milestone by rescheduling payments, if they chose to do that. Even if they didn't, it's such a short time frame it's hard to measure anything because there's so much noise. Will they announce full profitability over a 24 hour period in Elon's next tweet? One hour? That said, I'm impressed…

I suggest that you start a car company, invent the whole stack, build out a giant factory in Fremont, and a nationwide network of retail outlets.

If you're profitable during any part of that exercise, you can then start to talk about it not being an impressive achievement.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#112
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Horrible idea. Especially in industries that are capital intensive (i.e. high starting costs), the markets heavily favor the existing players, who have a vested interest in preserving the status quo. In such markets, if you want innovation then you need government assistance for startups.

So you're arguing that the search engine space, or new computer manufacturers, or rocket ships did better before venture capital and startups got involved?

What?

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#113
post #108
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue it is possible to believe both that Tesla is a great company and that Romney was generally right in that many of the green investments have indeed been losers (Solyndra, A123, Beacon Power, Abound Solar, ...). Lest we forget, Romney is/was a pretty great investor and entrepreneur himself, just like Elon Musk. It's unfortunate that Romney included Tesla in his list of green losers - he did start this fig…

I've heard two lines of reasoning used to justify those and similar expenses: 1. The government, which can be considered as a sovereign corporation, has a moral obligation to run at a loss because certain ventures are "inherently unprofitable" 2. If Tesla is a big success, the tax revenues from the increased capital in the market (directly from Tesla itself but also all the things it influences) will pay for the loss…

Well, so, I'm an empiricist on this. Absolutely one can point to companies like Tesla (or defense contractors in an earlier time) which received a ton of government money and by any objective measure did push technology forward.

But one can also point to companies like Google which received only $25M in venture funding and certainly went on to create ridiculous amounts of wealth by any measure. And I believe this is the ecosystem argument you're getting at, if I'm not mistaken?

So now it becomes a quantitative question. Economics is notoriously resistant to controlled experiments, but I think that in the main the experience of the 20th century has showed us that you want to have most wealth allocated by the market. If you look at all Eastern Bloc nations, the Soviet Union, North Korea, pre-Deng China, pre-reform Vietnam, and so on down the list...and then compare them to West Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, you've got a pretty good case for less government intervention in the market.

The few countries that do government/tech investments reasonably well are pretty small countries like Singapore run by technically savvy guys, and there too the government is keenly aware of the fact that it needs to treat companies well or they will leave.

So, for what it's worth, regarding this point:

  the tax revenues from the increased capital in the market 
  (directly from Tesla itself but also all the things it 
  influences)
Basically if the idea is that government involvement can create a favorable ecosystem, I think that an even more favorable ecosystem is one where the government just hangs back and lets the market punch it out ("laissez-nous faire"). Some companies will die and won't get bailouts. Some companies will look like they're on the ropes and then make an incredible comeback. But no company will be able to call in the government, the guy with the gun. Then it's not a fair fight anymore, and (extending the analogy) you scramble to get out of the ring/country because you can't win.

Put it this way: when the ref has bet $500M on your competitor, there is no point in playing.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is assuming BMW et all stop any innovation. But they won't. They will offer an electric vehicle the moment it becomes feasible (and I am sorry but 200 miles range is still an exciting and expensive toy).

The range on the top-of-the-line Model S is 300, not 200, miles. And with Superchargers, it's no longer just a toy.

In the very limited areas where there is currently Supercharger coverage. Also, 30 minutes for a charge isn't exactly fast.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#115
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instructions to sign up are right over here http://www.lgprogram.energy.gov/

It looks like ford has about 5B in loans from them. And Fisker Automotive has a lil more than Tesla in loans. and Fisker makes some damn sexy cars: https://www.google.com/search?q=fisker&oe=utf-8&aq=t...

Yep, they're definitely hot cars: http://jalopnik.com/5956179/more-than-a-dozen-fisker-karma-h...

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#116
post #87

Great news! Here's hoping they're able to place superchargers across the country within a year as planned. As much as one part of me wants to see Elon Musk succeed just to prove Romney wrong for calling Tesla a loser, it's more important to see Tesla do well for the benefits we may reap from companies like this trying to make better solutions and provide excellent competition to the status quo. That being said, I'm f…

I would argue it is possible to believe both that Tesla is a great company and that Romney was generally right in that many of the green investments have indeed been losers (Solyndra, A123, Beacon Power, Abound Solar, ...). Lest we forget, Romney is/was a pretty great investor and entrepreneur himself, just like Elon Musk. It's unfortunate that Romney included Tesla in his list of green losers - he did start this fig…

I don't really think you can evaluate government loans the same way you would as a private investor. The federal government has defacto senior equity in every company that is incorporated and/or operates in the US. As a private investor the only upside you get from a loan is the interest. It's not even entirely fair to use a VC type model here as the government will also reap rewards from companies that indirectly benefit from these investments.

Your points regarding state-owned companies is more a case against equity investment and a defense of the loan model. The US government isn't going to go to extreme measures to recoup a billion dollars and because it doesn't have any additional equity there's no other real incentive to prop up the companies that it has loaned money to. The free market is an extremely powerful system that is capable of remarkable things but it's not perfect and there are problems that the free market won't address on it's own (climate change being a poster boy example).

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#117

Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the fru…

This is assuming BMW et all stop any innovation. But they won't. They will offer an electric vehicle the moment it becomes feasible (and I am sorry but 200 miles range is still an exciting and expensive toy).

Totally disagree. While not at gasoline car levels, Tesla has certainly passed the 'toy' mark in range. What's the range on a 5 series tank? 500 miles or so? 300 miles is more than enough to cover my daily needs at least. I imagine it is for most people, unless you fill up more than once every two days.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#118

Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the fru…

This is assuming BMW et all stop any innovation. But they won't. They will offer an electric vehicle the moment it becomes feasible (and I am sorry but 200 miles range is still an exciting and expensive toy).

This is like saying that Sony can make an mp3 player, so the iPod isn't competitive in that market. Or that a 5GB iPod won't hold enough music, so it's just an expensive toy. Within 5-10 years the battery problem will improve, especially if there is demand. This is technology, not automotive development. We're not in Detroit anymore.

They're in a different class. Tesla is set up to do it right from the start at a much faster pace.

Tesla will be the Apple of anything that moves, trust me. It was clear to me when I saw the Roadster design and the roadmap, but I digress...

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#119
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The range on the top-of-the-line Model S is 300, not 200, miles. And with Superchargers, it's no longer just a toy.

In the very limited areas where there is currently Supercharger coverage. Also, 30 minutes for a charge isn't exactly fast.

Patience, patience.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but maybe the frunk + full trunk is new?

The MKII MR2 turbo had both a trunk and a frunk. Not to the capacity of the Tesla, but still.

I assume the NA model was the same way? Or just the turbo?
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