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Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

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Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#81
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. The core function of government is to provide a social order. Police enforce rule of law, and legislatures write the law. Military protects our sovereignty against outsiders, and citizens pay taxes for these benefits. While military and police spending fit your description (they are not necessarily profitable but provide a social benefit), I argue that social order is the primary function of government. I…

Governments have been involved in 'public works' for at least the last 10,000 years. Without it you end up with a weaker society with a weaker military which is then easy pray to invaders. It may have started out as roads, bridges, defensive structures, and irrigation systems. But the CDC is well within that domain.

I agree that the CDC is a legitimate example of something that only government can afford to offer. But we can have a government without the CDC. We can have government without welfare or social security. We can take many things away from government and still call it a government. Taking this to its extreme, if we remove the social order provided by police or the sovereign protection provided by military, laws and borders become meaningless and our government becomes anarchy.

This is not to day that we should or shouldn't take these things away (or add more, for that matter), but that the core of government's purpose is social order for its citizens.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#82
post #11
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you would be surprised I think Tesla's strategy has three stages. 1) Niche high cost vehicle sold in low volumes(Roadster) 2) Medium cost luxury vehicle sold in medium volumes(Model S) 3) Low cost high volume vehicle sold in high volumes. (Model ???) Obviously this is a gross over simplification but I imagine that part of the engineering that is going on at TESLA is figuring out how to build 3 cheaper and at…

I am aware of their strategy, I just worry that the big automakers with their massive distribution and infrastructures already in place could easily come in and be 10 steps ahead of Tesla and provide a vehicle that isn't as sexy but has the same appeal to the electric car market. I could be overestimating their ability to innovate after so many years of sitting on the same old tired technology, but something tells me…

I think Musk would be quite satisfied if the major automakers actually had affordable, high-performance electric cars as a staple.

Mission accomplished and all that.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#83

Great news! Here's hoping they're able to place superchargers across the country within a year as planned. As much as one part of me wants to see Elon Musk succeed just to prove Romney wrong for calling Tesla a loser, it's more important to see Tesla do well for the benefits we may reap from companies like this trying to make better solutions and provide excellent competition to the status quo. That being said, I'm f…

Just for future reference, what's the benchmark for calling Romney's prediction accurate? Do they have to liquidate or is it enough that they fail to be able to continue to independently deliver cars to the market? I'd love it if Tesla would succeed sheerly because their product seems so slick, but I agree with Romney that the government is a lousy institution to be picking companies that "should" get half-billion do…

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Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#84
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the difference in "sexy" between Ford making a few hundred thousand electric cars and Tesla making a few hundred thousand electric cars is worth risking half a billion dollars of the taxpayers' money?

Ford received a loan that was an order of magnitude larger than what Tesla received. You're arguing from your biases and not from facts.

Ford did not receive any "bailout" funds, either as equity or debt.

"As the only one of the U.S. Big Three that didn't accept the offer of a federal-government bailout in 2009, Ford [relied] instead on its own huge bet on its future financed by private capital and led by CEO Alan Mulally"

http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2012/10/26/Ford-Europe...

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#85
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the difference in "sexy" between Ford making a few hundred thousand electric cars and Tesla making a few hundred thousand electric cars is worth risking half a billion dollars of the taxpayers' money?

Ford received a loan that was an order of magnitude larger than what Tesla received. You're arguing from your biases and not from facts.

Good point.

https://lpo.energy.gov/?page_id=43

I'm confused by the criteria described at the bottom of the page:

In order to be financially eligible for an ATVM loan, an applicant must be financially viable without the receipt of additional federal funding for the proposed project.

Would Tesla really have been financially viable without this loan?

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#86
Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the frunk?), reliability (electric cars have far less moving parts), and store experience (Tesla retail stores are a way better customer experience than a typical car dealership). It's difficult to drive a Model S and NOT say that you've driven the future.

The Model S is so good that all they need to do is make it into a SUV (Model X) and they'll have the coolest high-end SUV (coming 2014).

Then, they just need to make the Model S smaller (GenIII Bluestar) and then they'll have the best small luxury sport sedan on the market (ie., BMW 3 series, Lexus IS, Audi A4 market). Elon Musk has said they're going after the BMW 3 Series market with the GenIII car, and he's determined to make a best car in that market. Just like the Model S is better than a BMW 5 Series in most regards, the GenIII will be better than the BMW 3 Series in most regards. I know it might be difficult for many people to accept that (especially since the BMW 3 Series is legendary) but Tesla's got all the right pieces and has proven they can do it with the Model S. Again, they just need to shrink the Model S and make it more affordable.

But GenIII is slated for 2015 at the earliest and it takes a while to dominate a car segment even after you have a stellar car. I expect Tesla to become increasingly competitive (in terms of # sales) to the BMW 3 series by 2020 and perhaps dominant by 2025 (if not earlier).

Elon Musk has repeatedly said that Tesla Motors is not a typical car company but rather a technology company that will innovate at a blistering pace. As long as they continue to do that, they'll be fine.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#87

Great news! Here's hoping they're able to place superchargers across the country within a year as planned. As much as one part of me wants to see Elon Musk succeed just to prove Romney wrong for calling Tesla a loser, it's more important to see Tesla do well for the benefits we may reap from companies like this trying to make better solutions and provide excellent competition to the status quo. That being said, I'm f…

I would argue it is possible to believe both that Tesla is a great company and that Romney was generally right in that many of the green investments have indeed been losers (Solyndra, A123, Beacon Power, Abound Solar, ...).

Lest we forget, Romney is/was a pretty great investor and entrepreneur himself, just like Elon Musk. It's unfortunate that Romney included Tesla in his list of green losers - he did start this fight - but Tesla is the exception that proves the rule. The government has not come close to making money on its green energy bets, and will not even if Tesla is a massive success. It has lost $535M on Solyndra, $249M on A123, and $400M on Abound Solar. Even if Tesla is profitable enough to pay back its $465M loan, this is a very poor risk-adjusted return. Many of the other companies in the green energy portfolio are reportedly quite sick as well; we shall see what happens to the 26 that received loan guarantees in five years.

The dismal history of Russian and Chinese state-owned enterprises should be sufficient to give us pause, but the reasons that people oppose government funding of companies like this are several fold:

  1. The government has the power to regulate or tax 
     competitors into submission. Regulators have strong 
     political incentives to begin colluding with 
     funded companies at the expense of the consumer to show 
     that the investment was a "success". This can be done 
     without fingerprints by doing things like holding 
     competitors to a higher bar when applying for permits.

  2. Unlike the funds pledged by an LP, tax dollars are 
     extracted coercively (via threat of police action for 
     failing to pay the IRS). Arguably such acts should be 
     kept to a bare minimum. 

  3. The federal government is notoriously poor at being on 
     the cutting edge of technology; it is unlikely that they 
     will make better investment decisions than professional 
     investors.
One can go further, but it is striking to see how companies like Uber or AirBnB run into political roadblocks, while other companies receive $500M loans. The government is not just any old company or investor, the government has guns and can compel action in a way that others cannot. As such it is very powerful to have as a investor and very dangerous to have as a competitor. Too dangerous.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#88

Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the fru…

Great comment, thank you. I'd just like to add that the "frunk" isn't new -- I've been stashing my gym bag in my Porsche 911's frunk for years (it's a rear-engined car).

Edit: While I absolutely live the Model S, I can assure you that exceeding stalwarts of the 5-series category, like the BMW M5, will not be as easy to disrupt as the market the Model S aims for.

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#89
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How about a third option? The government doesn't bet on anybody and let's the market sort out the winners.

Horrible idea. Especially in industries that are capital intensive (i.e. high starting costs), the markets heavily favor the existing players, who have a vested interest in preserving the status quo. In such markets, if you want innovation then you need government assistance for startups.

So you're arguing that the search engine space, or new computer manufacturers, or rocket ships did better before venture capital and startups got involved?

Re: Tesla Was Cash Flow Positive Last Week, CEO Musk Says

#90
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford received a loan that was an order of magnitude larger than what Tesla received. You're arguing from your biases and not from facts.

Ford did not receive any "bailout" funds, either as equity or debt. "As the only one of the U.S. Big Three that didn't accept the offer of a federal-government bailout in 2009, Ford [relied] instead on its own huge bet on its future financed by private capital and led by CEO Alan Mulally" http://www.brandchannel.com/home/post/2012/10/26/Ford-Europe...

That's right, ford didn't get a bailout, they got the exact same loan Tesla has, but theirs was bigger.
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