Earlier quoted context omitted.
The implications are not significant..? the real world is messy enough that this will not ever apply.
The vast majority of cash transactions are fired by a computer model so the implication are significant. It goes a long way towards explaining why increasingly financialized countries aren't experiencing noticeable real world improvement while also becoming increasingly extractive.
Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
161–170 of 176 posts
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless and until desktop OSes make typing symbols not on the keyboard as easy as iOS or Android, I can't be bothered.
It's pretty easy on Linux with the compose key. To get "≠", you just hit compose, then "/", then "=". That's actually the same number of keystrokes as "!=" (since "!" requires the shift key). For whatever reason, the OS documentation lacks a list of allowed compose key sequences. But they are intuitive enough that you can find many of them through experimentation. For example: Musical sharp ("♯"): compose + "#" + "#"…
Oops, I got one wrong.
Copyright("©"): compose + "c" + "o".
The one I had is bigger: Ⓒ vs. ©.
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#163Very interesting. The author claims to have proved that markets can be informationally efficient or competitive, but not both. The implications for policy and regulation are significant. The author looks credible: https://philipmaymin.com/about-philip Thank you for sharing this on HN. -- To the mods: The title needs to be edited to replace the equal sign with not-equal.
The implications are not significant..? the real world is messy enough that this will not ever apply.
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#164Would anyone mind explaining what P and NP are?
It's a vast generalization of the cost to verify a problem/solution. - P means polynomial - NP means nondeterministic polynomial Roughly polynomial (P) represents the upper bound of the cost to verify, and the polynomial characterization says that given a problem with a certain input (e.g. the input can be the number of training examples in ML training set or the number of constraints/conditions in a general problem—…
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#165Earlier quoted context omitted.
They're not necessarily maximising utility, just the number on the screen.
"Ahkchually the paperclip maximizer isn't maximizing [human] utility, just a dumb metric" isn't a particularly useful observation to make in the context of the world being gradually consumed by an army of nanobots.
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#166Earlier quoted context omitted.
Game theory here is applied to two fundamental market theorems. It’s a way to analyze the validity of those assumptions, rather than to build a new model. Empirical evidence to the contrary is expected given mutually inconsistent premises, which is what the author’s results predict. The author has simply used game theory math to disprove economist math.
Simple resolution: the market isn’t maximally efficient at all information discovery but it is optimally efficient as far as is practical. The economist math still works.
I admit I’m not particularly well versed in this space, but I’ve never come across that formulation, only the “pure” one the original researcher says is internally inconsistent. I don’t necessarily buy “it’s close enough it doesn’t matter” given what I perceive as many notable exceptions.
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be fair, macroeconomics can hardly be called science, though. It is incredibly hard to falsify a lot of the theories given the lack of possibilities for experimentation. It is far closer to philosophy than to any of the even remotely hard sciences. Nothing to do with ideology, but with the nature of the field. Take epidemiological research in the areas of food and medicine: incredibly hard and expensive to get rig…
An argument of the last couple of decades is that videogames have built incredible labs for macroeconomic experimentation. So far mostly what we learn are failure cases (mudflation, being such a big learning from videogames that the term itself is named after a type of them), but we are learning things (some of them exploitative, but that's a different ethical question).
These games do not include many of the complexities of the real world and can thus provide few insights that generalize to the real world on a macroeconomic level. They are toy universes. I'm not saying they are useless, far from it, but they are not "incredible labs for macroeconomic experimentation".
Try determining the effect of raising the central bank interest rate within a game of your choice. Or changing the minimum wage. Or the effects of investing in education. Etc.
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
An argument of the last couple of decades is that videogames have built incredible labs for macroeconomic experimentation. So far mostly what we learn are failure cases (mudflation, being such a big learning from videogames that the term itself is named after a type of them), but we are learning things (some of them exploitative, but that's a different ethical question).
You are overstating this. Mudflation does not transfer to the real world well, if at all. Very few skill-capped bits of DLC for real world activities. These games do not include many of the complexities of the real world and can thus provide few insights that generalize to the real world on a macroeconomic level. They are toy universes. I'm not saying they are useless, far from it, but they are not " incredible labs…
Mudflation aka hyperinflation aka situations where "the money printer goes brr too fast" have happened in the real world. Sometimes at "extremely" small scale (for macroeconomics) such as company town scrip, but they've happened and affected real people's lives.
But also, if Bitcoin is real then videogame economies are very real. You can trade USD for most in-game currencies. Sometimes directly in game as micro-transactions today ("diamond" or "platinum" middle funging currencies that convert to other game currencies), sometimes on trading platforms that are certainly against game terms of service and possibly illegal in some states, but that doesn't really stop them existing or people living in low wage countries making ends meet by grinding game currencies to sell for "realer" ones.
(Mudflation is also the answer to the why the book I read of "Ready Player One" was better than the one the author wrote because it seemed obvious the economy in the book was a textbook mudflationary one and much of the dystopia outside of its central game could easily be explained by how much of its economy was tied into its in game mudflationary currency. I appreciated that Hank Green's book "A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor" did a better job of doing that on purpose.)
> They are toy universes.
So are most experiments, fundamentally. You model the real world as best you can. You do what you can to eliminate variables. You learn from your experiment and you improve your model. You can't test the entire universe all at once, that's too many variables, you find the interesting toys that seem to look enough like our current understanding of our universe and then you play them until you break them (assert either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis). Repeat until done.
Your examples seem easy to build toy universes for. The Animal Crossing series has decades of "research" in the effects of raising a central bank interest rate. (Look for Tom Nook memes, they alone are a modern study of macroeconomics and teenagers' direct relationships with them.) Many MMOs have "trades" and "crafts" that need to balance a minimum wage to get players interested and/or invested in them versus opportunity costs in other systems in the game. Funding Education is a similar problem explored in various RPG mechanics by sometimes direct analogies such as investments into player attributes and skill levels and skill trees.
And so on and so forth. The boundary between "real" and "virtual" economics seems nearly nonexistent, they are the same thing (and currency always wants to flow between them). In this case the map seems to be the territory. In this case the analogy seems to be the real thing. Because people are involved and people are ultimately irrational, but start to do really interesting economic things the more people you put in the same "place", whether virtual or real. Which is what macroeconomics has always been about.
Re: Markets are competitive if and only if P != NP
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are overstating this. Mudflation does not transfer to the real world well, if at all. Very few skill-capped bits of DLC for real world activities. These games do not include many of the complexities of the real world and can thus provide few insights that generalize to the real world on a macroeconomic level. They are toy universes. I'm not saying they are useless, far from it, but they are not " incredible labs…
They are incredible compared to "no labs at all" and "no way to run experiments" as the above poster lamented. Mudflation aka hyperinflation aka situations where "the money printer goes brr too fast" have happened in the real world. Sometimes at "extremely" small scale (for macroeconomics) such as company town scrip, but they've happened and affected real people's lives. But also, if Bitcoin is real then videogame ec…
That is a nonsensically low bar. You basically destroy the entire scale by labeling the bare minimum as such.
> Mudflation aka hyperinflation aka situations where "the money printer goes brr too fast"
That is not what mudflation is at all.
>> They are toy universes.
> So are most experiments, fundamentally.
Nonsense. Most experiments are performed on actual real world stuff rather than an analogue of it: something like looking at how actual food affects actual humans rather than what happens when feeding virtual characters virtual apples. Limited or narrowly scoped real world experiments != toy universe experiments.
An inbetween category would be (human) drug experiments on mice, which are real world and where the results still don't generalize to humans often.
> Your examples seem easy to build toy universes for.
Yeah, no shit. My point was that those are horribly incomplete and don't generalize: "These games do not include many of the complexities of the real world and can thus provide few insights that generalize to the real world on a macroeconomic level."
Your examples are incredibly inadequate compared to the real world and have exactly 0 predictive power in said real world. In recent decades, the entire field of economy has been dumbfounded by the (lack of) effects of quantitative easing and the central interest rate on inflation in the USA and the EU. Maybe try telling them that they should look into the economy of Animal Crossing /s.