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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#531

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

solenoid0937 wrote: post #291
nl wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jensen said the Huawei Ascend 950 is roughly comparable to the NVidia H200[1] The H200 was released Nov 2024. Even allowing for Jensen exaggerating the risk there is no way China is 7-10 years behind. Looking at manufacturing process nodes, SMIC N+3 is a a 5nm process. 5nm was introduced by Samsung and TSMC in 2020 so at most that is 6 years. But the chips they can produce on it are roughly comparable to "roughly lev…

2-4 years is enough to lock them out of the race.

The H200 is a more powerful H100, and the H100 is far from obsolete - for example it is what Musk's Colossus-1 data center, currently being rented to Anthropic, uses.

The only difference between using a slower chip such as H100 (or Huawei's Ascend 750) vs NVIDIA's newer Blackwell chips (B200 etc) is that you need more of the slower chips to achieve the same total FLOPs in your cluster. It has zero effect on what models you can run on it.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#532

Post by jm4 »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #243
bluepeter wrote: post #202

Fable 5 apparently can't be used for coding? (This is from Anthropic's announcement.) > After a series of productive conversations with the US government, we're redeploying the model with a new set of classifiers to target and block more cybersecurity tasks. In the near term, some routine tasks like coding and debugging will fall back to Opus 4.8. Edit: the above was from their tweet announcement at https://x.com/Ant…

> Fable 5 will be included for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7, after which it will be available via usage credits. > The new classifier also comes at the cost of flagging benign requests more often during routine coding and debugging tasks. Here's Fable 5, the strongest model. Actually try to use it to harden your code and it turns into Opus 4.8. You have seven days to use it, and only half of that t…

It was already frustrating to use before. I wanted to review my own code for OWASP top 10 kind of stuff and it kept refusing. It repeatedly popped up scary warnings about how I was violating TOS. I had to go through quite a few iterations of that prompt. When I finally got it to work it burned through all my remaining usage on a single run.

I won’t even bother with it if they’ve made it even more frustrating. Instead, I’ve been using a combo of Opus 4.8, GLM 5.2 and DeepSeek v4 Pro. Then I have Opus synthesize and verify the reports from all 3 and make the fixes.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#533

Post by nicoburns »

andsoitis wrote: post #523
reacharavindh wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

> as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! It is interesting to hear a European exclaim they would rather depend on a selection of models from companies in China with concomitant strings attached, rather than be dependent on a selection of models from companies in America. Isn't…

Note the GP says "I will spread my money towards the Chinese models AS WELL", so it's more of a case of encouraging competition rather than betting on any one actor.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#534

Post by andsoitis »

nicoburns wrote: post #533
andsoitis wrote: post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! It is interesting to hear a European exclaim they would rather depend on a selection of models from companies in China with concomitant strings attached, rather than be dependent on a selection of models from companies in America. Isn't…

Note the GP says "I will spread my money towards the Chinese models AS WELL", so it's more of a case of encouraging competition rather than betting on any one actor.

The "as well" is ambiguous. I interpreted it as "like other people are doing" rather than "spend twice as much as contingency". To me it seems like the more parsimonious interpretation, but I could very well be mistaken and they are indeed planning to throw money in both directions already just in case.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#535

Post by burnerRhodov3 »

reacharavindh wrote: post #332
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

Europe seems to be going through an identity crisis lately, and i hope this sentiment doesn't continue. Europe becoming more reliant on the Chinese is not the answer, and will, if continues, isolate the EU from the US.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#536

Post by aspenmartin »

dgellow wrote: post #515
aspenmartin wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but in an equilibrium steady state, compute and data advantages are all you need to first order. China does not yet have a compute advantage. RL is indeed the magic sauce for coding agents but the bottleneck for how much progress you can make, for both the US and China, is compute. The US at least for the next few years has a clear advantage here.

So, China is in the race. Just not leading yet

Exactly -- the hope for US strategy is that you can slow them down a lot but not forever. That slowing them down is in itself enough to keep a strategic advantage over them both in terms of economic growth and offensive capabilities both in terms of cyber attacks, intelligence and things like drones, etc.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#537

Post by aspenmartin »

HarHarVeryFunny wrote: post #525
aspenmartin wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its like any other sanction, its designed to slow not stop

But it actually had the exact opposite effect. First the US blocked China from buying NVIDIA's H100, but allowed NVIDIA to sell them a China-special nerfed H100, the H800 Then the US blocked the H800 Then the US realized that China was indeed accelerating their US independence, so does a U-turn and has now approved the H200 (more powerful than both the H100 and H800) for sale to China, on a case-by-case basis However…

The Jensen argument that "oh we get them hooked on our technology and that will actually be better" is bullshit -- they would do the exact same thing they're doing now of building their own supply chains and compute power but be able to accelerate their progress in the meantime with US chips. It is worse in every way to sell them SOTA chips (or even previous generation chips).

Of course they have ways around this -- you can get black market GPUs and also API costs are SUPER cheap there -- they hack the subscription model, bundle a bunch of user accounts, and route API requests through them.

And yes they are getting to parity with US technology and will get there in a few years, they have decent chips but still not the quality of NVIDIA.

It's really a very complex situation

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#538

Post by orangecat »

seviu wrote: post #361
reacharavindh wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

This. I have been using anthropic and codex subs, on max. All this changed in June. We are clearly entering an era where we cannot rely on American models. As a solo developer I value reliability over performance. I cannot pay hundred of $, plus a lot of my private time figuring out how to properly use this technology, for it to be taken away within hours. On top of that, the intelligence is being dialed down. Sonet…

the intelligence is being dialed down. Sonet 5 is a living proof of this.

Huh? Sonnet 5 is a strict improvement over Sonnet 4.6 at the same price.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#539

Post by Tangurena2 »

bpodgursky wrote: post #119
ryandrake wrote: post #112

"Taken Steps" Looks like Anthropic paid the Danegeld. Now they'll never get rid of the Dane.

I mean, they did eventually get rid of the Danes.

That involved a rather genocidal approach in 1065 - killing everyone related to, or doing business with the Vikings. This tends to get downplayed by historians. And when the Vikings/Norsemen came back for revenge in 1066, King Harold 2nd managed to kill off the Viking force at Stamford Bridge, but was too exhausted when William invaded down south (being defeated at Hastings). 300-ish miles is a short drive by car, but in an era long before preserved food or mechanized transport, such a march over about 2 weeks would have been terrible.

Overview: https://www.bbc.co.uk/history/ancient/vikings/overview_vikin...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northumbrian_Revolt_of_1065

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stamford_Bridge

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hastings

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#540

Post by truthbe »

aqfamnzc wrote: post #507
dbbk wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh come on Opus is perfectly good enough for any coding task. You will barely notice when it drops down from Fable.

Why use Fable at all then?

Still waiting for the answer.
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