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Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

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Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#391

Post by Chyzwar »

bel8 wrote: post #274
Der_Einzige wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is nonsense. The gap between Chinese models and American frontier models is estimated at 10 months by Anthropic themselves, and it's growing. China has no flywheel for long-form agentic traces like Claude Code and its telemetry over its userbase (no one uses the Chinese harnesses yet). Most Chinese models are forced to price themselves significantly below cost to compete with the huge demand for bootleg claude t…

If Anthropic themselves say competition is 10 months behind, it's probably 5 or less. And you seem to think "no one uses" DeepSeek's v4, z.AI's GLM 5.2 or Xiaomi's MiMo 2.5 from their official APIs when they probably dwarf Anthropic's usage and are widening the gap due to conquering a chunk of Western market too. I know it's hard for some to comprehend there's an entire Eastern hemisphere in the globe with billions o…

Because claude subscription tokens are cheaper than deepseek and friends. You have whole industry of people reselling Claude subscriptions in China.

Can you comprehend than Anthropic is winning because is both cheap(subscriptions) and better SOTA. People are cheering China providers when I reality they would rugpull open weights the moment they are competive.

China models are trash that why they are giving them away for free.

For individuals and small companies subscriptions is the best deal, for big companies china models are big no unless they can host them.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#392

Post by jonathrg »

mlyle wrote: post #266
SwellJoe wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What range of numbers do you believe "a few" represents?

Opinions vary, but: A couple: usually 2, though not always A few: 3, 4, 5 Several: 4, 5, 6, or 7.

Several and a few are the same number, they only differ rhetorically.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#393

Post by sshine »

PeterStuer wrote: post #341
Aurornis wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. The switching costs of changing LLM providers is as low as it gets. All the individuals and startups I know try different models all of the time, even down to the level of choosing which provider to use based on the task. Bigger companies move slower but only beca…

For real production I find the switching cost is not as trivial as you portray. Even going to a new model version in the same model family, say GPT-4o to GPT-5.2, a transition I just finished on a not too complicated application, requires extensive retesting and tweaking of prompts, guardrails and parameters.

I second this; even switching between minor versions of a model, you need to adjust prompts: the new model is better by implying a bunch of things that, when included in the prompt, will overdo that thing.

Assessing quality of output is often not trivial, either. Typically, problems that are solved by offloading something to an LLM are super subjective, and customers “feel” something is different is vulnerable.

We try to quantify output differences by many different similarity metrics. But a lot of energy goes into subjectively evaluating if something still works.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#394

Post by mike_hearn »

vintagedave wrote: post #353
reacharavindh wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

> Mistral is just not competitive enough Does anyone know why? I was really excited when they emerged, but their models and targets don't seem to be quite in the same market.

Lack of capital and (probably) lack of willingness to mass distill Anthropic and OpenAI.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#395

Post by rglullis »

Sammi wrote: post #368
lelanthran wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm a small software business owner in Europe. I have to assume my competition is willing to pay for any business advantage they can get. And so I also have to pay for the SOTA model, whatever it is. If you make money from doing anything like "produce software with as little human involvement as possible", then sure, you need SOTA models. In that case, though, the value you add is very little and you probably don't…

I'm the only dev. I simply don't have time for dealing with the code from non-SOTA models. I'm doing all I can to keep this business afloat.

If you think your business depends on the ability for you to outspend the competition on LLM tokens, then you should cut your losses and shut it down right now.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#396

Post by lelanthran »

Sammi wrote: post #379
slim wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can compete by being smart and using less-than-sota models and build a more solid business around them

I use whatever model is SOTA. I switch between them in order to avoid lock in.

>I use whatever model is SOTA. I switch between them in order to avoid lock in.

What's your competitive edge here? Shaving off an hour of a feature delivery? Not having to see the code that is produced?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#397

Post by notrealyme123 »

boc wrote: post #86
drevil-v2 wrote: post #29

The damage is done. You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Especially not with the current crew in charge. Now whether AI tech is in the same league as say Nuclear tech and therefore by any reasonable standard should be regulated is a different question. We hit the slippery slope on a random day in June 2026 and there is no putting the genie back in the bottle. Any exec…

> You cannot build a business critical function on top of American SOTA frontier model. Yes 1000%, please, all my European competition please don't use mythos whatever you do it's total USA trash and the Chinese models work better anyway.

Please elaborate, I don't understand.

Why is it good if they give their money to China?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#398

Post by lelanthran »

watwut wrote: post #310
satvikpendem wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're an enterprise (including startups), you worry about customers, not code quality. There are famously many startups that gained traction despite shit code and then eventually got around to fixing it, to whatever extent was possible, like Facebook HHVM, Stripe's Sorbet, etc.

Startups failed because they cound not untangle own code after 4 months. Literally true stories (plural).

> Startups failed because they cound not untangle own code after 4 months.

That's rare, though. If they could not untangle their own code after 4 months, it's because they were not making enough money to pay a team to untangle it - that's not a code problem, it's a revenue problem.

IOW, the startup failed because their revenue was too low.

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#399

Post by lelanthran »

matheusmoreira wrote: post #233
K0balt wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This x 10 . I don’t understand how people are saying you can’t use LLMs to get crazy productivity gains. If you can’t write quality code with LLMs at ludicrous speed, you’re holding it wrong. You will have occasional bad days and regressions. But overall you’re still going to be able to 4x your progress.

I measured an ~8x increase in my project's commit count after AI, and I'm painstakingly reading, reviewing, understanding and editing everything the models write. It's gotten to the point I'm trying to slow down in order to let the new knowledge crystallize. I'm manually writing articles about what I'm doing as I go. I can only imagine what people are doing at their jobs with unlimited token budgets.

> I measured an ~8x increase in my project's commit count after AI,

That's irrelevant. What's the increase in revenue?

Re: Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5

#400

Post by Forgeties79 »

seviu wrote: post #361
reacharavindh wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this will fly until a competitor from outside the US releases a “freedom” model that is even 90% as capable as Fable was without its shackles. But, as a frustrated EU resident lamenting a lack of European option(Mistral is just not competitive enough), I will spread my money towards the Chinese models as well. Thank you Murica! You achieved your soft power by pushing us towards the Chinese :-) This protectionism…

This. I have been using anthropic and codex subs, on max. All this changed in June. We are clearly entering an era where we cannot rely on American models. As a solo developer I value reliability over performance. I cannot pay hundred of $, plus a lot of my private time figuring out how to properly use this technology, for it to be taken away within hours. On top of that, the intelligence is being dialed down. Sonet…

I feel like I see this comment every few months and yet in between people keep talking about all of the functionality they’re getting out of anthropic’s offerings. It doesn’t seem to me that people are willing to give up the “shackles” as it were and we’re just going to wind up with what we’re fearing here. On top of that, local models are just not turnkey enough for the average person yet (go ahead and drop somebody into LM studio and tell them to get to work, it won’t go well).
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