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AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#211

Post by [deleted] »

peterbecich wrote: post #156
red369 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always loved this from The Big Short (movie): "In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers and rating agency's executives went to jail. The SEC was completely overhauled, and Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks and regulate the mortgage and derivatives industries. Just kidding. Banks took the money the American people gave them, and they used it to pay themselves huge bonuses, and lobby the Congr…

The narrative of the Big Short omits something big i.m.o.: encouragement of easy mortgage lending standards by Washington politicians. Is this line about the SEC the only reference to government in the movie?

[deleted]

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#212

Post by dqv »

peterbecich wrote: post #156
red369 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Always loved this from The Big Short (movie): "In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers and rating agency's executives went to jail. The SEC was completely overhauled, and Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks and regulate the mortgage and derivatives industries. Just kidding. Banks took the money the American people gave them, and they used it to pay themselves huge bonuses, and lobby the Congr…

The narrative of the Big Short omits something big i.m.o.: encouragement of easy mortgage lending standards by Washington politicians. Is this line about the SEC the only reference to government in the movie?

But that just goes back to the banks again. Why did the Washington politicians encourage easy mortgage lending standards? Lobbying by big banks. https://scholarship.law.gwu.edu/faculty_publications/1301/

In a similar vein with CAFE standards: why were those loop holes introduced? Lobbying by the auto industry.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#213

Post by kevin_thibedeau »

slumberlust wrote: post #173
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to wait 20 years for the returns to society. Public education was enormously successful when it was introduced in the 19th century. There's just no profit in waiting for second order effects to kick in.

What makes you choose the 19th century for public education creation? It was my understanding the Puritans and thusly Yankees that spread through NE and the north Midwest were staunch proponents of schoolhouses and publicly funded education dating back to the to the early 17th century.

Publicly funded non-secular education didn't take off globally until the 1830s when everyone started copying Prussia.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#214

Post by ReflectedImage »

nativeit wrote: post #101
ReflectedImage wrote: post #73

Well assuming it's successful, there will be a large number of companies who's value will be reassessed as the token cost to replicate and run the business. Multi-million dollar companies will be reduced into multi thousand dollar companies. The CEOs will be replaced with teenagers in garages with their parent's credit cards. If it stalls, then China will undercut the whole AI market with cheap electricity and crash…

I can’t help but notice the “if it stalls” still assumes AI is successful, only that China beats the US. What if AI in general can’t do any of the things you mention?

I didn't mention anything? But I'll answer your question anyway.

Be it software, artwork, essays, graphic design or movie clips. There is a market for shipping cheap junk.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#215

Post by Eddy_Viscosity2 »

ReflectedImage wrote: post #73

Well assuming it's successful, there will be a large number of companies who's value will be reassessed as the token cost to replicate and run the business. Multi-million dollar companies will be reduced into multi thousand dollar companies. The CEOs will be replaced with teenagers in garages with their parent's credit cards. If it stalls, then China will undercut the whole AI market with cheap electricity and crash…

The AI companies will be bailed out by the government, resulting in inflation and lost purchasing power for regular people while investors keep all their gains. Classic wealth transfer.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#216

Post by fc417fc802 »

intended wrote: post #188
scoofy wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are describing altruistic gifts, not investment meant to generate a return. All this money is being deployed to try and turn a dime into a dollar. The biggest area I can see where money could be deployed into building something useful -- while generating a positive return -- is real estate development in cities with massive housing shortages. That's basically not allowed in the same cities. In large part, because…

Yes, that is what the money could have been used for. Altruistic or otherwise, this is what could have been done with that degree of money. Let’s pull on this thread though. This money is investment, in the hope that it grows into more than a trillion. Right now, this looks like it’s mostly going to displace workers. Some of it will address demand that cannot be addressed directly; you couldn’t afford an editor to lo…

> This tech is already devastating education across the globe, and has been built on outright theft of creative work by people who can expect nothing in return.

Not sure you realize how divorced from reality this statement appears (at least to me). These things make fantastic personal tutors for material up though the bachelor's level that are available around the clock and never tire of your inane questions. Currently google offers this for free on their home page without even needing to log in (at least from a residential ISP in the US).

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#217

Post by neonstatic »

goalieca wrote: post #178
neonstatic wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is showing the world how it's done. Check out how many nuclear reactors they have built in the last 10 years. Turns out having a government that plans long term and actually delivers what they said they would makes a huge difference.

Central planning in China is leading to many terrible problems from a collapsed real estate market to a debt that’s 300% of GDP and accelerating. Yes, they often deliver with focus and determination but this can work sideways too. FWIW, we have a similar problem in Canada where the federal government makes large investments and plans that backfire terribly.

That's a good argument. Centrally planned economy is not something I would support. Lots of negative examples from history. However, if the government is doing something (which all governments do, even in capitalist countries), then it would be nice if they were as efficient and reliable as the Chinese one.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#218

Post by watutalkinbout »

vintermann wrote: post #153
watutalkinbout wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe don't just 'inject' it. Maybe use it to increase outcomes.

Trying to micromanage how the money gets spent is how you get administrators.

I think you completely missed my point.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#219

Post by qsera »

conception wrote: post #86
qsera wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think we don't really know how to do many of these things you list even if we have infinite funds. There is a real chance that we will mess things even more if we have infinite funds...

Of course we do, we were doing them until about the mid-70s and then the ultra-wealthy figured out how to game the system and we got “Greed is Good” Geckos running things since.

What do you mean "of course we do"? Take education for example. Even in the 70s it was recognized as nothing better than something that create pencil pushers for the government and businesses..If we have more funds, we would just do more of the same...

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#220

Post by intended »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #216
intended wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that is what the money could have been used for. Altruistic or otherwise, this is what could have been done with that degree of money. Let’s pull on this thread though. This money is investment, in the hope that it grows into more than a trillion. Right now, this looks like it’s mostly going to displace workers. Some of it will address demand that cannot be addressed directly; you couldn’t afford an editor to lo…

> This tech is already devastating education across the globe, and has been built on outright theft of creative work by people who can expect nothing in return. Not sure you realize how divorced from reality this statement appears (at least to me). These things make fantastic personal tutors for material up though the bachelor's level that are available around the clock and never tire of your inane questions. Current…

Multiple educators and institutes are grappling with a plague of cheating. This is just a recent article : https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48708991

LLMs are found to erode skill

> https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.08872

LLMs have largely been a net negative on human education systems.

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