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AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#181

Post by LCRVYSB »

christiangenco wrote: post #76
overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

My understanding of injecting money in education is that it's proven to be extremely ineffective at improving outcomes. Schools just hire more administrators and build nicer gyms.

Injecting money into education is how the US got to the moon. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Education_Act)

And, school administrators are the opposite of what's needed in schools: the US needs better teacher pay and more teachers -- the ones who actually teach students.

Short of that however, yes, we get philanthropic failures such as Zuckerberg's attempt in silicon valley, and basically any attempt throughout Africa as examples. Throwing laptops at the problem doesn't work, neither does external donations that get funneled to the wrong places.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#182

Post by spwa4 »

piva00 wrote: post #180
spwa4 wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't change the fact that I have 2 daughters that are getting Math education from someone who is easily beat in math teaching quality by Google Gemini (I realize this is a specific strong point of Gemini, but still) And I do mean easily beat.

It doesn't change that fact, unfortunately it's a complex societal issue which presents quite heavily in your society, it requires decades of constant improvement to change anything. I don't think American society has the appetite nor patience for the actions needed for this kind of change.

Then the result will inevitably be AI education. AI cannot beat a good teacher, I know that. But the bar is getting raised a bit.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#183

Post by felix-the-cat »

rootusrootus wrote: post #103
felix-the-cat wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend who is a psychologist was telling me he thinks in another year or two insurance companies will insist people see an AI therapist first before being willing to pay for a real person.

LOL, the same AI that has landed companies in court defending themselves against wrongful death lawsuits for helping someone convince themselves suicide is the right answer, and even encouraging them? That AI? I am unclear that any insurance company is going to want a piece of that action anytime soon. What you've just told me is that psychologists, just like SWEs, are prone to thinking they know how business works b…

I'm not sure - like I said, it's just a friend's speculation, but when you consider how far AI has come in the past four years it's not hard to believe that it will simply continue to improve. It seems to already be having a significant impact on the whole software engineering field.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#184

Post by overgard »

expedition32 wrote: post #163
thelastgallon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is 100 manhattan projects. Lots and lots and lots of things that can be done. Reminds me of the quote "water water everywhere not a drop to drink" ==> Money, money everywhere, not a cent goes towards something remotely useful. 1) Could've added nifty features to roads (rf beacons?) and make it super easy to build autonomous vehicles. This would've solved so many problems, but most importantly 45,000 lives every…

It's private money. At least in my country the government isn't giving a single cent to AI outside of fundamental research projects. If companies want to bet all their money at roulette they are free to do so.

Look at what Elon Musk did to force index funds to buy SpaceX, which is money from places like retirement funds. When there's a bag to be held, it's not the oligarchs that are going to be holding it if they can help it.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#185

Post by bakies »

Freedumbs wrote: post #169
scoofy wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sold in May. I'm in the largest cash position (t-bills) I've ever had. I might be completely wrong. I just looked at the situation with the oil crisis, and without any obvious way to end it, I just figure, if there was every a more obvious "sell in May and go away" year, this is it. Maybe I miss out on some gains and buy back in December or January. Maybe I'll increase my Berkshire position. I don't know. But compa…

If we assume the play is the same as MAGA 1, the economic fallout happens post-2028. They'll keep inflating the bubble until MAGA cedes power. If that occurs.

COVID throws a wrench into any kind of analysis in that time period

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#186

Post by overgard »

vlian2088 wrote: post #74
overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

because that's not how this world works, and neither it should. most people figure that out in their early teens. and fyi, that 2t is not tax money, it's someone's money.

It is someone's money -- our money. Where do you think institutional investors get their money from?

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#187

Post by notnullorvoid »

jeffalyanak wrote: post #56
thelastgallon wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not this time. This time, we'll bail out them out because they are too big to fail and they need the money and assets. Next time we'll definitely get them. Pinky promise.

Even if one thinks we need to bail out the _companies_ to prevent more severe economic collapse, we could still arrest plenty of those who were in charge of these organizations.

As much as I'd like to see Sam and Dario fall from power, I don't think they should be the ones going to prison for this. Investors gave them money full well knowing there would be no return until they could steal from retail investors when the companies IPO.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#188

Post by intended »

scoofy wrote: post #159
thelastgallon wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is 100 manhattan projects. Lots and lots and lots of things that can be done. Reminds me of the quote "water water everywhere not a drop to drink" ==> Money, money everywhere, not a cent goes towards something remotely useful. 1) Could've added nifty features to roads (rf beacons?) and make it super easy to build autonomous vehicles. This would've solved so many problems, but most importantly 45,000 lives every…

You are describing altruistic gifts, not investment meant to generate a return. All this money is being deployed to try and turn a dime into a dollar. The biggest area I can see where money could be deployed into building something useful -- while generating a positive return -- is real estate development in cities with massive housing shortages. That's basically not allowed in the same cities. In large part, because…

Yes, that is what the money could have been used for. Altruistic or otherwise, this is what could have been done with that degree of money.

Let’s pull on this thread though. This money is investment, in the hope that it grows into more than a trillion.

Right now, this looks like it’s mostly going to displace workers. Some of it will address demand that cannot be addressed directly; you couldn’t afford an editor to look over your emails, now you can.

Much of it will wipe out intern level work across the entire economy, reducing the opportunities for people to learn and develop.

This tech is already devastating education across the globe, and has been built on outright theft of creative work by people who can expect nothing in return.

There was an article on HN how authors of self-help books are seeing a reduction in revenue from book sales, so this is wiping out multiple sources of revenue via automated harvesting of content.

What, precisely, is there to be happy about here? The convenience of writing more code, at the cost of everyone else’s happiness?

There is a LOT better, that could be done with $1 tn.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#189

Post by overgard »

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #89
overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

For context, the US alone spends annually a bit more than $2T on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. That money is widely dispersed both geographically and socioeconomically. $2T is not as much as one may think. I think we should let investors put their private money where they wish. Also, as an aside, the benefits of globalization on the balance far outweigh the drawbacks. Globalization has been the primary for…

You're equating on-going expenses with new investments, which is just not the same thing.

If "$2T is not as much as you think", and yet we could fund literally tens of thousands of more interesting projects with this money, then we are severely misusing capital in general. My point still stands that we're pouring more money into a technology than ever before, and yet it's a technology that's been a net NEGATIVE socially so far.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#190

Post by notnullorvoid »

segmondy wrote: post #87

no matter what, success or not the bubble is going to bust, it has inflated so much, the risk of it deflating slowly is a pipe dream. if AI doesn't turn into AGI, global financial crash. if AI turns into AGI and tons of people are out of work, global financial crash too.

It's going to be a lot worse if these companies IPO before the crash.

The US gov should dissolve Anthropic and OpenAI tomorrow. Failing that they should block them from going public.

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