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Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

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Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#81
post #11
post #7

On slide 6, they list the Mag7 stocks (not defined in a foreword), but on slide 8 they list the free cash flow (FCF) of a somewhat different set of companies. Why not stick to the Mag7 FCF only? It muddies the waters.

the FCF slide is for hyperscalers - which excludes TSLA, NVDA

Yes but the Mag 7 is the main focus, suddenly switching to a different set of companies is comparing apples to oranges. That slide belongs in an annex.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#82

I am invested in some of the companies that are downstream of the capital expenditures of Big Tech (e.g., COHR), so I have nothing to complain about. I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI, though. Assuming no magical AGI singularity, by the end of the day, they're still selling the same services, but the services have gotten more expensive f…

I know several non tech companies that use Gemini and NotebookLM heavily (banks, insurance, consulting).

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#83
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.

Many people who replied to you seem to have missed your joke. I appreciated it.

It is my curse.

Years ago, My daughter's science teacher said that school should teach a love of learning.

I replied 'I thought the point of school was to make productive worker units in society'

And while he explained to me why I was wrong I was thinking to myself 'great, now he thinks I'm a terrible person'

It seems I deadpan too effectively.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#84
Not mentioned in the comments but all those companies are taking significant debt and even issuing new shares.

One major part of the investment thesis in these companies were their constant stock buy backs. Now their gargantuan Capex that sees no end but acceleration is back at diluting investors.

I think the companies will keep doing fine, but the financial outlooks are no longer as rosy.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#85
post #39
post #33

Nothing wrong, necessarily, but Tesla doesn’t belong to that seven they never have.

What TSLA lacks in cashflow, they more than make-up in TAM. Make-up as in create out of thin air. We'll have self driving cars in a few months, robots, semi-trucks, etc., etc.

Maybe they'll buy a failing AI company and update their grift portfolio.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#86

I am invested in some of the companies that are downstream of the capital expenditures of Big Tech (e.g., COHR), so I have nothing to complain about. I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI, though. Assuming no magical AGI singularity, by the end of the day, they're still selling the same services, but the services have gotten more expensive f…

The investment thesis is a torrent of cash arriving to index funds and retirement target date funds has to go somewhere.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#87
post #20

I like that the invisible hand of market is slapping the Mag-7 for capex which is the only way to discipline them. Investors are waking up to say: hey, you are spending all your profits on data-centers, where is the return for me ? But, it surprises me that there are vast pools of capital which we collectively call the "market" that makes these calculations, or maybe a simpler causal explanation is the missing stock…

Why is Apple included though?

My perception is that the market lumps companies together into sectors whether they have similar business models or not. When one is punished, other associated firms tend to be, too. You see this in any industry (not as a guaranteed rule, but in general).

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#88
post #39
post #33

Nothing wrong, necessarily, but Tesla doesn’t belong to that seven they never have.

What TSLA lacks in cashflow, they more than make-up in TAM. Make-up as in create out of thin air. We'll have self driving cars in a few months, robots, semi-trucks, etc., etc.

Elon is missing the bigger TAM here. Once they've created a time machine, they can not only sell all these things backwards and forwards in time, they can also start making industrialization come way earlier, which will lead to exponentially turbo charged growth. Plus importing future designs into the now.

It makes sense to focus all effort into building a time machine.

Re: Mag 7 starting to underperform [pdf]

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market runs on memes, hype and fraud. Fundamentals haven’t mattered for a long time.

I guess Google’s Q1 earnings of $62 billion were just hype.

Yes, earnings are essentially hype/BS.

Focus on cash/cashflow.

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