51–60 of 169 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.
If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless. I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not based on the evidence of how they allocate capital. Meta wasted $80B on the Metaverse, for example. Apollo allocates capital as their day job. Mag7 allocates by vibes. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/mark-z... https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/19/technology/mark-zuckerber... | https://archive.today/iEGAj
> Apollo allocates capital as their day job. Mag7 allocates by vibes Lol what in the world? Is running a trillion dollar corporation anything other than allocating capital? You can argue that Meta made a poor capital allocation decision with VR and perhaps continues to do so with AI.
I am invested in some of the companies that are downstream of the capital expenditures of Big Tech (e.g., COHR), so I have nothing to complain about. I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI, though. Assuming no magical AGI singularity, by the end of the day, they're still selling the same services, but the services have gotten more expensive f…
`I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI` Google is basically Nvdia (TPUs), Tesla (Waymo Self-Driving), Hyperscaler, Netflix (YouTube) and a massive VC (Anthropic, Databricks, SpaceX, etc.) all rolled into one. Their valuation isn't really a 2x'ing so much as a reversion from halving.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.
Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.
6 months ago when Mag7 was overperforming everyone was worried about it being too high a fraction of the S&P500.
Page 25 "The number of data centers in the US" gives an interesting insight as to the magnitude of the data center boom. 60% more data centers are being planned or are under construction. This might actually be underselling it in dollar amount, as I believe the average data center size under construction is larger than the average data center already constructed.
Page 27 "Cyclically adjusted P/E ratio near all-time highs" is certainly concerning and points to a near term correction.
-signed a bitter somebody that had to buy a new SD card for my camera last week.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.
Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform. Every time.
I am invested in some of the companies that are downstream of the capital expenditures of Big Tech (e.g., COHR), so I have nothing to complain about. I am really struggling to see what's the investment thesis behind Google valuation increasing 2x in response to AI, though. Assuming no magical AGI singularity, by the end of the day, they're still selling the same services, but the services have gotten more expensive f…