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AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#141

Post by tasuki »

overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

> but if you want to make a REAL difference as an entrepreneur why not look at parts of the country that are struggling

Why not parts of the world even? There are more countries than "the country". Some of us here aren't even from "the country".

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#142

Post by thelastgallon »

overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

This is 100 manhattan projects. Lots and lots and lots of things that can be done. Reminds me of the quote "water water everywhere not a drop to drink" ==> Money, money everywhere, not a cent goes towards something remotely useful.

1) Could've added nifty features to roads (rf beacons?) and make it super easy to build autonomous vehicles. This would've solved so many problems, but most importantly 45,000 lives every year and millions of accidents.

2) Could've given the money to farmers who are getting ethanol subsidies today to add panels, supply tons of power to the grid, creating permanent income to the farmers instead of handouts every year.

3) Could've built many Universities permanently free which is feasible with an endowment that large.

4) Could've built walking/biking infrastructure in most cities, which would help reduce healthcare expenses. Most of the expenses today are lifestyle/metabolic diseases.

5) Could've switched the entire country to clean energy, exporting ALL of the oil and create a sovereign wealth fund.

6) Could've built a city for homeless people with homes, excess energy production (solar) providing the function of a UBI, a massive hospital with health and mental health facilities, de-addiction centers. New city in the middle of nowhere where land is dirt cheap. Army corps of engineers could execute this.

7) Rehabilitate prison (not like George Carlins suggestion of Kansas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkMrFIv_QHk), but more like nordic countries.

8) Build solar over all the interstates.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#143

Post by dntrkv »

rayiner wrote: post #98
saulpw wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yes, you have to spend the money wisely. How could we construct a system so that we have 2x as many teachers (thereby halving the classroom size)? That would have a lot of good second-order effects beyond test scores.

So why has per-capita student spending doubled since 1990 (adjusted for inflation) without any increase in test scores? Why haven’t we been spending the money wisely? Student to teacher ratios have continuously decreased and are about half of what they were in 1960. Data on the results is mixed: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/class-size-what-research-...

The funding system is broken, not the actual act of funding.

We aren't incentivizing meaningful work, we are incentivizing diplomas.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#144

Post by da-x »

ozgrakkurt wrote: post #9
AmazingEveryDay wrote: post #2

Is there any comprehensive list of historical warnings from central bankers?

I just checked 2007 and 1999 reports [1] a a bit and doesn't seem like they made such obvious warnings at those times. I don't know much about economy and I just did some ctrl + f skimming, but this new 2026 warning is obviously more clear to me. [1] https://www.bis.org/annualeconomicreports/index.htm?annualec...

You're on the spot, it can certainly be a self-defeating prophecy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#145

Post by piva00 »

christiangenco wrote: post #76
overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

My understanding of injecting money in education is that it's proven to be extremely ineffective at improving outcomes. Schools just hire more administrators and build nicer gyms.

Investment in education is one of the best ROI a society can have. Quite surprising that in the USA this relationship has been eroded by schools spending in sports and admin, in most other developed countries it's a quite direct relationship between more investments -> better educational outcomes.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#146

Post by surgical_fire »

samrus wrote: post #12
mountainriver wrote: post #4

Meanwhile AI has gotten so good it can just about one shot a SaaS app. I’m not worried about it…

Yeah but the investments arent aiming for churning out SaaS apps. Its to automate large swathes of intellectual labour. Of which only SWE has been cracked yet. There is a question mark as to if the others will crack. If they arent then these investments will collapse from speculation down to reality. That possibility is what is being discussed here As to whether that will happen, I think that risk is real. Because cl…

> Of which only SWE has been cracked yet.

When did that happen?

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#147

Post by simianwords »

neonstatic wrote: post #92
overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

China is showing the world how it's done. Check out how many nuclear reactors they have built in the last 10 years. Turns out having a government that plans long term and actually delivers what they said they would makes a huge difference.

China glazing is strange. I think they are a cool country but they would have killed to be in the forefront in the AI race. There’s something obviously right that America is doing.

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#148

Post by simianwords »

BenFranklin100 wrote: post #89
overgard wrote: post #58

I'm not usually for arguments of "this money could have been better spent elsewhere", but here's a thought experiment. Lets say instead of injecting $2 trillion and counting into a few AI companies, we instead injected $2 trillion dollars into things like infrastructure (real infrastructure, not GPU warehouses), education, helping out communities ravaged by globalization (I doubt most people on Hacker News venture ou…

For context, the US alone spends annually a bit more than $2T on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. That money is widely dispersed both geographically and socioeconomically. $2T is not as much as one may think. I think we should let investors put their private money where they wish. Also, as an aside, the benefits of globalization on the balance far outweigh the drawbacks. Globalization has been the primary for…

You are comparing flow with a static amount. 2 trillion is the market cap of AI companies right?

Re: AI boom risks global financial crash, warn central bankers

#150

Post by vintermann »

NamlchakKhandro wrote: post #132
rayiner wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people in charge of the schools don’t seem to think it’s unnecessary overhead?

of course their luxury SUVs wouldn't think it's an unnecessary overhead. Come on guy, those expense accounts aren't going to pay for themselves... chop chop... get to it.

Why would they be any better than the people distributing the money to them in the first place? The students working hard at "providing the good educational outcomes", by this economy's standards, are suckers.
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