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U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

washingtonpost.com

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Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#851

Post by somenameforme »

ericmay wrote: post #823
oytis wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far it's only US doing this. I don't think it's in anyone else's interest to limit development of open source models or chips. Nvidia has secured a leading position in GPU market by being the best overall, but if US continues to mess up with the export, that changes the calculation and surely we'll see the alternatives

Any country that developed sufficiently advanced models will pursue the same path. The EU as a regulatory body would pursue the same path, as will/is China. It’s rather straightforward to think through. If China (they’re practically the only competitor) built a sufficiently advanced AI system would they allow it to propagate on the free market? Of course not. The fact of the matter is that they are behind, even if it…

This isn't how things typically work. For instance the US is increasingly adversarial towards China yet China continues to largely power the US economy both through manufacturing and market access, which makes up an increasingly large share of all revenue for many US companies. Why? Because that position as a dependency is not only directly economically beneficial to themselves, but also provides leverage which can be utilized in extreme circumstances.

This isn't really going to achieve much besides incentivizing the growth of non-US models and minimizing market access for US-based models. I was expecting the US government to try to ban foreign models, which is also a self-own but orders of magnitude less than this. All this will do is greatly diminish the influence of the US in the future, and minimize the benefits they might reap from a global LLM explosion. It'd be like if 30 years ago, China decided that their manufacturing could only be used by white-listed individuals. Their economy and influence wouldn't be even a fraction of what it is today.

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#853

Post by d5lt5 »

ericmay wrote: post #823
oytis wrote: post #693

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So far it's only US doing this. I don't think it's in anyone else's interest to limit development of open source models or chips. Nvidia has secured a leading position in GPU market by being the best overall, but if US continues to mess up with the export, that changes the calculation and surely we'll see the alternatives

Any country that developed sufficiently advanced models will pursue the same path. The EU as a regulatory body would pursue the same path, as will/is China. It’s rather straightforward to think through. If China (they’re practically the only competitor) built a sufficiently advanced AI system would they allow it to propagate on the free market? Of course not. The fact of the matter is that they are behind, even if it…

I think you view this situation from the US point of view and assume that China has the same guiding principles and values in their foreign policy, for which it doesn't. They might do what you said, of course. But they very well might also treat LLMs as another goodwill investment like the Belt and Road Initiative (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative) and export the capability to partner countries, for example, in Africa, to strengthen relationships.

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#854

Post by sooheon »

gwerbin wrote: post #828
itemize123 wrote: post #825

Earlier quoted context omitted.

literally the opposite of regulatory capture - it spells trouble for specifically openai and anthropic mostly

That's often how regulatory capture works. It seems bad for the incumbents, but it's worse for any future competitor. As long as the cost of complying with the regulation is less than your expected loss from competition entering the market, then it's net positive for the incumbent.

I think this is plain old regulation, not regulatory capture. For it to be the latter we'd need evidence than it was the incumbents who designed this oversight which they then asked the white house to rubber stamp.

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#855

Post by sooheon »

mediaman wrote: post #628
foota wrote: post #615

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? This is the opposite of regulatory capture. Neither anthropic nor openai are getting to choose what happens with their models.

Regulatory capture doesn't necessarily mean the regulated get to decide what the regulators do in precise steps. It can simply mean they support and exist within a regulatory regime that greatly benefits the regulated. In fact, you generally don't want them directly telling the regulators what to do. Instead, the regulators make complex, costly rules that only large establishment players can follow. The regulators lo…

That's just vanilla regulation. Yes it tends to create market inefficiencies, by definition. Capture entails industry corrupting and directing regulatory bodies.

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#856

Post by fragmede »

andsoitis wrote: post #816
jmward01 wrote: post #604

This is regulatory capture in action. This will make it hard/impossible for new vendors to come into the market and only established companies will get to play, and charge, for LLMs. What does this mean for open source? Will it become illegal to download weights? What about train your own? Are we heading to a world where GPU use is regulated to ensure that illegal LLMs aren't being processed on your machine? More bro…

> This will make it hard/impossible for new vendors to come into the market and only established companies will get to play, and charge, for LLMs. I don't understand how you leap from "US govt. decides who gets to use GPT-5" to "limit new vendors from competing with OpenAI". Can you walk me through the logic?

> the U.S. government would initially approve who gets access to its latest new release while AI companies and the administration work out a longer-term plan for regulation on the sector.

So you're a new vendor with a GPT-5.6 or Mythos class model. How do you suppose the regulations are going to work? First you need to get on the list of companies that are allowed to release models, and then you need to have a whole system for limiting access. Both are going to be hugely expensive, on top of training new models already being insanely expensive to begin with.

Thus, it's not a legal limit, but a real practical limit because it's too expensive. If only OpenAI and Anthropic and Google can afford to jump through the hoops, they've effectively gotten to "limit new vendors from competing with OpenAI".

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#857

Post by antonvs »

jmward01 wrote: post #604

This is regulatory capture in action. This will make it hard/impossible for new vendors to come into the market and only established companies will get to play, and charge, for LLMs. What does this mean for open source? Will it become illegal to download weights? What about train your own? Are we heading to a world where GPU use is regulated to ensure that illegal LLMs aren't being processed on your machine? More bro…

> This is regulatory capture in action.

With the twist that it will end up involving payments that directly benefit Trump, following the Mafia business model that he learned in the construction industry and that he's brought to the White House.

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#858

Post by eru »

celdon25 wrote: post #810
eru wrote: post #804

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does owning some bitcoins let you run a powerful LLM?

I take it you've never known anyone who has tried to run even a small consumer AI company. Do you think that they all independently come up with the same censorship rules, despite no law mandating them? Why do you think that is? That they are just that well-thought out that everyone happens to agree with that same intersecting boundary?

For the sake of argument, let's grant that there's some conspiracy that makes them all have the same rules. And conspiracy in a loose sense: perhaps it's the government dictating the rules.

I still don't understand how buying bitcoin lets me route around that.

Even gold coins buried in my garden won't get you access to Fable.

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#859

Post by andsoitis »

fragmede wrote: post #856
andsoitis wrote: post #816

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will make it hard/impossible for new vendors to come into the market and only established companies will get to play, and charge, for LLMs. I don't understand how you leap from "US govt. decides who gets to use GPT-5" to "limit new vendors from competing with OpenAI". Can you walk me through the logic?

> the U.S. government would initially approve who gets access to its latest new release while AI companies and the administration work out a longer-term plan for regulation on the sector. So you're a new vendor with a GPT-5.6 or Mythos class model. How do you suppose the regulations are going to work? First you need to get on the list of companies that are allowed to release models, and then you need to have a whole…

> So you're a new vendor with a GPT-5.6 or Mythos class model. How do you suppose the regulations are going to work? First you need to get on the list of companies that are allowed to release models, and then you need to have a whole system for limiting access. Both are going to be hugely expensive, on top of training new models already being insanely expensive to begin with.

So your thesis is that someone has the resources to create a model at the level of Mythos or GPT 5.6 but bot have the resources to jump through the concomitant legal requirements?

Surely that’s unlikely?

Re: U.S. government will decide who gets to use GPT-5.6

#860

Post by bruce511 »

tw1984 wrote: post #834
glaslong wrote: post #783

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Warm up your VPN to zAI for the eventual banned GLM-6 I guess

what make you believe that the Chinese gov is going to allow GLM-6 to be made publicly available?

Let me frame it like this;

If GLM-6 is made publicly available[1], will that change your predictions of how they will behave in the future, or your understanding of their motivations in the present?

[1] I am certainly no expert of Chinese AI policy, but I fear you are attributing US values and goals to the Chinese govt.

From where I stand, they appear to be very different though. China is seeking to increase influence, whereas the US (seems to be) seeking to become more insular. China is actively persuing the world-leader role, while the US dismantles soft-power tools like USaid, and alienates countries pursuing obviously flawed military excursions.

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