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OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#61

Post by stymaar »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #35
cmiles8 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.

> but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked What are you basing this on? Both are currently doing rounds/tenders that are placing without problems. The media treats these two differently, as do financial influencers. But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.

> But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.

The finance market and the market for these products are two different things. Anthropic has definitely been stealing market share to OpenAI in the past few month on many segments (be it enterprise or even consumers).

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#62

Post by kirubakaran »

kurthr wrote: post #57
androiddrew wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ummm probably not. Lock ups are going to dump far more stock into the market.

But they are going to coincide lockups with the release of additional stock float from 5% up to 20% of the total "valuation" with a 3x QQQ multiplier so that stock indexes will treat them as 60% float even though 2/3rds of those shares are unavailable. Thus they guarantee that even more shares must be bought by tracking ETFs and institutional buyers. Everybody (that already owns pre-IPO shares) wins!

But that's not a secret, and therefore already priced in, right?

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#63

Post by HerbManic »

cdrnsf wrote: post #6

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges. SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.

Launched in the same way they launch Starship, full of ambition, promising a bit too much, but might explode at any moment. Either way it will be a spectacular show regardless of what happen.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#64

Post by 3eb7988a1663 »

tristanj wrote: post #59
wmf wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good news: GPT-5.6 has been export restricted.

This is patently false, don't spread rumors. Voluntarily delaying release at the request of the government is not the same as imposing export controls.

I hesitate to call anything "voluntary" when a competitor company was declared a domestic supply chain risk for refusing to do everything the administration requested.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#65

Post by treis »

cmiles8 wrote: post #26
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.

The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.

ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#67

Post by outside1234 »

fragmede wrote: post #52
sharadov wrote: post #29

I was really hoping that they Ipoed this year, so we can see their stock shoot up and down in flames, and we're really done with them and Sam Altman, once and for all.

While spcx has room to go up or down from where it is today, the reality is it that didn't drop like a rock on IPO day, so wall street bets vibes-based online "analysis" investing is only good for paper money.

The investment bankers were in there manipulating, but that's over, and gravity is here.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#68

Post by arppacket »

cmiles8 wrote: post #22

The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there. The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.

I doubt that anyone at OpenAI would let their payday decrease. If anything, they got assurances that everyone would keep the bubble going until 2028 no matter what.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#70

Post by cmiles8 »

treis wrote: post #65
cmiles8 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.

ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.

The advertising angle is significantly overrated. Theres only so many ad dollars to go around and so every dollar they make they have to take from so other player like Google. With Google having decent AI search now for free OpenAI is already well behind here.
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