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OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#21

Post by JumpCrisscross »

dminik wrote: post #14

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges. Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?

> if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about

Not really. Plenty of solid companies have to wring their hands around IPO timing based on market conditions. Sometimes, this is due to valuation multiples. Sometimes it's due to fads, e.g. investors preferring capital-structure efficiency versus low leverage.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#22

Post by cmiles8 »

The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there.

The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#23

Post by JumpCrisscross »

simianwords wrote: post #7
therobots927 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,0…

1. they didn't cancel their IPO and they were deliberate about having the option to time their IPO 2. he has tried over and over again to predict the bubble and peak [1] [2] [3] 3. that OpenAI is filing for an IPO next year is no vindication of Ed's claim when he specifically predicted the opposite (as I showed in the above comment) 4. OpenAI filing for an IPO next year has no bearing on its fundamentals 5. on Datace…

> Edit: the quality of discussion in this website is annoying sometimes.get downvoted for good faith discussion

Ignore it and don't do this: "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#24

Post by JumpCrisscross »

cmiles8 wrote: post #22

The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there. The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.

> window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there

Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#26

Post by cmiles8 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #24
cmiles8 wrote: post #22

The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there. The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.

> window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.

The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#27

Post by lovich »

jrflowers wrote: post #13
simianwords wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't even know what you are trying to say, I opened your link > We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best. So... OpenAI has specifically said that they have not decided on the timing and it may be a while.…

>it may be a while Or sooner. It says sooner or later. It only means “later” if you don’t read the “sooner” part. Choosing to read selectively isn’t One Weird Trick To Own A Blogger. “This post about submitting a draft S1 to the SEC is proof that they don’t want to go public” lmao

> Choosing to read selectively isn’t One Weird Trick To Own A Blogger.

I mean it’s pretty obvious that the pro AI as an industry wide replacement people think it is One Weird Trick. I’ve still yet to see any of them articulate how they are going to reach profitability without resorting to the meme of projecting that their baby has doubled size in 6 months so is projected to reach 10.5 trillion pounds by the age of 10.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#28

Post by lovich »

jsnell wrote: post #18
therobots927 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money. Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.

> Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). They did not.

Oh? They’re profitable now? Or anywhere close to it?
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