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OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#11

Post by JumpCrisscross »

therobots927 wrote: post #5
simianwords wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... you think this is vindicating Ed Zitron? The dude is on a spree claiming the bubble will burst any time soon [1]. In fact Ed Zitron predicted that OpenAI will IPO sooner and not later [2]! This whole post is yet again another thing that he got wrong. [1] https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ed+zitron+bubbl... [2] https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-cfo-news > It's clear that both OpenAI and Anthropic are r…

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,0…

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials

There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility.

> Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors?

If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#12

Post by [deleted] »

simianwords wrote: post #7
therobots927 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,0…

1. they didn't cancel their IPO and they were deliberate about having the option to time their IPO 2. he has tried over and over again to predict the bubble and peak [1] [2] [3] 3. that OpenAI is filing for an IPO next year is no vindication of Ed's claim when he specifically predicted the opposite (as I showed in the above comment) 4. OpenAI filing for an IPO next year has no bearing on its fundamentals 5. on Datace…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#13

Post by jrflowers »

simianwords wrote: post #10
jrflowers wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like that people will post stuff like “Ed Zitron is always wrong! Look at this wrong claim he made!” and then link to him not making that claim at all. “Rushing toward a public offering so that their CEOs can cash out” is not a prediction of a specific time to IPO, and is supported by OpenAI’s own public statement two months after that was published https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/

I don't even know what you are trying to say, I opened your link > We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. But it’s a complicated set of tradeoffs and this gives us the option to go public sooner if that ends up being best. So... OpenAI has specifically said that they have not decided on the timing and it may be a while.…

>it may be a while

Or sooner. It says sooner or later. It only means “later” if you don’t read the “sooner” part. Choosing to read selectively isn’t One Weird Trick To Own A Blogger. “This post about submitting a draft S1 to the SEC is proof that they don’t want to go public” lmao

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#14

Post by dminik »

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges.

Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#15

Post by therobots927 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11
therobots927 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,0…

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money.

Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference).

Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#16

Post by JumpCrisscross »

therobots927 wrote: post #15
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money. Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.

> SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money

What? How? SpaceX loses oodles of money. It's trading above its IPO, and just filled an oversubscribed bond deal.

> Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious

Zitron has a faithful following. He isn't a broadly-influential analyst.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#17

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11
therobots927 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,0…

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

In what way is SpaceX's volatility an obvious cause? It would be one thing if SpaceX was down from its IPO price, but it's not, it's just down from a post-IPO peak. To me this has all the hallmarks of a backfilled rationalization.

> OpenAI’s advisers presented company executives with the option of waiting until 2027 to go public with a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the targeted valuation for a quicker I.P.O. Mr. Altman, said one person in contact with him on the topic, responded that any change to the trillion-dollar valuation was a nonstarter.

I really don't know how to read this and reach any conclusion other than, OpenAI leadership won't accept what financial analysts consider to be a rational valuation of its stock.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#18

Post by jsnell »

therobots927 wrote: post #15
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

SpaceX demonstrated that the public markets have a limited tolerance for a multi-trillion dollar company that doesn’t make any money. Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference). Put these two together and I think the conclusion is pretty obvious.

> Ed’s leaks demonstrated that OAI doesn’t make money (even on inference).

They did not.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#19

Post by JumpCrisscross »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #17
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

In what way is SpaceX's volatility an obvious cause? It would be one thing if SpaceX was down from its IPO price, but it's not, it's just down from a post-IPO peak. To me this has all the hallmarks of a backfilled rationalization. > OpenAI’s advisers presented company executives with the option of waiting until 2027 to go public with a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the targeted valuation for a quicker I.P.O. Mr. Al…

> In what way is SpaceX's volatility an obvious cause?

Let me amend: it's a more-obvious cause given it's pertinent new information in a way Zitron partially leaking financials many institutional investors have already seen is not.

> don't know how to read this and reach any conclusion other than, OpenAI leadership won't accept what financial analysts consider to be a rational valuation of its stock

Neither did SpaceX and, as you say, it's trading above its IPO price and placing tens of billions of dollars of debt.

I think Zitron's analysis was on the balance good, though it didn't say a lot of what folks on here seem to have taken away (e.g., about OpenAI's inference being marginally unprofitable). It seems he's got a bit of a cult of personality around him, which makes me inherently sceptical. But it's a pretty ridiculous reach to claim OpenAI had to delay its IPO because of him versus the much-more visible and talked about thing.

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