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OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

nytimes.com

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Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#51

Post by surgical_fire »

reilly3000 wrote: post #44
wiiww wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree but Anthropic momentum is fading too. Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

How is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal ?

That is a good marketing headline, but for it to work the model has to become available again in a reasonable timeframe.

Otherwise people try other cheaper models, and they find out those models work perfectly for what they need.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#52

Post by fragmede »

sharadov wrote: post #29

I was really hoping that they Ipoed this year, so we can see their stock shoot up and down in flames, and we're really done with them and Sam Altman, once and for all.

While spcx has room to go up or down from where it is today, the reality is it that didn't drop like a rock on IPO day, so wall street bets vibes-based online "analysis" investing is only good for paper money.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#53

Post by dofm »

CodingJeebus wrote: post #37
simianwords wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... you think this is vindicating Ed Zitron? The dude is on a spree claiming the bubble will burst any time soon [1]. In fact Ed Zitron predicted that OpenAI will IPO sooner and not later [2]! This whole post is yet again another thing that he got wrong. [1] https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ed+zitron+bubbl... [2] https://www.wheresyoured.at/openai-cfo-news > It's clear that both OpenAI and Anthropic are r…

OpenAI did confidentially file their S-1, which costs a ton of money to put together for the bankers and regulators to review. They did test the market and it looks like either the banks or people directly around Altman told him not to move forward. That doesn't mean Zitron was wrong about OpenAI IPOing. They took steps in that direction and then decided not to move forward. That's not his fault. As far as the bubble…

FWIW I think there's a "Y2K never happened" future here, where the bubble never bursts (in the sense of some insane market valuation proving to be lunatic) but everyone does what they can to make sure it doesn't burst on them, and they pull back and the bubble just deflates.

Take for example the action on SPACs that made the "SPAC everything" era end.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#54

Post by wiiww »

reilly3000 wrote: post #44
wiiww wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree but Anthropic momentum is fading too. Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

How is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal ?

Expected cash flows, growth and risk.

Go ahead and incorporate that in those 3 variables... lets see what you know before I bother replying.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#55

Post by dofm »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #11
therobots927 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials is not a coincidence and yes it does vindicate him. He’s not shorting the market or calling a top. He’s saying that the bubble will pop because the underlying business model is and always will have a NEGATIVE ROI. Unless you’re speculating on semiconductor stocks the difference is irrelevant. Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,0…

> OAI canceling an IPO this year a week after he released their dogshit financials There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this. The obvious one, instead, is SpaceX's volatility. > Do me a favor and tell me how much of the 1,000,000,000,000 spent / committed to a datacenter buildout has been returned to shareholders / investors? If Anthropic also delays its IPO, you'll have a point.

> There is zero evidence of any causal link between him and this.

How would there be? He's a blogger and a youtuber, they are a private company with secretive financials, bankers involved in pre-IPO work don't talk openly. Nobody is going to say "we only decided not to do this because of a youtuber" because that would make them look like the ill-informed, over-eager idiots they've been to let this nonsense get this far.

Why would there be any concrete evidence it was down to him specifically, and not, say, dozens of finance people saying "what the *fuck* is that marketing budget about — that's so large it looks like something's been hidden in it" after reading about it from him and the FT and everyone else who was involved.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#56

Post by dofm »

jsnell wrote: post #42
lovich wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh? They’re profitable now? Or anywhere close to it?

No, but the GP wasn't satisfied with that, and had to put in a snide "even on inference" parenthetical. The leaks showed inference having positive margins. The Zitronites will say that the data is fraudulent, and OpenAI must have classified some of their inference as marketing, or R&D, or some other wacky theory of the week. But the actual data does not show that. It is made up. If you want to cherry-pick the worst p…

> The leaks showed inference having positive margins.

They don't. They show that OpenAI need to people to draw that conclusion, because of course they do.

> The Zitronites will say that the data is fraudulent, and OpenAI must have classified some of their inference as marketing, or R&D, or some other wacky theory of the week. But the actual data does not show that.

It doesn't?

It shows a marketing budget so absolutely mahoosive that it's almost completely implausible, which does make you think — have a percentage of marketing-driven free plan tokens been hidden in there? If not, what the hell is in there? Because it's an insane figure for a company that has benefited from a level of word of mouth that makes "ChatGPT" broadly synonymous with "AI".

Fraudulent is a big claim, of course. I didn't say it.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#57

Post by kurthr »

androiddrew wrote: post #49
winfredJa wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes, in few weeks.unfortunately the stock will be back from this slump

Ummm probably not. Lock ups are going to dump far more stock into the market.

But they are going to coincide lockups with the release of additional stock float from 5% up to 20% of the total "valuation" with a 3x QQQ multiplier so that stock indexes will treat them as 60% float even though 2/3rds of those shares are unavailable. Thus they guarantee that even more shares must be bought by tracking ETFs and institutional buyers. Everybody (that already owns pre-IPO shares) wins!

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#58

Post by jazzyjackson »

reilly3000 wrote: post #44
wiiww wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree but Anthropic momentum is fading too. Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

How is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal ?

How do you grow your business when your flagship product is illegal?

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#59

Post by tristanj »

wmf wrote: post #25
koolala wrote: post #20

Maybe they want a Mythos level model first.

Good news: GPT-5.6 has been export restricted.

This is patently false, don't spread rumors. Voluntarily delaying release at the request of the government is not the same as imposing export controls.

Re: OpenAI leans toward waiting until next year for IPO

#60

Post by opinion-is-bad »

echelon wrote: post #43
cdrnsf wrote: post #6

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges. SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.

Is it still being prematurely included in the major index funds?

Only the Nasdaq, which is an intentionally aggressive index. The S&P rejected all proposals.
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