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Alan Greenspan has died

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Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#241
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prices should get cheaper. Does that include the price of labour? Are you okay with your salary going down? Because the historical record shows that's what happens during deflationary periods: producers of good/services see the price that they can sell things for goes down, and so they insist on their suppliers and inputs—including labour input—reduce their prices as well.

Why would it go down? The person is becoming more productive? Do employees at Apple salaries go down because the iPhone they're working on is worth less every year? Again, tie it to things that decrease in price over time.

Let us say a farmer had taken out a mortgage in 1928, and let us say his mortgage payment was US$20 (equivalent of 1 oz. of gold). In May 1929 he would have had to have sold 114 pounds of cotton to earn $20 (or 18 bushels of wheat, 23 of corn, 44 of oats). By May 1932 he would have had to sold 369 pounds of cotton (or 38 bushels of wheat, …):

* https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/030439...

* https://econbrowser.com/archives/2012/02/why_not_abolish

If he had 4 farm hands and paid each $5 (total $20), that's a lot more crops that need to be sold to cover payroll; or he could cut staff.

And it would have been the same for selling any good or service: to pay whatever debts you had (mortgage, car/business/student loans) you would have to work more to earn the same amount of money. Or a company that makes widgets needing to pay the same wages: sell more widgets to cover payroll, or reduce payroll (per head, or total heads).

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which saw 40% increase in median real wages over 30 years. [1] Which occurred in spite of the Gold Standard, rather than because of it: * https://econbrowser.com/archives/2012/09/the_gold_standa_1 There were major periods of instability during that period. Growth that is unlikely to be repeated: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_American_... > Prices are 475%* what they were 50 years ago, far exc…

> And it would have been the same for selling any good or service: to pay whatever debts you had (mortgage, car/business/student loans) you would have to work more to earn the same amount of money. Is that good? That’s not apples to apples. Deflation (or at least reduced inflation) means reduced interest rates.

> Deflation (or at least reduced inflation) means reduced interest rates.

If it was "just" a slow down, maybe interest rates were lower, but during times of uncertainly lending is risky and so higher return is asked for that risk.

The historical records shows that interest rates spiked during major economic events (of which there were more off, more often, and tended to last longer):

* https://econbrowser.com/archives/2012/02/why_not_abolish

* https://econbrowser.com/archives/2012/09/the_gold_standa_1

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#243
post #5

I'm not a gold bug but Alan was a proponent of the gold standard. He wrote about how the gold standard created responsible spending and more equality in the world: https://ritholtz.com/2008/11/gold-and-economic-freedom-by-al... The world we are in now, especially in the US, is one where there is near unlimited government credit but it is, according to many, papering over deep structural problems. At some point, these…

Margaret Thatcher said "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."

I feel like the problem that Greenspan, Bernanke, and friends have found is that the problem with capitalism is that you never run out of the government's money.

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Deflation causes debt to become more expensive. Inflation causes your money to become worth less. There's a simple solution to debt becoming more expensive, but no practical solution to you getting a pay-cut every year, especially when a sizable chunk of people don't even realize they're getting a pay-cut and don't want to be unthankful for a "raise." That issue alone already causally explains much of the rise i…

You're engaging in a pretty common fallacy by taking the contemporary standard, in a world full of wild inflation and funny money, retroactively applying it backwards, seeing [correctly] that it wouldn't work, and thus concluding that funny money is needed. But you need to consider the impacts of the funny money itself. One fundamental difference is that inflationary systems incentivize the hoarding of 'things', like…

> But in stable or deflationary systems there's no inflation to hide from and the price of 'things' is stable or can even decrease over time, so there's no longer a hoarding incentivization for 'things.'

Here's how things worked in the early 20th century: Let us say a farmer had taken out a mortgage in 1928, and let us say his mortgage payment was US$20 (equivalent of 1 oz. of gold). In May 1929 he would have had to have sold 114 pounds of cotton to earn $20 (or 18 bushels of wheat, 23 of corn, 44 of oats). By May 1932 he would have had to sold 369 pounds of cotton (or 38 bushels of wheat, …):

* https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/030439...

* https://econbrowser.com/archives/2012/02/why_not_abolish

If he had 4 farm hands and paid each $5 (total $20), that's a lot more crops that need to be sold to cover payroll.

And it would have been the same for selling any good or service: a company that makes widgets needing to pay the same wages: sell more widgets to cover payroll, or reduce payroll (per head, or total heads).

Falling prices may seem good from a buyer/consumer point of view, but there's also the seller/supplier side of the equation.

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One fundamental difference is that inflationary systems incentivize the hoarding of 'things', like housing, as a means of escaping inflation. This is because the price of 'things' will always increase with inflation. But in stable or deflationary systems there's no inflation to hide from and the price of 'things' is stable or can even decrease over time, so there's no longer a hoarding incentivization for 'things.'…

> By definition, deflation is people choosing not to contribute to production obtaining increasing returns on doing and risking absolutely nothing Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You…

> Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You can also use those gains in your spending power to achieve even greater things. It's up to the person.

It is, indeed up to the person. But if you offer billionaires risk free gains from turning their billions into cash and burying it in the ground (quite literally at the expense of everyone else having to work harder to make up for it), even the ones that are willing to invest or lend need to extract more out of the poor to make it worth their while.

Again, when it's tautological the policy you are advocating gives the idle rich risk free real gains at the expense of the working poor, it is impossible to argue with a straight face that the implications are beneficial for equity and growth...

> As for the past having higher mortgages, this provides data on such from 1950. [1] "...the typical monthly mortgage payment [of] $54.31 for principal, interest, FHA mortgage insurance premium, hazard insurance, taxes and special assessments, and any miscellaneous items such as ground rent." 1950 median personal was $3300, so a house mortgage cost 20% of that. Current median personal income is $45k, so that'd be a mortgage on a new house of about $750 with tax/insurance/assessment/etc included in that. We can safely reject the claim that mortgages were higher.\

I am not sure why you are pretending that this was a period of sustained deflation though. Au contraire, the large increase to housing supply in the 1940s coincided with CPI being much higher than recent averages, driven in part by a relaxation in monetary policy to support war financing and full recovery from the Great Depression.[1]

We're not interested in reinventing the 1950s though, we're interested in how to achieve deflation. Since monetary base growth has an inverse relationship with interest rates, eliminating it implies structurally higher base interest rates, which implies homebuyers pay more money to the bank for the same house (which is almost guaranteed to be worth significantly less than its financing costs). No amount of inaccurate historical claims is going to dress that up as a progressive move that will make housing more affordable.

> Yet when you look at what people could buy in the past on a typical median salary, or the lifestyle it could provide - it almost sounds like make believe, and is way more than enough to make one wonder what went wrong?

Seriously, you'd rather live in the 1950s where according to the report there's a 5% chance you don't have a toilet, never mind extreme luxuries like a toilet or television. Well I guess at least aspiring to that lifestyle is consistent with your enthusiasm for policies that enrich the haves at the expense of the have nots...

[1]A Great Depression which is the last period to actually sees sustained price falls for more than a quarter or two, which was also the last period to see free convertibility of the USD to gold. It was a period of 25% unemployment...

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#246
post #202

Revisionist history will tell it differently, but I remember that from the mid 1990s until about 2000 when the economy was booming yet prices weren't rising, Greenspan publicly indicated that he wasn't sure exactly why that was. Or at least that the information economy had different performance characteristics than the industrial economy, since production wasn't limited by supply but by worker productivity multiplier…

Just want to say I appreciate the effort that you put into this. I know HN sometimes doesn't vote up the big posts but if they're well researched and follow a thought through to a conclusion, I think they're a valuable addition to the discussion. cheers

Thanks, that means a lot. I cringe after posting this stuff, caught somewhere between ego and soul. But I agree with you that having a written record of our experience is important.

And I realized after sleeping on it that it's not good form to pontificate when someone passes. For that I am sorry. For what it's worth, I thought highly of Greenspan for his tendency to resist outside pressure, and wish that we had more adults in the room today.

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're engaging in a pretty common fallacy by taking the contemporary standard, in a world full of wild inflation and funny money, retroactively applying it backwards, seeing [correctly] that it wouldn't work, and thus concluding that funny money is needed. But you need to consider the impacts of the funny money itself. One fundamental difference is that inflationary systems incentivize the hoarding of 'things', like…

> But in stable or deflationary systems there's no inflation to hide from and the price of 'things' is stable or can even decrease over time, so there's no longer a hoarding incentivization for 'things.' Here's how things worked in the early 20th century: Let us say a farmer had taken out a mortgage in 1928, and let us say his mortgage payment was US$20 (equivalent of 1 oz. of gold). In May 1929 he would have had to…

I don't think assessing data during the Great Depression is meaningful. It's in the same way that I wouldn't look at data from the ever-recurring crashes/bubbles in modern times to critique things, outside of the frequency of those events themselves.

But, that said, your overall point is perfectly reasonable, but does something the other poster also did in that you're taking present times and retroactively applying it, when that's not really accurate. For instance this [1] is from the 1910 census. There were about 3.95 million farms operated by owners and about 66% of them were owned with no mortgage. Page 8 / table 7. And that was at a record high for the time owing to the increasing trend of becoming a debt riddled society. Go back not that much further in history and near to 100% of farmers owned their farmers, free and clear.

Modern times incentivizes going deep into debt, past times disincentivized it. I think it's becoming fairly clear that a debt driven society is unsustainable, largely because it requires infinite exponential growth to sustain itself. We swapped to a completely free floating currency only in 1971, after defaulting on our debt obligations under Bretton Woods. And that's also when the digitization expansion started taking off, which drove decades of unimaginable growth, making that infinite exponential growth seem briefly viable. But now that growth phase is slowing. We need either LLMs or space to trigger another exponential growth phase. If they don't, then there's going to be rough seas ahead.

[1] - https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1910/...

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By definition, deflation is people choosing not to contribute to production obtaining increasing returns on doing and risking absolutely nothing Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You…

> Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You can also use those gains in your spending power to achieve even greater things. It's up to the person. It is, indeed up to the person. But if yo…

[deleted]

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> By definition, deflation is people choosing not to contribute to production obtaining increasing returns on doing and risking absolutely nothing Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You…

> Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You can also use those gains in your spending power to achieve even greater things. It's up to the person. It is, indeed up to the person. But if yo…

In deflation you're not fighting against the system, like you are with inflation. If you earn 0.001% on your money, you're seeing a net increase in your wealth. Your comment implies you were equating it with inflationary systems where you need to beat inflation just to stop losing money. So both the rich and poor constantly see their spending power increase. If a billionaire wants to bury all his money, he's only hurting himself.

By contrast inflation is very different. Ostensibly everybody has their spending power reduced, but the wealthy can sidestep this by hoarding assets, whereas lower income individuals lack the resources to do so. In both systems the rich get richer. The major difference is what happens to the non-rich. In deflationary systems, they see their spending power increase over time. In inflationary systems, they see it decrease.

The thing I think you're not appreciating is self-feedback within systems. Consider education. Why are education costs inflating far ahead of already high inflation rates? It's because education is/was perceived as relatively priceless, and the government passed various laws mandating and enabling the ease of access to debt. So you take something that was perceived as priceless and give people vast sums of debt to purchase it. The exact same is true of housing. The endless inflation-driven price increases make it seem like a priceless asset. Now insert debt and away we go.

---

The reason I've focused on data from 1950 is because that's the final decade before we entered the full-on money printing era. Such had already commenced by then, but it was relatively modest. The reason I think they did some things much better is because of the median standard of life. Somebody could go to university, buy a car, and graduate with enough squirreled away for the downpayment on their first home - on the back of a part time job. This is not a trope - I can cite the exact figures if you fancy.

This is a large part of the reason that the boomers were largely completely out of touch with modern economics, and wondered why people didn't just work harder, like they did. In any case, all of the arguments I'm making are even more pronounced if you go further back than the 50s (sans catastrophes of course), but then we get to economic eras that are more and more alien. The 50s still feels at least kind of 'real', though when you look at what they could afford on the median, it already feels a bit like make believe.

Re: Alan Greenspan has died

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deflation results from not printing money. When the growth in the amount of stuff in the economy exceeds the growth in the amount of money in the economy - each dollar becomes worth more over time. That is deflation. Yeah you can sit on it and take it as passive gains. You can also use those gains in your spending power to achieve even greater things. It's up to the person. It is, indeed up to the person. But if yo…

In deflation you're not fighting against the system, like you are with inflation. If you earn 0.001% on your money, you're seeing a net increase in your wealth. Your comment implies you were equating it with inflationary systems where you need to beat inflation just to stop losing money. So both the rich and poor constantly see their spending power increase. If a billionaire wants to bury all his money, he's only hur…

> If a billionaire wants to bury all his money, he's only hurting himself.

Nope, if you're fixing the supply of money, you're making the monetary economy zero sum. If a rich person buries his money, that's less money available to everyone else that needs money, forcing them to work harder to earn the same amount of income to pay their bills. The billionaire on the other hand ends up richer than before without taking any risks or doing any work, or even maintaining anything

> By contrast inflation is very different. Ostensibly everybody has their spending power reduced, but the wealthy can sidestep this by hoarding assets, whereas lower income individuals lack the resources to do so. In both systems the rich get richer. The major difference is what happens to the non-rich. In deflationary systems, they see their spending power increase over time. In inflationary systems, they see it decrease.

This is just nonsense though, isn't it? The rich can hoard assets in any sort of system, but you are the person explicitly advocating a system rigged to ensure that the asset they hoard is fixed in supply and required by the non-rich as a means of payment, guaranteeing the rich risk free gains in perpetuity from starving the economy of resources. By contrast when the economy isn't rigged to preserve people who hold cash's wealth at the expense of those who need to earn cash, rich people have to invest in stuff like companies, which carries risk and actually contributes towards stuff being made and people having jobs

Non rich people can't afford to hoard cash in either system, they have bills to pay and need somewhere to live. In the US today, most non-rich people store most of their net worth in their house, an asset you are advocating becoming an expensive burden on them which will never increase in value.

As for the poor people living month to month, they don't get to store any non-trivial amount of value in either system. But an economy that isn't starved of capital offers them jobs, which is a lot better than "hey, that cash you need to spend on this month's food would buy you even more food this time next year if you didn't need to eat, why are you even worried about the unemployment rate?"

> The thing I think you're not appreciating is self-feedback within systems. Consider education. Why are education costs inflating far ahead of already high inflation rates? It's because education is/was perceived as relatively priceless, and the government passed various laws mandating and enabling the ease of access to debt. So you take something that was perceived as priceless and give people vast sums of debt to purchase it. The exact same is true of housing. The endless inflation-driven price increases make it seem like a priceless asset. Now insert debt and away we go.

The thing I think you're not appreciating is that I'm the participant in this discussion that understands how supply and demand works. The reason why the price of education grows ahead of income, and the growth in the number of people that would like graduate jobs exceeds the growth in reputable college places, and since college places also proportionally boost people's lifetime incomes, it's usually a good bet. This is nothing to do with it being "priceless". Suffice to say non-rich people who want college places are not helped by either by making it expensive or impossible to access finance or depressing their future incomes, even though both factors will ceteris paribus depress tuition fees.

> The reason I've focused on data from 1950 is because that's the final decade before we entered the full-on money printing era.

The reason you've focused on data from 1950s which is not an example of the policy you advocate is the last time we had the two things you favour (policy actually encouraging year on year deflation due to the US money supply being limited by its redeemability for gold) was a time of misery almost unprecedented in modern history. And if you want a money supply that's actually fixed in terms of commodities rather than going through repeated inflation/crash cycles as banks try to deal with the gold supply being insufficient, we're going back to pre-industrial times. There's a reason why there's no period of sustained deflation in modern history for you to compare with outside a massive credit crunch, and that's that sustained deflation is synonymous with a credit crunch, with all the side effects that entails.

CPI inflation in the 1950s averaged around where it's been for most of this century (and the Fed's actual target), just with more volatility. It was much higher the decade before (during which the US won a war, and also found enough money left over to boost the housing stock). The fact a decade with inflation averaging just under 2% is actually compatible with the job outlook being relatively rosy and more people being able to buy homes than before actually fits my argument better than yours.

Memes about 1950s purchasing power[1] to counter boomer arguments is not an argument against the tautology that deflation is sustained by people who contribute to the economy working harder and taking more risks with their investments to ensure that the people can increase their purchasing power by not contributing to the economy.

[1]fwiw there are an order of magnitude more cars in the US today, and you can definitely buy a better car than most people were driving in the 1950s with a part time job today. And it's funny how those memes never mention other consumer goods, or food or that more people actually manage to buy their home today...

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