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Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

economist.com

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Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#291

Post by baq »

RandomLensman wrote: post #242
TeMPOraL wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the time, yes. But you have to keep two things separate in your thinking: - Prompted as in prompt made of tokens -> for LLMs, tokens double as a clock signal. Time only flows when tokens are pushed through them. - Prompted as in specific request placed in the stream of tokens -> Yeah, they do that all the time whether it's getting into infinite loops of repeating same pattern, or suddenly deciding to do things ba…

So without a token pushed into them they do something? Not sure I understand... In the current UIs is there a lot of suppression then as I have not seen things start on their own? I meant an LLM doing something without any external prompt at all. Not doing something different etc but rather do something without a token/prompt ever flowing to it.

You’d need to train a model to be able to do that.

We shouldn’t be doing that as a civilization in case it works.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#292

Post by grumpymuppet »

swalsh wrote: post #257

There's issues where bad people with bad intentions use AI to do bad things. But to an extent the guardrails already built-in are sufficient. The real danger in AI is how it impacts society, our economy, and our perception of self worth. I'm not afraid of rouge agents nearly as much as I'm afraid of us building a permanent underclass of people dependent on whatever scraps the people who devalued their labor decide th…

I had my "wow" moment recently and saw an AI agent do something do over a weekend something that I spent years developing a relatively niche skill might have needed a month to complete.

I think the message the team lead takes away right now is "oh, this can be done a lot faster, let's do more!" This is exciting for a bit, but I think it comes at the cost of learning -- and being able to communicate --architectural lessons that would stage off systemic issues later.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#293

Post by leoc »

cubefox wrote: post #247
root_axis wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hinton also said we should stop training radiologists 10 years ago because it would be solved by AI.

That's not accurate, see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xE2HzcHWPFS9EsJqN/radiology-...

He seems pretty unequivocal in the video: https://youtu.be/2HMPRXstSvQ . He even points out that it’s something which he’s claimed previously, ruling out the idea that it was some kind of spur-of-the-moment conclusion.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#294

Post by hnthrow0287345 »

nopinsight wrote: post #122
otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone should document these cringe comments for posterity. As a warning to future generations. It's too bad the previous singularity cult manias 10 and 15 years ago weren't documented and are lost in time.

Ten years ago, most of the skeptics in these threads would have said the success of AlphaFold 3 was impossible.

They'll only get to claim a hollow victory because AGI is impossible to rigorously define. None of the regulating bodies of consumer products will be able to define it better than academics. They'll use marketing to make those claims and there will be legal battles that keep it in a gray area.

They'll go for that because it's easier than actually inventing the 'sci-fi' AGI, shareholders keep making money, and it keeps them getting paid to keep going. If any of them actually do succeed, then that little deception will be peanuts.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#295

Post by archievillain »

nephihaha wrote: post #263
nopinsight wrote: post #115

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era... We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year…

Why are these people so obsessed with the year 2030? It keeps popping up everywhere.

It feels close (it's only 4 years away) and yet futuristic (the new decade!). The way it feels is important because all these statements are based on jack and only exist for hype.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#297

Post by azan_ »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #118
nopinsight wrote: post #115

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era... We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year…

Someone should document these cringe comments for posterity. As a warning to future generations. It's too bad the previous singularity cult manias 10 and 15 years ago weren't documented and are lost in time.

If you look how much goalpost has been moved over the last decade it'd turn out that AI cultist were right more frequently than AI sceptics.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#298

Post by nephihaha »

lioeters wrote: post #283
nephihaha wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are these people so obsessed with the year 2030? It keeps popping up everywhere.

It's like when people obsessed about 2020, or 2000. It's a nice clean number in the decimal numbering system.

No, there's a lot more to it. I never saw this kind of fuss about 2000 or 2020.

I keep seeing things about how some target has to be hit by 2030. Our local council keeps going on about it, in fact their WiFi network even contains 2030!

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#299

Post by Schlagbohrer »

mirekrusin wrote: post #72
dotdi wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that absolute progress is slow, it's extremely slow compared to the predictions. It might be fast in absolute terms, but the "50% of coders will be obsolete by 2023" has been renewed every six months, and it's becoming increasingly clear that there's a real chance it might not ever happen.

„Coders being obsolete” is not a measure of AI capabilities. I see coders being more busy than ever before. I see people without coding knowledge getting more behind. The gap is widening, not shrinking.

I see people without coding ability catching up to learned coders. AI is a huge force multiplier for people who don't have hands on, detailed technical knowledge, AI can increasingly handle that and just needs a human to steer it more broadly.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#300

Post by bubblegumcrisis »

cobbzilla wrote: post #250
tedggh wrote: post #166

Why should we assume AI can rapidly turn into super intelligence when physical and critical resources like energy and materials remain under human control?

The first time an AI goes rogue, figures out subterfuge, blackmails a human to do its real-world bidding, will be a defining moment.

I think, the defining moment will be when one AI convinces another AI to convince third AI to do something.

This might seem like I'm writing a nonsense, but read it again.

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