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Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

economist.com

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Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#111

Post by watwut »

nopinsight wrote: post #98
hypfer wrote: post #68

Reminds me of all of those ethics debates back when fully self driving cars were basically already here ca 10 years ago. The ones talking about how hard it would be to chose which person to run over. Additionally, I find it hard to believe that this would be a case of the future just not being distributed evenly. But sure. The AI labs relying on hype stating 15-50% risk of building a magic entity is certainly a relia…

Things in the real world often take longer than expected. Still, in cities where Waymo operates, many people routinely ride autonomous vehicles and prefer them. For software, however, a rapid turn is often a possibility. See: AI for coding over the last 3-4 years. AI autocomplete --> AI coding assistants --> vibe coding --> agent orchestration Coders can now accomplish work that used to take a week or longer in a cou…

> Things in the real world often take longer than expected.

Things in the real world often take longer than hype con men claim.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#112

Post by esailija »

JuniperMesos wrote: post #87
bandrami wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, I'm very much tech-forward and have spent the past decade in major world cities and I've seen a driverless car once in my life. Sometimes things that seem inevitable really aren't.

I see driverless cars all the time in San Francisco and I'm eagerly awaiting the regulatory decisions that will allow them to be widely available in the bay area at large.

They are not actually driverless, they have remote human operators for the edge cases.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#113

Post by nopinsight »

RandomLensman wrote: post #110
nopinsight wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With incessant advances in robotics, how long would that continue to be the case? Should we start preparing for something that could be world-changing in the next 10-20 years?

For how the world might change in 10-20? I'd say no need to prepare, too many hypotheticals.

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year...

I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era...

We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year with the way the agents are working and tool use, it started to become really useful, still early days of it, but genuinely useful in people's workflows...

And it's not any one thing, it's several different technologies, several use cases, several things that I thought were maybe a bit further out, turned out to be now, that are coming together that make me feel that in aggregate.

I think society needs to hear that because we don't have long to prepare for what that means." -- Demi Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind & Nobel laureate

https://x.com/deredleritt3r/status/2062223035940139253

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#114

Post by nikanj »

hypfer wrote: post #68

Reminds me of all of those ethics debates back when fully self driving cars were basically already here ca 10 years ago. The ones talking about how hard it would be to chose which person to run over. Additionally, I find it hard to believe that this would be a case of the future just not being distributed evenly. But sure. The AI labs relying on hype stating 15-50% risk of building a magic entity is certainly a relia…

I have had my license for over 20 years and to this day have not encountered a single event where I had to decide who to kill

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#115

Post by nopinsight »

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year...

I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era...

We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year with the way the agents are working and tool use, it started to become really useful, still early days of it, but genuinely useful in people's workflows...

And it's not any one thing, it's several different technologies, several use cases, several things that I thought were maybe a bit further out, turned out to be now, that are coming together that make me feel that in aggregate.

I think society needs to hear that because we don't have long to prepare for what that means." -- Demi Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind & Nobel laureate

Source with interview clip: https://x.com/deredleritt3r/status/2062223035940139253

EDIT: Ten years ago, most of the skeptics in these threads would have said the success of AlphaFold 3 was impossible.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#116

Post by shevy-java »

Of course humanity is not ready for skynet. But there are rebel forces - the no AI using humans. They may be a dying breed but at the least they put up a fight. Many other humans already have become servants to skynet (version 16.0 now). Next step for them is the neuralink chip. Some billionaire with twitching right arm gestures owns that, doesn't it ...

(Also, Cameron was not quite right with regards to skynet. It is much much dumber but also more effective than displayed in his movie really. Kind of a weird combination if you look at the current AI slop out there.)

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#117

Post by RandomLensman »

nopinsight wrote: post #113
RandomLensman wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For how the world might change in 10-20? I'd say no need to prepare, too many hypotheticals.

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era... We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year…

Certainly a well reasoned view, but I don't necessarily have to agree.

Even assuming the technological predictions to be correct, still not sure I agree on the need to "prepare" as how things work out in societies and economies might not be so easy to predict.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#118

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

nopinsight wrote: post #115

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era... We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year…

Someone should document these cringe comments for posterity. As a warning to future generations.

It's too bad the previous singularity cult manias 10 and 15 years ago weren't documented and are lost in time.

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#119

Post by esailija »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #118
nopinsight wrote: post #115

"Ten years from now, I think we will realize that we were standing in the foothills of the singularity now... I believe that we're only a few years away from [AGI], maybe 2030 plus or minus a year... I think [AGI] will be an enormous transformative technology, it's going to effectively be a new human era... We can feel this year, I would say, even though I've been working towards this for 30 years, I think this year…

Someone should document these cringe comments for posterity. As a warning to future generations. It's too bad the previous singularity cult manias 10 and 15 years ago weren't documented and are lost in time.

You know in the future they are just going to say it's different this time right?

Re: Humanity isn't ready for the coming intelligence explosion

#120

Post by skydhash »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #101
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, I think AI has eliminated writing code. Then you are dead wrong. Anyone who gives a shit about doing a good job is still writing code.

No, that’s not accurate. I’m not sure what to tell you. It’s like hearing that no serious programmer uses Python, it’s so far from my experience and that of everyone I know in the field that I don’t know how to engage.

Do you think that everyone in the Linux kernel team write their code using AI only? What about Emacs? And cURL?
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