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US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

bbc.com

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Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#201

Post by kelnos »

tristanj wrote: post #141
defrost wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless agreements are renegotiated and extended, of course. What matters is ongoing engagement and monitoring, it's a far more tractable position than standoffs with zero knowledge or interaction.

The core reason those sunset dates exist is because Iranian officials stated that a sunset on enrichment limits was a non-negotiable. They would not sign a deal without them. Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical. What incentive does Iran have to agree to enrichment caps post-2030? Why would Iran give up its strongest negotiating card, its nuclear program?

> Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is hypothetical.

What's not hypothetical is that, under the deal, they agreed to not enrich until 2030. What's not hypothetical is that Trump abandoned the deal, with nothing to replace it, allowing them to start enriching in 2017 instead.

And if you're going to claim that renegotiation is hypothetical, then you also have to agree that any other possible future outcome, including one in which Iran develops a functional nuclear weapon, is also hypothetical.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#202

Post by kelnos »

firesteelrain wrote: post #43

I don’t know how this is worse for the US or the World. Iran’s leadership and military was decapitated. It’s in the best interest of US, Europe and Israel and the Middle East. The nuclear program had a huge setback. What are the counter arguments to these facts if we really end up in peace with Iran along with the bad actors gone too?

Very little has changed with the regime. The next in line stepped up, and it seems like the future will be business as usual.

The nuclear bogeyman is the wrong thing to focus on. Sure, we don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but they have a lot of other power in the region, and we've only confirmed and entrenched that power.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#203

Post by drbojingle »

firesteelrain wrote: post #43

I don’t know how this is worse for the US or the World. Iran’s leadership and military was decapitated. It’s in the best interest of US, Europe and Israel and the Middle East. The nuclear program had a huge setback. What are the counter arguments to these facts if we really end up in peace with Iran along with the bad actors gone too?

Yes, removing leadership is very important. It's why the US does it every 4 to 8 years. The Iranians aren't gone just because they lost a leader. If anything they proved resilient.

The biggest problems with all of this seem to be the knock-on effects, as well as the lead-up. Does this new deal actually do more than Obama's? Doubtful. Obama's didn't come with a girls' school blown to bits or a world leader assassinated.

Everything around the politics of the attack looks amateurish. Calling on Europe to attack Iran even though no deal is in place with them to do so. Not stopping Iranian strikes throughout the middle east. Not keeping Israel in line. The war has been dragging on for months, but "it'll end this week." No, this week. "Very close this week." "Very close this week."

Then there's the issue of shooting down cheap drones with expensive equipment. Why in the name of the Lord is it that Ukraine has been bombed by Shaheds for years and defended against them using NATO and US weapons, but operators of US equipment in the Middle East had nothing to show for it? Did the US not have direct access to how the Ukrainians were using their equipment in a war characterized by the use of drones and AI to an extent never before seen? Did the US decide to not look into that for years, or simply let it slide knowing Iran would bomb its neighbors? Why was it that Zelenskyy had to go to the Middle East to make sure they used American weapons correctly? It seems to me lately that every country that can produce a meaningful amount of oil has been directly or indirectly affected by American aggression, and one has to wonder why you'd do something so blatant in slow motion.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#204

Post by TiredOfLife »

hnbad wrote: post #92
riazrizvi wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's a war between Israel and the US vs Iran that was literally initiated by the US after a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu. Also Israel is a rogue state that has been committing war crimes including genocide and is engaging in expansionist wars worse at this point than Russia's. It's in everyone's interest that Israel be either stopped or undergo a regime change that abandons Apartheid and creates a multicultura…

> is engaging in expansionist wars worse at this point than Russia's

You should really reevaluate the news sources you use if you think that

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#205

Post by dofm »

no-name-here wrote: post #178
dofm wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends who you ask, I think. It looks like it is more an MoU than a deal, and I think that allows Trump the cover to drip feed out how humiliating it is, because this isn't the kind of band-aid you rip off all at once. If I were a betting man I would bet that between now and Friday there will be too much news coverage of just how humiliating this is for the USA, how bad a deal it is, and how much of failure it is, a…

I can see the logic in what you’re saying, but Iran state media is reporting the deal includes “The US and its allies delivering reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300bn” (in addition to the $25B) but I don’t understand their use of the word “plan”? https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj0grpyg4v1t?post=asset%3A1793...

That has been kicking around in the deal discussions since the end of May, yeah. Nothing much about this MoU seems to have really changed since then:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/emerging-us-ira...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/iran-could-rece...

Two diplomats briefed on the latest draft called it “an international ‘investment fund,’ which the United States would help facilitate in the event of a final deal,” and plans for which would be discussed during the initial 60-day negotiations period that the memorandum would kick off, the report says.

It appears to concern the authorisation of a sort of Marshall Plan inward investment fund that may end up holding that sort of amount of cash that the US effectively agrees to facilitate and allow.

But I guess a key thing is that it involves is the USA agreeing not to seize it. It would also implicitly allow businesses to do the reconstruction work without being sanctioned.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#206

Post by dingaling »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #12

I wonder how the stock markets will react tomorrow. I know someone who turned $6k into $150k by buying options on war related news. The logic is that the markets will almost certainly go up, so bet big at a time like this. It sounded like an easy way to lose $6k, but maybe the upside is worth the risk. I don’t have any experience to know whether this is a sufficiently good bet though.

> The logic is that the markets will almost certainly go up

The markets go up because people buy expecting that the markets will go up, which causes sellers to increase their price because they expect people will pay more because of FOMO, which people still buy because they expect the market to go up further.

The snake somehow keeps eating its tail.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#207

Post by frm88 »

petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

What they also get: lifting of international sanctions: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-france-germany-italy...

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#208

Post by bulbar »

petilon wrote: post #50

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d... Key bullets: What Iran gets: * The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines. * Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agree…

US just gonna trust Iran regarding their nuclear program?

No trust or guessing need in that case, Iran will only pause their nuclear program, maybe not even that.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#209

Post by Gud »

riazrizvi wrote: post #184
hnbad wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a war between Israel and the US vs Iran that was literally initiated by the US after a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu. Also Israel is a rogue state that has been committing war crimes including genocide and is engaging in expansionist wars worse at this point than Russia's. It's in everyone's interest that Israel be either stopped or undergo a regime change that abandons Apartheid and creates a multicultura…

After 400 years of Ottoman rule, we the Brits took that region because we won WWI. We gave some to different Arab groups, and some to the Israelis. The muslim religious head of Jerusalem wrote fan mail to Hitler advocating for the Final Solution. The hostility toward Jews had been whipped up for years and the general unwillingness of the neighboring regions to agree to the lines that the UK delegated to the UN is why…

Why the fuck does the colonial power dictate who “gets” land?

The land was stolen from the local farmers and fishermen and given to Europeans.

Re: US and Iran announce deal to end military operations

#210

Post by bulbar »

gyanchawdhary wrote: post #87
woodruffw wrote: post #7

Are the terms of the deal public yet? If they're essentially a return to the status quo ante bellum, that would be a pretty embarrassing conclusion for the US (and would presumably further harden any belief within Iran that the only permanent regime-preserving solution involves accelerating the process of obtaining nuclear weapons).

[flagged]

To the contrary, the war has proven to Iran how critical their nuclear program is to the regime's, and maybe Iran's, survival.

US wouldn't go into such a war against Russia, because of their nuclear program. They wouldn't have attacked Iran if they already had a standing nuclear program with strategic nuclear weaponary.

What are their options now? Strategically focus on rebuilding their defense capabilities with most likely the same result in 10-25 years or strategically focus on nuclear weapons so that adversaries won't rage war against them like that again in 10-25 years?

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