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A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

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Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#281

Post by dalyons »

budsniffer952 wrote: post #123
coryrc wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The question is whether you use solar PV or build more coal plants to supply them. The latter makes people sicker, but more dependent on the government, so you can guess which one gets the tax breaks and which one gets tariffs and international politics to make it more expensive to acquire.

Coal technology is cheap and wide spread. PV technology is not, yet.

Huh? Solar is widely acknowledged to be significantly cheaper than building new coal. And it is everywhere, you can just buy containers of it and have it delivered anywhere in the world.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#282

Post by blindriver »

dahinds wrote: post #231
blindriver wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My source of climate skepticisms is based on the following: 1) We know that the Earth was much warmer in the past, including the Medieval Warming Period. We know that the Alps were warm enough so that the Iceman could pass through them without protection from the cold, and yet he was found encased in ice. 2) We know that the Earth is cooler now than in the past. And it's also hotter than it was in the past. 3) We kno…

There's a lot to unpack here: - the warming in the Medieval Warming Period is modest compared to projected modern warming - The Alps are currently "warm enough" to be crossed without special gear much of the year. Otzi was found wearing multiple layers of hides and furs that would have provided good protection against the elements and is supposed to have been killed in late spring/early summer, not the depths of wint…

Nothing you wrote refutes anything that I said. Comparing actual historical temperatures to speculative temperatures where no models have been accurate isn't science.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#283

Post by MarkMarine »

darth_avocado wrote: post #256
MarkMarine wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole framing you’re using is wrong. If you can do climate modeling and math at the planet scale, you don’t need to be convinced you have read the research and you knew 30 years ago. If you’re skeptical of scientific authority and lack those skills… as well as the critical thinking required to read the research and distill your own conclusions, there is basically no way to convince you. You can’t find objective t…

> Capital needs to understand it’s in its interest to fix the problem and it will be fixed You’re looking at Capital as a monolithic block. The problem is that the majority of the Capital at the moment sits with the block that can only function by burning more fossil fuels and mowing down the last of the forests to extract natural resources. The private equity firm that owns private beach resorts will never be able t…

I don’t see it that way. Some see the invisible hand of the market but I just don’t, the involvement in politics… the purposeful shaping of public opinion that is against the public interest, capital has an interest and it’s making its interest felt.

I’m pretty sure the burning fossil fuel and mowing down rainforest isn’t in the long term interest, I’m also sure that if I’m dumb enough to see this the people in control are as well. So I admit I can’t see the end state, but I’m sure the machine is being fed somehow

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#284

Post by blindriver »

eckesicle wrote: post #234
blindriver wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My source of climate skepticisms is based on the following: 1) We know that the Earth was much warmer in the past, including the Medieval Warming Period. We know that the Alps were warm enough so that the Iceman could pass through them without protection from the cold, and yet he was found encased in ice. 2) We know that the Earth is cooler now than in the past. And it's also hotter than it was in the past. 3) We kno…

> Until someone can reconcile these facts, and they can say distinctively that the rise in temperature we see right now isn't the same reason as before, I'm going to believe that temperature will moderate and cool, just like it did in the past. Would you indulge me and see if this one chart might change your mind? It includes each of your data points. https://xkcd.com/1732/

A cartoon purporting to know the localized temperatures around the world going back 20,000 years is not science.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#286

Post by giantg2 »

no_wizard wrote: post #171
giantg2 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want the products. Industry wouldn't exist, or not at this scale, without that. The easiest way to see this is air travel. The vast majority of it is unnecessary - business trips that could be a zoom call, vacations, shipping, etc. People got to every place on earth using trains and ships before air travel. Possible exceptions are medical transport and some types of products, which are tiny by comparison. So y…

It’s not that simple. For instance, consumers want fast and high speed rail and light rail in cities, yet the federal government is still subsidizing hundreds of billions of dollars to car centric projects rather than allowing municipalities and state governments to have control over those funds they come with strings attached that force them to choose car centric options. Affordable housing is another example. Consu…

"For instance, consumers want fast and high speed rail and light rail in cities, yet the federal government is still subsidizing hundreds of billions of dollars to car centric projects rather than allowing municipalities and state governments to have control over those funds they come with strings attached that force them to choose car centric options."

Oftentimes that comes from road taxes, so it's really car use subsidizing the car-centric projects. If states and municipalities (and the voters) really want it, then why aren't they subsidizing the public transport options... choices - there arent that many who want it bad enough to pay for it.

"Affordable housing is another example. Consumers want reliable cheap homes but every single attempt to unseat obtuse regulations and policies that make home bulldog a nightmare across metropolitan areas all over the Us entrenched home owners fight in as many ways possible to keep new homes from being built. This pushes more people into farther out suburbs that makes an existing issue even worse."

Not really. Consumer polling shows people want things like bigger, fancier single family homes over basic small apartments. Of course they only want them in "good" neighborhoods too. These preferences are choices.

"The false dichotomy that it’s simply choice is not a good faith argument."

Dichotomy implies there are only two choices. I'm simply following the logic and data. As soon as you give people the resources for "better" housing/transport/etc they take it, regardless of the externalities. Check the size and quality of new homes, the requirements and accessories for new cars, etc. The standards and options for things only goes up as the affordability does. If you can show this is not true, then I'd love to see real world examples of the majority of people choosing smaller homes, simplier cars, etc when affordability is not a factor.

"And we subsidize a lot when it comes to oil, natural gas and coal,"

Do you have examples? Most of the recent subsidies in the past decade and tax credits I've seen have been around solar, more efficient appliances, etc.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#287

Post by giantg2 »

zug_zug wrote: post #180
giantg2 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want the products. Industry wouldn't exist, or not at this scale, without that. The easiest way to see this is air travel. The vast majority of it is unnecessary - business trips that could be a zoom call, vacations, shipping, etc. People got to every place on earth using trains and ships before air travel. Possible exceptions are medical transport and some types of products, which are tiny by comparison. So y…

No it's not on consumer choice. The US government is SUBSIDIZING gasoline when it should be taxing it at a higher rate because of the environmental side-effects. This is standard economics theory, you tax any form of an environmental damage (e.g. carbon) at the rate of what it costs to clean it up.

Can you give me some examples of gas being subsidized?

"This is standard economics theory, you tax any form of an environmental damage (e.g. carbon) at the rate of what it costs to clean it up."

Again, that's a choice for which the population's opinions differ. You have some people who would tax people for existing because of their carbon dioxide output, body heat, space they take up, etc.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#288

Post by giantg2 »

llukas wrote: post #161
giantg2 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want the products. Industry wouldn't exist, or not at this scale, without that. The easiest way to see this is air travel. The vast majority of it is unnecessary - business trips that could be a zoom call, vacations, shipping, etc. People got to every place on earth using trains and ships before air travel. Possible exceptions are medical transport and some types of products, which are tiny by comparison. So y…

Policy of subsidizing various modes of transportation modes shapes consumer choices. Best example is high speed rail vs air on shorter routes.

If there was enough demand for high speed rail, couldn't a company form a profitable business model to provide that service? Many people don't take trains because the service is abysmal in the US. People who visit Europe tend to use the trains and prefer it over flying. It seems we're in a chicken and egg situation in the US. Even subsidies to Amtrak don't seem to fix the issue.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#289

Post by m3kw9 »

hliyan wrote: post #32

I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 yea…

Except the threat isn’t clear to all and our tech tree in 400 year is likely to quell climate change

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#290

Post by SJC_Hacker »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #118
hliyan wrote: post #32

I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 yea…

> If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real The areas to be rendered “uninhabitable” in our lifetimes are all poor. Hence the disconnect.

Miami is definitely not poor
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