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A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

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Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#32
I recently finished rewatching The Three Body Problem in which (spoilers follow) the world panics and goes into overdrive because an alien invasion is due in... 400 years. If the current climate trends continue, vast areas of the Earth may not be suitable for habitation within half that time, and we still can't seem to convince some people this is real. Granted I was a climate change skeptic myself until about 10 years ago, but right now the data seems indisputable. Even if we can't find a direct causal relationship between CO2 emissions and warming, we know the following very accurately (disclaimer: not a climate scientist): (1) amount of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere per year (2) concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (3) amount of extra energy that would be theoretically retained in the atmosphere via the green house effect, due to a given increment in CO2 concentration, (4) global temperatures within the past, say 30 years. Don't we know for a fact that (1) + (2) + (3) is very well correlated with (4), and that no other potential causes correlate as well with (4), and don't current computational models demonstrate an ability to predict (4) given (3). So, exactly what is the source of skepticism?

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#33

This world, despite a century of warning, is truly not ready to pay the debt of industrialization

Generally don't do this but this is apropos my recent comment about externalities here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48527158

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#34
post #7
post #3

[flagged]

And yet millions of people still play the lottery. I don’t think it’s as simple as uncertainty. Nobody wants to change their lifestyle to avert climate change. People prefer carrots to sticks.

People prefer carrots to sticks.

I sometimes think those in the environmental movement have made a mistake with their messaging. It is too often "we need to suffer to save the planet". It could also be things like:

  "Why do you want to pay more to drive a giant expensive gas guzzling vehicle to work so that you can pay for a giant expensive gas guzzling vehicle to go to work in".

  "Why do you want to pay for extra electricity when conservation and efficiency will help save money for other things"

  "Single use items are thing you pay for time and  time again. Durable maintainable items you pay for once."

  "Throwing things in the garbage is like paying to store things forever (landfills are not free)"
It is true that there are, at times, good reason to do things that are not at the extreme of conservationism and environmentalism. If the messaging was a little more carrot than stick we might see more progress.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#35

Meh who cares? Let it all burn and flood. Earth gets a fresh start, and hopefully whatever "intelligent" species evolves to be dominant in the next 5-10 million years is a better custodian. Rinse and repeat until that's the case. Heck, who knows if this is actually the 1st or 100th iteration...

Mmm, ecofascism. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecofascism

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#36
post #18
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am interested in your implication that European farmers would have someone other than themselves to blame for this outcome. As a whole they are at least as backwards as American farmers. They are largely deniers of climate change either as a thing altogether or as something attributable to man, or are prone to believing it helps them with longer growing seasons, and their main political activity is protesting any c…

I guess that’s what parent meant. But just because it’s also their fault doesn’t hinder them to blame the government. Who do you think will MAGA blame for the consequences of climate change?

Woke black people who sleep with members of their own gender!!

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#37
post #13
post #4

I really think people are sleeping on the AMOC. The first season there isn't European wine/cheese/olives because of climate change is the first season European farmers probably literally declare war on their governments, to say nothing of the fact that almost no European homes can handle this level of cold. And for some perspective, this is only one of many other huge changes that huge populations will react violentl…

I am interested in your implication that European farmers would have someone other than themselves to blame for this outcome. As a whole they are at least as backwards as American farmers. They are largely deniers of climate change either as a thing altogether or as something attributable to man, or are prone to believing it helps them with longer growing seasons, and their main political activity is protesting any c…

Well for one example of such case: German farmers (if there are any) could argue whether all those nuclear plants shutdowns were really for the best.

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#38
post #10
post #3

[flagged]

Would it be more scientific to say it is sure it will happen? I suspect the opposite is happening, too many times an environmental catastrophe has been predicted in too certain terms and has not happened, which is why many people lost trust. And if you think that we shouldn't try to predict but only inform about what has already happened that seems even stranger to me.

[flagged]

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#39
post #29

Meh who cares? Let it all burn and flood. Earth gets a fresh start, and hopefully whatever "intelligent" species evolves to be dominant in the next 5-10 million years is a better custodian. Rinse and repeat until that's the case. Heck, who knows if this is actually the 1st or 100th iteration...

The rich, who have disproportionately contributed to the current crisis can buy and relocate to safety, while the poor will be hit the hardest.

I've seen a lot of stories about this in the last year, but I truly wonder how effective they will be. What's to stop people from acquiring equipment like large machinery to dig them out of their bunker or bombing it with bunker busters?

Re: A 'cold blob' in the Atlantic could be a sign of AMOC shutdown

#40
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rich, who have disproportionately contributed to the current crisis can buy and relocate to safety, while the poor will be hit the hardest.

I've seen a lot of stories about this in the last year, but I truly wonder how effective they will be. What's to stop people from acquiring equipment like large machinery to dig them out of their bunker or bombing it with bunker busters?

If you look at both past and modern-day equivalents you will see that the rich do buy enough people to work as safety troops.

The reason why Putin or Kim Jong Un is not dead a long time ago is that enough of the ruling upper middle class has been made dependent on their leaders and will work to ensure the safety of said leader.

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