This should be a red herring for Europe (and others using US models). Every non-American company is now at a disadvantage against American companies. The implications can not be overstated.
It's like, the 10th wake up call at this point
There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
401–410 of 518 posts
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#402Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is this "multiplied productivity" in the room with us right now?
I've built one $2.5 million annualized run rate company using Opus this year. Four months of 50+% MoM growth. I couldn't have done that without the model giving me lots of time to do marketing. And build a complete feature set. So yeah. And the year is only halfway done.
I'm curious. What did you build? Sounds like you might have an interesting "Show HN" post on your hands
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#403> But this government [...] I'm hearing a lot of this kind of thing. "Oh if only it was a different government". I'm sorry, but when you cry out for government involvement, it's not always going to be coming from the government you personally wanted. This is the whole problem with government involvement! I don't think that message is getting through, but it's the real lesson that should be learned here.
Mmm. Same argument for any seat of power though.
“It’s not always going to be the (oligo|mono)polistic corporation you personally wanted” either.
So we invent democracy, term limits, anti-trust, branches of government, environmental safety regulations, the SEC etc. etc.
Whether in the public or private sphere we have created social technologies to make power more diffuse and constrained, and corruption and misalignment less likely (never impossible).
One feature of the last decade is the steady erosion of these safety rails.
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#404Earlier quoted context omitted.
This presumes that people will have the time and the patience to wade through the slop and find the gems. Right now people do that with the tide of low quality human-authored games to find the gems but when there's 10x or 100x as many low quality games will people still have the patience? I hope so, but I don't know. We're already seeing a huge uptick in the number of games being released every year on Steam and most…
Not all the things that are good will rise to the top, but most of the things that rise to the top will be good. We've gotten pretty good at ranking systems as a species at this point, I'd say
It really depends on what kind of "good" you're optimizing for. I'd point towards Instagram as a good counterexample: their signup page says that you can "See everyday moments from your close friends.", but most Instagram users see very few such moments, because the algorithm points them towards ragebait reels and thirst traps. If there's a 100x explosion of games, I think it's very likely that organic discovery will simply stop functioning, and nearly all gamers will find themselves leaning on algorithmic recommendations that aren't aligned with what they'd really like to play.
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#405Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah if you're straight and white he's not
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> You either have lost touch with reality so far to be unable to understand what "oppressed" means or you're just parotting someone else who suffers from that affliction.
This 100% applies to you. If you can’t see ICE actions as oppressive, you’ve definitely lost touch with reality.
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#406Earlier quoted context omitted.
At that time, nobody believed a dead internet was technically feasible. Maybe this is hard to remember now. The "danger" was in terms of spam / misinformation proliferation, not the same category of capabilities adjacent risks current discussed. You can hold your own opinions on spam/misinformation as a problem , but to say there was no credibly anticipated outsized downside to a sudden jump in human-passing text gen…
It's amazing to me that people actually thought GPT2 produced "human-passing" text, while I'm still tripping over obvious LLMisms in the output of recent models on a daily basis. (It's also amazing to me that it took mere minutes for this observation, deep in a sub-thread, to get downvoted without any reply, with no obvious reason for it.)
People may perceive you to be cheaply mischaracterizing the argument.
Nobody believed or suggested that GPT2 could do longform or produce novel text that stood up against careful scrutiny as insightful or well informed. But because the capabilities were novel, people would have no strong alternative than to believe some person wrote it.
You current tripping over LLMisms is irrelevant. You have years of antibodies, both personal and herd-immunity (eg, the many, many articles and comments that describe LLMisms).
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#407Earlier quoted context omitted.
I can control government more than I can control Google or Anthropic. Also your argument is along the lines of thinking I argue for: You say I shouldn't lobby for regulation I believe is beneficial because a future government might change the regulations to make them not beneficial. This implicitly assumes that the future government wouldn't implement the non-beneficial regulations if the current government doesn't d…
> I can control government more than I can control Google or Anthropic How true is this really? With the government, you can vote in various elections, or contact your representatives, and when it comes to important issues that will do exactly squat. You can also buy politicians or legislation, or run yourself, if you have the wealth and connections to do so. With corporations, you can vote with your dollars, which a…
The President of the United States visibly hates me and keeps calling me a "Dumocrat". If Sundar Pichai did that, he'd be fired, and even people who despise my politics would generally understand why companies don't let their CEOs say such things.
But Congress won't fire Trump. All of my representatives would, if given a chance, but other representatives in other districts have no accountability to me and don't want to.
So I'm not sure how to avoid the conclusion that I have less practical control over the federal government than I do Google, even if the formal levers of power are meant to achieve a different result.
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#408Earlier quoted context omitted.
This take feels a little like the clergy saying printing presses are dangerous because people will read bad things and spread bad ideas. Turns out they totalky did, but on net it's a small price to pay for widespread literacy.
If the price to pay is total human disempowerment, I think it's worth getting everyone on the same page before we proceed.
This is a steel man of Anthropic's argument, though, and the premise that there could have been a different thing they claimed that would hold up more doesn't and shouldn't defend their position. To the extent to which it comes down to automating and replacing the need for humans or supporting runaway execution that might accidentally kill all the humans, Anthropic routinely measures it, warns of it, and then releases it. Instead, it is only with respect to specific functionality -- much of which is suspiciously beneficial to them, as they internally claim to use AI to improve their own products while also constantly whining about other people using their AI to improve their products -- that they will put a ton of effort into limiting the access or applicability. The day I boot up Claude and ask it to design a website or automate my paperclip factory and it refuses on ethical grounds is the day Anthropic might seem a little less hypocritical.
Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#409Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think everyone does see that there is good government and bad government. They just disagree about which one is the good one and which is the bad one. The real problem is when people demand heavy government involvement but don’t think about what could go wrong if an administration decided to misuse the regulation. They just assume it’s going to be used perfectly as they imagined it, usually to punish the companies…
> I think everyone does see that there is good government and bad government. I only know the time and place I've lived in (United States, born in 1977), but I feel like the trope of "all government is bad" has been the rallying cry of conservatives since the Reagan era. I'm convinced enough people have grown up hearing that trope that your assumption is incorrect. I think a ton of people believe there can only be ba…
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Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing
#410"Meanwhile, Anthropic’s competitors have friends up and down the administration — the Kushners are heavily invested in OpenAI, as an example.2 So another way to read this is that this is an opportunity for other labs to give Anthropic a black eye. Fable is, by all accounts, an incredibly strong model. Very convenient that it’s no longer available for consumers, especially right as Anthropic is about to IPO." This is…
> 'Security' is clearly a pretense, as otherwise the demand would not have been restricted to 'foreign nationals'.
Given everything else this administration has done, you now decide to accept their stated intentions at face value?