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There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

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Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#321

Post by ifyoubuildit »

Certhas wrote: post #317
derangedHorse wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Let's take your argument to it's extreme point: The state should never regulate anything because the state might be bad! I'm not convinced you understand the sentiment of the parent comment. It's that one should consider all possible scenarios of one's actions when making requests of a powerful entity they can't control. The mechanics of government make it such that once something is under their control, it'll be m…

I can control government more than I can control Google or Anthropic. Also your argument is along the lines of thinking I argue for: You say I shouldn't lobby for regulation I believe is beneficial because a future government might change the regulations to make them not beneficial. This implicitly assumes that the future government wouldn't implement the non-beneficial regulations if the current government doesn't d…

> I can control government more than I can control Google or Anthropic

How true is this really? With the government, you can vote in various elections, or contact your representatives, and when it comes to important issues that will do exactly squat. You can also buy politicians or legislation, or run yourself, if you have the wealth and connections to do so.

With corporations, you can vote with your dollars, which again on important issues will probably do squat. Or you can try to get hired and change the company from within. Or if you have the wealth, you can buy the company (partially or wholly), or start a competitor and win in the marketplace.

In both situations there are options, and most of them are basically impossible for the small folk.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#322

Post by carlosjobim »

RealityVoid wrote: post #240
pembrook wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Government is fine if it’s done by people that aren’t in it only for themselves." Academic studies consistently show that people attracted to a career in politics (regardless of affiliation) score higher on "Dark Triad" personality traits (narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy). And even for the non-sociopaths, the problem with humans is instinctively we ARE only in it for ourselves and our family. Anyone…

I think it's reductionist to say politicians are psychopaths.and it's completely dependent on how you structure your society. And, regardless, social coordination is absolutely necessary and you won't be able to do it without the state.

You have to be either a psychopath or a conspirator to get anywhere in politics. The former for a dictator style "cult of personality". The latter for a technocratic/bureaucratic "rules based" parliament rule.

Rule by parliament by the very way it is set up becomes a snake pit of betrayals, horse dealing and back stabbing, when alliances are made. Look into any European political discourse online and offline, and it's all about which parties should ally with which parties after the elections. A million rules are made and routinely circumvented to try to maintain a non-existent "system" of governance which isn't tied to any person, but some abstract paper construct.

Rule by strong man attracts psychopaths and narcissists for obvious reasons, and if not, at least the most ruthless people you can imagine.

>"how you structure your society"

How who structures your society? Now you're back to step one where either the psycho or the snake conspirators rule.

Any change has to first come from within. People have to personally as individuals decide to not pay taxes and decide to not follow the law when the law is unfair. These things are doable, and when enough people do it, the power starts returning to them.

Social coordination has been done for thousands of years before anybody had ever heard of the concept of "a state".

In the future - maybe in our lifetimes - the idea of a state will be irrelevant and forgotten by most. People will laugh at the idea that people revered and feared and even worshipped that paper tiger. It will collapse and disappear into obscurity just like so many other false ideologies through history. Just like the Soviet Union went from being a super power striking terror into the hearts of the world into becoming just a meeting room with a few powerless men with no country and no people to rule.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#323

Post by dgellow »

drevil-v2 wrote: post #271

This kills the entire enterprise market for AI models better than Opus 4.8 1) No one is going to build any workflows/capabilities that could have the underlying intelligence rug pulled instantly by a bureaucracy or malevolent politician. 2) Even if a company was silly enough to take on the risk, is Anthropic going to ask all their enterprise customers to provide passports for all their employees and then setup indivi…

And what if the US government does the same for Opus or other models? No model is safe from being banned that way

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#325

Post by mkl95 »

embedding-shape wrote: post #296
mkl95 wrote: post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From an EU perspective it can look complicated. But when you look at the data, the American electorate is relatively simple-minded. For example: https://navigatorresearch.org/2024-post-election-survey-the-...

Why would "EU perspective" make it look more or less complicated? People are people everywhere, regardless of country. > the American electorate is relatively simple-minded It's favorable for many people who don't agree with the current administration to believe so, I'm not sure how true it is in practice, and again, I believe believing so might hurt your chances of actually understanding things properly. That sort o…

> you're not gonna gain any understanding from a self-reported survey of ~2500 people

A sample size of ~2500 is statistically huge - the margin of error is very small. You should sign up to a stats course.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#326

Post by gwerbin »

mlrtime wrote: post #277
gwerbin wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The entire movement of conservatism in America is a propaganda operation oriented around manufacturing consent for a return to the Gilded Age. It is entirely bankrupt of morals and has been from the beginning. If you personally are a conservative, now is a good time to take a good hard honest look at the history of your movement in American politics. There might even still be time to realign yourself with a movement…

This is garbage reposted in every HN article that starts to talk about any related to politics. I will gladly live in a conservative county over progressive one. And reading this paragraph in a article about AI is complete nonsense. This is a go touch grass moment if you needed one.

I personally repost it everywhere because it is an hypothesis that I believe has strong weight of evidence behind it, and I think it's important to repeat.

Your personal preferences and beliefs have little to do with conservatism at large and the motivations of the powerful people who promote it. If you want to reach a place of open minded debate and discussion in which there can be different legitimate approaches to governing, you have to start with an honest assessment of the world as it is, not as you would like it to be.

The reason it's relevant in an article about AI should be self-evident. AI is powerful, the industry is already massive, and the leaders in that industry are involved in quite a bit of political maneuvering. You may choose to ignore politics, but politics will not ignore you.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#327

Post by matheusmoreira »

snackerblues wrote: post #242
matheusmoreira wrote: post #18

I really hope it's just the USA punishing Anthropic for their insolence. If this is actually the beginning of AI regulation, we're probably heading towards dark times.

Dark times like: - Staying alive - Keeping our jobs ?

Dark times like the end of personal computing, regulatory capture, powerful AI models and computers that can run them becoming something only a special class of people can have, further concentration of wealth and power into corporations and governments.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#328

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

modeless wrote: post #22

> But this government [...] I'm hearing a lot of this kind of thing. "Oh if only it was a different government". I'm sorry, but when you cry out for government involvement, it's not always going to be coming from the government you personally wanted. This is the whole problem with government involvement! I don't think that message is getting through, but it's the real lesson that should be learned here.

Right - this government has it's own problems, and Trump is of course entirely transactional so will be looking for something in return for rescinding this order (as he of course will).

But of course Anthropic has been lobbying hard for this, for government regulation, and finally they've (at least temporarily) got what they want. Maybe they are actually happy with the outcome, who knows. They get to IPO and all get rich, they get to sell current level models, and future development gets heavily regulated.

It was always going to happen anyway - just a matter of time. At some point (whether that is today is beside the point) AI/AGI will become powerful enough to have national security implications and of course the government is going to regulate who can have access or not, put in place export controls, require clearance for developers, etc.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#329

Post by yakshaving_jgt »

arvid-lind wrote: post #312
yakshaving_jgt wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find that incredibly hard to believe. You're right they don't want to carry a musket, but that's because muskets are not sexy. They don't want superdrones either, because superdrones are not sexy. 2A people just like guns. Guns, culturally, are sexy.

I don't think it's sexy , though I wish people would stop using this word for things like... war machines. Gun culture is just a subculture in the US, and I agree weaponized drones aren't 1:1 with guns to gun nuts.

I don’t think they’re sexy either.

Re: There is a shadow hanging over this Fable thing

#330

Post by zhoBEENG »

resters wrote: post #320
zhoBEENG wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am almost afraid to ask, but do you have a source? When I put your claim in a couple of search engines all I get is your comment here.

I'm referring to the process described here: https://www.dhs.gov/cbphome

Sorry, I mean about David Sacks fraudulently obtaining citizenship.
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