What about punishment on AI exponential for security failures, electric chairs for CEO of high ranked frontier models that gets jailbroken by geopolitical adversaries.
Policy on the AI Exponential
81–90 of 280 posts
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#82AI is a lethal risk to mankind and should be totally rolled back for a century of close research before we try again.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#83>AI Exponential How much of the policy prescription changes if the exponential is actually just a series of sigmoids[1]? [1]: https://x.com/ylecun/status/1799064075487572133
Ooof a Yann LeCun quote from '24, a risky time period to be mining his quotes from lol. But I think broadly he's right, but the argument is: we don't see any evidence for the curve flattening, and we should plan for it _not_ to flatten any time soon. "It will eventually slow down" is true but its meaningless if you dont put any sort of time period on this.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#84I appreciate the critical perspective on political and economic power, as long as it's consequently followed, and every willingness for cooperation and the creation of fair rules is good.
What makes me doubt that Dario Amodei has really internalized the problem is the lack of humility, the stance that it's just important that the "good guys" keep the technology away from the "bad guys".
If you really want to provide AI with public benefit, you need to prevent power concentration. How? Some unpolished ideas, I'd be happy to hear yours:
- Avoid getting too close to an administration that is openly attacking democracy and is not interested in the benefit of humanity or mutually beneficial cooperation.
- Don't support surveillance. Non-(US-)Americans have human rights and privacy, too. Prepare for a situation where a government tries to convert your compute infrastructure into surveillance infrastructure.
- Support the creation of community data centers. In other words, build data centers together with local communities and make sure they profit from them.
- Advocate for laws that require transparency about resource usage and emissions of data centers.
- If you don't want an AI race, make sure that other countries don't need to fear the US concentrating too much power. Create institutions that can be trusted by other countries, too.
EDIT: I forgot:
- If qualified labor will actually turn out to get devalued, we also need a plan to prevent states from turning into rentier states that don't depend on a well-educated society any longer.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#85I like that he comes up with new laws and regulations for AI companies. Can I suggest some more? - You shall not embed copyrighted material in your models. - You shall not bombard every little website in existence with 1 million scraping queries per day. - You shall not use your political influence to pump and dump your AI (or rocket?) company. - You shall not imperill the whole IT sector by buying all CPU and memory…
Trustbusting should absolutely be included as well. One of the biggest immediate threats is the concentration of wealth into a very tiny number of companies.
Yep we need new laws for this. The current laws end up in years long lawsuits and no real change.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#86Its hard to read the first half of this as anything other than regulatory capture propaganda. It really all ties together as: > AI has become a major commercial technology >Frontier AI models, like airplanes, should be required to go through technical testing and auditing, and their release should be blocked or reversed as a threat to public safety if they do not meet high standards of safety > AI companies that deve…
Can you explain how this is attempted regulatory capture? To start a lab now which can actually compete for the frontier (i.e. and pass the "Threshold of compute" needed to get regulated) a lab / company would need a ton of money. Surely a well funded operation of that kind can deal with the regulations.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#87I appreciate the critical perspective on political and economic power, as long as it's consequently followed, and every willingness for cooperation and the creation of fair rules is good. What makes me doubt that Dario Amodei has really internalized the problem is the lack of humility, the stance that it's just important that the "good guys" keep the technology away from the "bad guys". If you really want to provide…
(On the other hand, I have been fooled by too many billionaires claiming to act in the interest of democracy and freedom. I once fell for a billionaire buying a social media platform, claiming to be a free speech fundamentalist, and it didn't age too well.)
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#88I feel completely baffled by the other responses on this thread. People viewing this purely as a marketing stunt, regulatory capture or attack on their freedoms, with seemingly no appreciation of the real threat that AI could pose to society and even humanity given its current rate of progress. I'm not going to claim that the CEO of pre-IPO company has no incentive to bolster the claims of his tech, but to completely…
Or simply we use AI and see on the ground what it can and can't do. I can generally trust an agent for solved problems, but the more something deviates from established industry standards (i.e. what was relentlessly scraped) I have an increasingly harder time not having constant oversight of what it's doing, no matter the specs I put on the md. Personally I feel most of the improvement in the last year comes from too…
You're talking as if this is a static thing though. It's the God of Gaps [1] but for humanity's special sauce.
Two years ago, I couldn't trust an LLM to do anything that wasn't straight forward boiler plate.
One year ago, I was pretty solid at writing algorithms that were combinations of existing ideas.
Now, Fable is outputting stuff that I would genuinely consider to be creative and original if a colleague had presented it to me.
Yes, maybe the code style still isn't great, but given the pattern of the last few years, it feels correct (a priori) to assume that this gap isn't going to keep closing.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#89"AI is advancing at a lightning pace—in only four years, AI models have gone from barely being able to write a coherent line of code to writing most of the code at major AI companies. Similar gains have been made in biology, physics, math, finance, law, translation, and many other fields."
This is a massive exaggeration. The advancement in the automation of computer code writing has been impressive and is obviously, at least in the short term, changing the software engineering industry substantially. Most other fields have not been affected to nearly the same degree. Certainly not biology, physics, finance, and law (I don't know enough about the math and translation fields to speak to those).
---
"3. Accelerating AI’s positive impact..."
This whole section is the type of thing that often comes out of the mouths of Silicon Valley tech executives without a pharma background. It indicates a thorough lack of understanding of the realities of pharmaceutical research. What he is describing here is removing many of the solid, evidentiary rules that are in place to make sure that the drugs reaching the market actually work and replacing them with proxy predictions. Look, my least favourite part of the job is the animal testing, and I would be hugely grateful if that could be eliminated from the drug discovery pipeline. People have been trying to do that for a long time. But it's extremely difficult. Biology is very, very complicated. Our understanding of how processes in organisms work are vague and approximative. This is not computer code. Even if Anthropic somehow got all of Big Pharma to hand them their proprietary data, it would only scratch the surface of the understanding that is needed to solve these kind of problems. Due to these realities, the program Amodei is describing here would, effectively, open a floodgate of drugs on the market that don't actually do what they are supposed to and are more likely to have unidentified toxicity.
Re: Policy on the AI Exponential
#90Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why are they not preaching for protected weights, but public , ie, under state control? What do you feel his posture will be if that is starting to be discussed? Also, on an unrelated note, why would you have an account for 5 years and only now post your second comment? AI has been an existential threat for years, why only now? This is a pattern I am seeing all over the place on HN in the last year in AI threads, and…
Your first point is very reasonable, and I agree that that is something Dario would likely be more opposed to. However, my point isn't that I think Dario is our saviour who we should follow the every word of. As with everyone, his opinions should be filtered through the lens of his incentives. That said, I don't understand the knee-jerk reaction by many commenters to completely disregard the many important points he'…
You write well & HN is better when there are more well-written people on the opposite side of the consensus