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Policy on the AI Exponential

darioamodei.com

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Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#31

Post by bigfishrunning »

pdhborges wrote: post #7

What will be Amodei's job after we have AIs that are better at evrything than humans? Is the AI going to care about our stock exchange playgrounds that reward the future Antropic stock holders?

> after we have AIs that are better at evrything than humans.

That this is worded so definitively is a testament to the success of the AI industry. The idea that LLMs will be "better at evrything than humans"[sic] is far from certain.

I suspect that if someone does invent a machine like this, it won't look like a 2026 LLM, and it will be far far in the future. everybody relax.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#32

Post by bashtoni »

iamniels wrote: post #20

I like that he comes up with new laws and regulations for AI companies. Can I suggest some more? - You shall not embed copyrighted material in your models. - You shall not bombard every little website in existence with 1 million scraping queries per day. - You shall not use your political influence to pump and dump your AI (or rocket?) company. - You shall not imperill the whole IT sector by buying all CPU and memory…

You missed a couple ofvery important ones:

- Your AI data centres will run only on renewable energy

- Your AI data centres will not use evaporative cooling

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#33

Post by [deleted] »

iamniels wrote: post #20

I like that he comes up with new laws and regulations for AI companies. Can I suggest some more? - You shall not embed copyrighted material in your models. - You shall not bombard every little website in existence with 1 million scraping queries per day. - You shall not use your political influence to pump and dump your AI (or rocket?) company. - You shall not imperill the whole IT sector by buying all CPU and memory…

[deleted]

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#34

Post by ofjcihen »

snaking0776 wrote: post #23

I know this is likely just for IPO hype but when I read things like this I sometimes wonder if I must be missing something. I use agents everyday and find them really useful and they save me a lot of headache. At the same time I find that if I let it self-direct at a high level at all it generally makes bad choices that cause me headaches later so I can’t really give them autonomy. Enough people seem to believe this…

N+1. This is my experience and for the most part the people that I work with share the same feeling.

A highly enthusiastic concussion enthusiast with 10 hands is how one person put it.

These are people in different fields but highly accomplished so I’m feeling comfortable sharing their assessment.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#35

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

TobyTheCamel wrote: post #30

I feel completely baffled by the other responses on this thread. People viewing this purely as a marketing stunt, regulatory capture or attack on their freedoms, with seemingly no appreciation of the real threat that AI could pose to society and even humanity given its current rate of progress. I'm not going to claim that the CEO of pre-IPO company has no incentive to bolster the claims of his tech, but to completely…

I agree that AI poses a threat to society. I act on this by not developing world-leading AI models and offering them to anyone willing to pay top dollar, while funneling that money back into accelerating AI capabilities development. Maybe Dario would consider taking a similar ethical position? Maybe he would support restrictions and taxes on data center construction, in order to slow down the pace?

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#36

Post by anothermathbozo »

> A wide range of pro-employment policy incentives can help to slow or reduce job displacement, including: wage insurance policies that compensate people when they have to take a lower-paying job, retention tax incentives to encourage employers not to make layoffs, workforce training grants, or infrastructure to facilitate matching of employers to employees to speed the rate of labor market adaptation. While the particulars of which interventions are best will depend on what kind of labor displacement AI brings, we should readily accept the costs and market inefficiencies that these policies could entail, particularly as they are likely to be offset by AI-driven productivity gains.

People get income from one of three places: capital income, labor income, or the welfare state. If this technology truly unlocks a holy panacea of productivity with a commensurate drop in employment then capital’s share of the national income can and should provide for a wider and deeper welfare state. Nothing new need be invented here. Dario’s long and only somewhat organized list of policy interventions makes appropriate preparedness sound like a manic pulling of any and all levers when a simple theory of distribution will suffice.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#37

Post by aspenmartin »

snaking0776 wrote: post #23

I know this is likely just for IPO hype but when I read things like this I sometimes wonder if I must be missing something. I use agents everyday and find them really useful and they save me a lot of headache. At the same time I find that if I let it self-direct at a high level at all it generally makes bad choices that cause me headaches later so I can’t really give them autonomy. Enough people seem to believe this…

It's nice that people are genuinely curious about this.

- All of your observations are absolutely dead on

- Yet, we have very very very robust scaling laws that as Dario points out we've had and validated for over a decade. This extends to downstream measures like METR time horizon and compsosite benchmarks like the epoch capability index.

- If you look at where you're at now, which is again dead on, you're looking at a point on a curve that is quite easy to extrapolate, but less easy to tell when exactly on the curve a certain capability or use case undergoes a step change from error rates dropping below a threshold that is hard to anticipate in advance.

So while Dario / other frontier CEOs are understandably unpalatable, they are absolutely spot on with a call out that all of this is bound to happen and happen quickly, and that's without solving several core problems that haven't been solved yet (e.g. continual learning). In 2023, coding agents were just laughable. Yet they followed the same predictable training curves. Anyone looking at the data can see the obvious, and anyone reading newspaper headlines or hacker news comments would get a very different impression.

Re: Policy on the AI Exponential

#38

Post by patcon »

The comments here. They make me feel that we are so doomed.

We all want to nuclear codes so badly. We are addicted to intelligence and labour so badly that we simply can't concieve that a pro-social actor might want us all not to have it, and for good reason.

I mean... Obviously, insiders like Oppenheimer (who dedicated their lives to considering the implications of the technology under discussion), they just feared nuclear proliferation because they wanted all the profits for themselves, right :(

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