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Where is the AI jobs crisis?

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Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#211

Post by heathrow83829 »

gruez wrote: post #138
heathrow83829 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

shelter isn't just a cherry picked item. It's by an far the largest spending category, that and healthcare. I couldn't care less about all the other categories, personally.

>shelter isn't just a cherry picked item. It's by an far the largest spending category, that and healthcare. The BLS agrees. That's why "shelter" is weighted 35.6% in the CPI basket, by far the biggest item. > I couldn't care less about all the other categories, personally. If we're going by what people "care" about (whatever that means), the basket would probably be like 70% gas prices, 20% grocery prices, and 10% f…

yeah, staggering. it's utterly amazing how much people care about gas prices. i can't wrap my mind around it. I mean, would people really rather be out on the street rather than get an EV or god forbid a hybrid?

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#212

Post by MoonWalk »

BaconPackets wrote: post #3

I'll need to look at the underlying data, but it seems that the job "classification/category" should be more important than the raw number. A boost in lower paid/service industry jobs does not mean that there wasn't a loss in a category where AI can be more easily dropped into existing businesses. Data : https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Exactly. Without any specificity of job categories, this chart and conclusion are unsubstantiated garbage.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#213

Post by lesuorac »

alexsmirnov wrote: post #201
wombatpm wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Old joke: Bill Gates walks into a bar. On average everyone there is a millionaire

I more like my high school math teacher explanation: "Put your one hand on dry ice, another in the boiling water. On average, you feel warm and cozy"

Except dry ice is -100 and boiling water is 200 so you feel hot and not cozy.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#214

Post by MoonWalk »

emp17344 wrote: post #134
atleastoptimal wrote: post #69

It's crazy that so often I see articles, here on HN and elsewhere, where some pundit claims that there is no AI job crisis, AI isn't replacing any jobs, that layoffs are actually due to post-pandemic ZIRP overhiring, etc. But then people who work in actual tech companies come in and explicitly say they are not hiring any juniors anymore specifically because AI is good enough to do most of what juniors do, and that se…

If you’re so confident, show us some data to debunk the article. You have a weird chip on shoulder, but no economic evidence to justify it.

I think that's coming at it backward. The article lacks data. Nobody should be expected to run around writing the article that's not there. As it stands, it's unsubstantiated junk.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#215

Post by lesuorac »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #19
BaconPackets wrote: post #3

I'll need to look at the underlying data, but it seems that the job "classification/category" should be more important than the raw number. A boost in lower paid/service industry jobs does not mean that there wasn't a loss in a category where AI can be more easily dropped into existing businesses. Data : https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Average weekly and hourly earnings were up in May [1], though “real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [2]. Nominal wages being up rejects the hypothesis that folks are being downsized into lower-paying roles. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t19.htm [2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

IIUC, it's too early to taking "0.5%" as fact. Need to wait a few more months to see if any revisions occur.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#216

Post by lesuorac »

dw_arthur wrote: post #198
kalb_almas wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Now, to your point. Is the code all that clean? Nope... but who cares? Typically, this is not the type of phrase that is said right before everything goes extremely well

I assume they are working on low stakes software. Does it really matter if you use an LLM to code a scheduling app for a hair salon or veterinary clinic?

Meh, stakes don't matter.

So much of the financial world runs off excel.

Think about all the geneticists that complain about excel re-writing DNA sequences.

It doesn't matter if its high stakes or low stakes. People use the software that generates the results they like. Not the software that is "correct to use".

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#217

Post by gruez »

elektronika wrote: post #148
gruez wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if they're using the CPI then it can be very misleading. One need only compare nominal wages vs nominal rents per square foot for the last 50 years to see that actual wages have dropped by 30% and yet the "real" hourly average wage calculated via the CPI is flat, falsly implying that actual wages have not dropped. Yes, if you get to pick prices of arbitrary items to compare against, it's easy to come to whatever co…

CPI functions to obscure disproportionate price increases in essentials by lumping them in with cheapening commodities (e.g. electronics) that have a high demand elasticity. It's as much a choice to to use CPI to come to the conclusion things are fine, as it would be picking "arbitrary items" such as the essentials: food, shelter, medical care, and transportation that would paint a picture distinctly less fine.

>CPI functions to obscure disproportionate price increases in essentials by lumping them in with cheapening commodities (e.g. electronics) that have a high demand elasticity.

Right, because it's not "essentials price index" or whatever.

>as it would be picking "arbitrary items" such as the essentials: food, shelter, medical care, and transportation that would paint a picture distinctly less fine.

The BLS makes the constituent price indices available as well as their weights, so you can easily vibecode an "essentials" index.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#218

Post by OptionOfT »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #116
OptionOfT wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There seems to be a desire for a narrative that AI really just can't replace productive work, and that it's all a mirage. Yes, and juniors aren't known for their productive work in the beginning. That's not their purpose. Their purpose is to do the mundane work, because it is important for them to become less junior and more senior. That is robbed of them. Which in 5-10 years means the need for senior developers is…

people keep saying that assuming that in 5-10 years AI won’t be as good as senior engineers

If that is the case there is a worldwide crisis. It means that nearly all knowledge work will be gone.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#219

Post by piloto_ciego »

lesuorac wrote: post #216
dw_arthur wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume they are working on low stakes software. Does it really matter if you use an LLM to code a scheduling app for a hair salon or veterinary clinic?

Meh, stakes don't matter. So much of the financial world runs off excel. Think about all the geneticists that complain about excel re-writing DNA sequences. It doesn't matter if its high stakes or low stakes. People use the software that generates the results they like. Not the software that is "correct to use".

This is it.

Re: Where is the AI jobs crisis?

#220

Post by piloto_ciego »

nwatson wrote: post #169
piloto_ciego wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to be "that guy" but you're crazy if you don't see AI being able to do greenfield projects you'd accept. I mean, in your defense, last year I think you would have been right, but right now? Codex rocks, as does Claude. I am literally making money shipping a greenfield project to a customer right now. I'm basically a cheap consultant that is incrementally adding features to make something exactly what they want…

I'm curious, did you choose "blind pilot" as your username before or after your adoption of LLMs for projects?

I am a blind pilot lol, but I’m not going to dox myself further
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