I'm generally going to avoid betting against Elon.
The downvotes are a good indicator you have the right idea.
Doesn't really matter. Elon just has a good track record of delivering value for investors, and will move mountains to make it happen.
We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
271–280 of 301 posts
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#272I need to understand what possible benefit there is to doing DCs in space. The cost would be, no pun intended, fucking astronomical. The cooling situation would make no sense at all -- the major up-and-coming application of DCs, LLM training, has absurd cooling requirements even here on earth where convective cooling is an option, to the point where many DCs use open-loop cooling. Latency might be better, in some cas…
It's so you don't have to ask anybody for permission. That's it. Right now, 70% of the country is at least skeptical of DCs and at worst absolutely hate them. NIMBY is basically the rallying cry. That's why you go "up" (if they can make starship work). The physics is "hard" but doable, you can keep them cool enough in a sun synchronous orbit. The math pencils out. It's not my field, but back of the envelope math seem…
> It's so you don't have to ask anybody for permission. That's it.
I would think this is a very temporary victory. You only don't have to ask permission right now because nobody is doing it. But space does actually belong to people, as in there are a lot of different stakeholders with their own motivations. And, that also naturally includes every country's military. I don't foresee everyone just rolling over and accepting massive amounts of space junk without at least getting their piece of the pie.
I also don't think we gave up on space as a country. We have Artemis. I think we sort of realized that there isn't much in space. Outside of science-y stuff and research, there's really nothing to do. There's no products to be made, and our country revolves around consumerism. I think space DC's will be the same story. Does it make sense from a money perspective? Because I think that's really the only perspective that matters.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
My man, it's 2026. How long will you have to wait for the spacex claims to become "not too far off now"?
Which claims? I’ve been a SpaceX investor for about 8 years now, I’m completely satisfied with their progress, even despite the Starship setbacks, they’ve done astounding work on all fronts. I’m not holding my breath for humans on Mars or us becoming a Kardashev 2 civilization, if that’s what you’re asking.
Do you hold hopes for finding a revenue stream to outweigh the massive influx of AI debt Musk glued onto SpaceX?
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
Which claims? I’ve been a SpaceX investor for about 8 years now, I’m completely satisfied with their progress, even despite the Starship setbacks, they’ve done astounding work on all fronts. I’m not holding my breath for humans on Mars or us becoming a Kardashev 2 civilization, if that’s what you’re asking.
Do you hold hopes for finding a revenue stream to outweigh the massive influx of AI debt Musk glued onto SpaceX?
It looks like they're taking on $20B in debt to clean up xAI's debt, and then paying it off with the equity raise? Do you feel that's very significant for them? 1% dilution takes care of it.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
Like how he figured out how to destroy half the enterprise value of Twitter? Like how he figured out how to promise full self driving cars in about six months? For eight years running? Like how he figured out how to cut USAID programs that prevented and treated malaria and tuberculosis with no plan or warning? There is never going to be a long-term colony on Mars. It is the most childish conceit imaginable.
> There is never going to be a long-term colony on Mars No there will be. But I don't think it'll be in our lifetimes.
I really don't see how you can be sure of that. Who would want to live in a steel cave for their entire life? Anything we need from Mars could be extracted with automated machinery.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
Space GPUs are stupid, so is hyperloop, so is the Vegas Loop; robotaxis don't work, cybertruck sucks, the humanoid robots don't work, the new roadster is nowhere to be seen. SpaceX blew up an entire launchpad because Musk thought flame diverters are gay, or something. And, yes, Twitter is now a shithole.
Every single one of those examples is both valid and - I believe, at least - misunderstood. Musk has a singular goal as far as I can tell: to make humanity a multi-planetary species. All of those things are testing the boundaries of what's possible in areas that will or could be very important for building a permanent settlement on Mars. I posit that while there's much room for debate around whether or not those proj…
How about we get our own house in order before messing with other planets?
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
This should frankly be disqualifying for any company trying to go public. Super voting shares have their place but there's no scenario in which overall control of the company can be retained by super voting shareholders who make up a small minority of the overall shareholders. The point of a company going public is not to just distribute possible profits among speculators, but to give the public a meaningful voice in…
This is not a new thing. Off the top of my head, I can think of similar arrangements at Meta, Alphabet, and the New York Times Company.
Whataboutism isn't an argument.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#278And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…
If we were a saner society, this would not be a valid way to carry out corporate governance. This is just sole proprietorship with window dressing.
It's not that different from an NFT.
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is not a new thing. Off the top of my head, I can think of similar arrangements at Meta, Alphabet, and the New York Times Company.
Whataboutism isn't an argument.
I'm pretty sick of everyone labeling points they don't like "whataboutism". The reason I brought it up is if you're going use that as a reason to get the SEC or Congress or whomever more involved you're going to have to come up with a reason beyond "I don't like Elon Musk".
Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
#280You can absolutely level this claim against Tesla too. When deliveries dropped a year ago, the stock price didn't go down. Tesla's stock is disconnected from the fundamentals and every stock investor today knows this. Why would SpaceX be any different? If anything it would be even more disconnected from the fundamentals than Tesla is, given how much more control it gives Elon. SpaceX stock is a bet on Elon, full stop…
He seems pretty good at figuring stuff out.
You are downvoted, but I think you are right.
He is not popular. I am sort of reminded of folks from hollywood or tech who collide with politics... and not everybody becomes ronald reagan.
Also, someone doesn't get to be the richest man without controversy.
But controversial or not, I think he has been a net positive.
Would we so profoundly have electric cars if tesla hadn't shaken the status quo? Sure, now ford has cancelled the lightning, but they now have people who know about EV technology deep within their stodgy ICE stronghold.
Right now there are 14,000+ satellites in earth orbit, 11,000+ are from the US, and 10,000+ of them are from spacex.
By any objective measure, he has figured stuff out. And he has shaken things up.