241–250 of 301 posts
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He also claimed in 2015 that nobody would be driving their own cars by 2018. Meanwhile I've seen a driverless car once in my life.
Sure, I think everyone knows he's not batting 1000. I've used Waymos and FSD, and they were both great, so I don't think we're too far off now.
How long will you have to wait for the spacex claims to become "not too far off now"?
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Look at Tesla stock and you have your answer. This will be another meme stock
It will be interesting to see how this actually plays out. You could either be 100% right, or this could be another exercise in failed human hubris. I.e., Elon and the financial architects behind this IPO are assuming that it will work just like Tesla. However, in the back of my mind I have to wonder if Elon has spent too much social capital for this kind of cult of meme stock strategy to work again. This plan has po…
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Yeah you can’t go into this with any expectations or later complaints. Everyone knows at this point that he’s going to do whatever the fuck he wants. If you give him money, that’s what it’s for. I say this entirely neutrally. Some people want to invest in that—and he’s made a boatload of money for those who have thus far!—while others find it insane. But you don’t get to buy into this and complain.
If you have ETFs or index tracking funds in your 401k you're going to buy it. In fact, you'll buy more of it than is going on sale. Since they only need to issue 5% of the stock for it to show up as a 20% market cap in the QQQ index and tracking funds own over 20% of the market, they pretty much have to buy all the shares. Welcome to market manipulation 101.
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What kinds of things he's delivered do you have in mind?
Let's see. If Paypal was his only legacy he would have already done 99% more than most people but then he went on to build a car company that was the best selling electric car brand in the world for a decade and in the process standardized not just electric charging but the plug we're all using today. Then they released a home battery with a sub 10 ms ATS which is necessary for seamless in-house grid/off grid transit…
Wat? Are you talking about NACS? If so, a minority of non-Tesla EVs currently on the road use it in the US, and AFAIK zero outside of North America.
And even in the US, the vast majority of EV charging stations are AC and use J1772, a SAE standard that predates Tesla's existence.
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150 kW is tiny, that is a single rack. Would have to launch a huge number of them to match the GW data centers being built. There is also a lot of overhead for each one. If Starlink didn't exist, then it could make sense to put edge data centers in orbit. But Starlink means can put edge computing everywhere on the ground.
In 2025, SpaceX put 3,200 Starlink satellites into orbit with 122 Falcon 9 launches. That's about 2,000 tonnes. In about 2 more years, as the Starlink constellation reaches its licensed size limit, it should transition from growth mode to maintenance mode, freeing up over 1,000 tonnes of extremely reliable launch capacity. What could that 1,000 tonnes per year get your in terms of sell-able data center capacity, and…
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Are you for real ? HN yep
Yes, I am for real. The Colossus datacenter that xAI built cost $7 billion. [1] https://www.globaldatacenterhub.com/p/can-elon-musks-7b-colo...
And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…
This should frankly be disqualifying for any company trying to go public. Super voting shares have their place but there's no scenario in which overall control of the company can be retained by super voting shareholders who make up a small minority of the overall shareholders. The point of a company going public is not to just distribute possible profits among speculators, but to give the public a meaningful voice in…
And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…
It is seriously baffling to me who is going to buy shares in this with 1) this structure and 2) at this valuation. And it is a LOT of money that he is floating ($77B) so there have to be dumb people at scale for this to work.
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That cooling system is … aggressive. 110m^2 of radiator to dissipate 120kW average heat. That’s about 1.1kW/m^2, which works out to very close to 100C at the radiator under absolutely perfect conditions (absolute zero ambient temperature, emissivity 1, no adverse geometric effects). Radiating into 300K ambient, it’s 134C. (300K ambient is about what you get if the sun is visible or if a large fraction of what the rad…
I assume the radiators will be in the shadow behind the solar panels and never facing the sun. That's seems like the easiest quick win.
On the flip side of all this, the Starlink satellites work, and I would expect SpaceX to have some idea what they’re doing. Starlink satellites have largish power systems (smaller than these proposed AI satellites, but not outrageously so). They presumably turn a smaller fraction of their power into low-temperature heat: the ion thrusters and the various transmitters emit a good deal of non-thermal power. A good fraction of Starlink’s electronics way well function at rather higher junction temperatures than 100C. And I imagine that Starlink satellites are economical to operate at an average of much less than 100% power. So I don’t really know what’s going on. It’s plausible that Starlink gets away with a cooling system that’s not so great for a compute satellite.
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He seems pretty good at figuring stuff out.
Like how he figured out how to destroy half the enterprise value of Twitter? Like how he figured out how to promise full self driving cars in about six months? For eight years running? Like how he figured out how to cut USAID programs that prevented and treated malaria and tuberculosis with no plan or warning? There is never going to be a long-term colony on Mars. It is the most childish conceit imaginable.
No there will be. But I don't think it'll be in our lifetimes.